Matt Lanza

First Arctic air of winter invades the East, with a stormy California on the horizon

In brief: Today we talk about the first dose of Arctic air this cold season, in addition to the chance of lake effect snow. We’ve also got a look at California which may shift quite a bit stormier later next week. Plus a lot of news to catch up on and the latest on NOAA/NWS challenges.

Big warm up, big cooldown

Autumn is going to autumn heading into the weekend. A big warm up is in store for the eastern half of the country ahead of a potent Arctic cold front. This will deliver a taste of early winter to much of the Eastern and Southern U.S. Houston, Austin, and San Antonio may threaten a record high temperature on both Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures over the next 5 days are going to go a little haywire, as is the case in autumn. (Tropical Tidbits)

But a cold front plowing east on Saturday and Sunday will eradicate this warm weather and replace with the first real dose of Arctic air of the season. Morning lows on Monday and especially Tuesday will threaten records, mainly in the Southeast.

Forecast or near forecast record lows on Tuesday morning in the Southeast. (NOAA WPC)

We will see frost and freeze make it all the way down close to I-10 to the east of Houston. Lows in the teens and 20s will be likely to the north from Tennessee into the Midwest. Chicago should be in the mid-20s on Monday morning, Minneapolis near 20, and Detroit mid-20s.

In addition, the first legitimate lake effect snow of the season looks likely behind this system. A few inches of accumulation could add up near the lakeshore in Michigan, parts of Indiana, and perhaps New York or Ohio. Not a major event right now, but it’s worth keeping an eye on. It’s that time of year.

(NWS Gaylord, MI)

Temperatures will warm up again next week.

West Coast storminess later next week

It’s a bit early to get into specifics, but it does appear that a significant shift south in moisture is going to occur next week in the West. This should allow for significant rain to impact California, as well as significant Sierra snow.

Wednesday’s 8 to 14 day hazards outlook. (NOAA CPC)

Again, it’s too early to get into details, but ensemble modeling seems to support up to an inch or so of moisture in SoCal and 1 to 3 inches in NorCal. Operational guidance, including European AI modeling suggests there is higher side risk to these totals as well.

7-day precipitation anomaly from European ensemble for days 7 to 13 ending Nov 18. (Tropical Tidbits)

Bottom line: It looks like a substantial wet storm or series of storms may impact much of California by later next week.

Newsy bits

Help me close my tabs by checking out some news from this week.

Derechos: Cool news out of Oklahoma where researchers are embarking on a project to catalog derecho events (hundreds of miles of damaging thunderstorm winds, many in the higher end of 75 to 100 mph) back to the 1950s. The idea is to try and understand what the correct environment for derecho development may be, which would help improve forecast accuracy. (University of Oklahoma)

Roanoke, Virginia: It’s been 40 years since a terrible flood struck Roanoke in 1985, causing $200 million in damage and killing 10 people. Massive flood mitigation efforts ensued, and it’s been successful, though there is still much work to do. I strongly encourage you also read Kevin Myatt’s flood synopsis of that event and how Hurricane Juan did and did not cause it.

Chattanooga, Tennessee: In Chattanooga, the Tennessee Department of Transportation is assessing how their infrastructure performed during floods in August that damaged 309 homes or businesses. The rain that fell was a 400 to 500 year event which blew past the design thresholds. We read about this a lot. We are getting better data through NOAA’s Atlas 15 project, but even that may become somewhat outdated as atmospheric moisture is increasing, leading to more frequent heavy rainfall events. (WTVC)

Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina: In Sullivan’s Island, a location that is seeing more frequent coastal flooding, the town produced a 154 page mitigation plan. It included policy recommendations. Despite the fact that it addresses an obvious problem, some residents are skeptical. It boils down to property rights and taxes due to the cost of mitigation. One councilmember chastised the community for not speaking up during one of the 15 sessions the town had to question the experts behind the plan. Democracy is messy and requires participation. People need to involve themselves in these discussions. (Charleston Post and Courier)

Kipnuk, Alaska: In Kipnuk, one of the villages severely impacted by Typhoon Halong’s remnants in October, a $20 million grant was earmarked by the EPA to help protect its infrastructure from flooding. A few months before the storm, the EPA informed Kipnuk that the “objectives of the award are no longer consistent with EPA funding priorities,” and they canceled the grant. While it may not have helped during Halong, it’s a reminder of how much mitigation work needs to be done across the country and why grant programs like this are critical to villages like Kipnuk. (Alaska Public Media)

Milwaukee, Wisconsin: In August, southeast Wisconsin was battered by some extreme, historic flooding. Now, FEMA and the Trump Administration are denying flood mitigation funding for public infrastructure. As U.S. Rep. Gwen Moore points out, and as I heard former FEMA Director Deanne Criswell talk about yesterday here in Houston, state and local governments can’t do these things alone. The tactic since this administration took office has been to rip the band aid off without a viable alternative in place or giving anyone a chance to prepare for what happens next. “Oh well” is not a solution. (Wisconsin Examiner)

NOAA issues

Speaking of… I don’t want to overdo this section, but as has been the case for the last several months, we continue to have reasons to be concerned about NOAA in the current administration.

Volunteer work?

First, whether you blame Republicans or Democrats for the government shutdown that is currently gridlocking the country, it does not matter. In Washington it’s a chess match. To most average Americans, no one really cares who is responsible, they just want a solution. Alan Gerard’s “Balanced Weather” had a great post late last week on the heroic work that the Hurricane Hunters performed during Hurricane Melissa. Not only are these people not getting paid at the moment, they were flying into Melissa, an already hazardous mission, with extra volunteers and smaller than normal crews. They may have made some of their most dangerous flights in modern times doing this too. Let’s just repeat that: Volunteers. Doing arguably the most hazardous job in all of meteorology. Why is this? Because of the shutdown. And I am sure the fact that the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA is operating at half-capacity thanks to probationary firings earlier this year ordered by DOGE and the many retirements that were encouraged is contributing to this as well. This also comes after the administration’s proposed budget, a list of their priorities, would have scaled back hurricane hunter flights into storms.

We owe them a strong debt of gratitude for the work they do, and yes flying into a storm that is bearing down on Jamaica is part of their job responsibilities. Why? Because America has always been the leader in this space. It’s part of what has made American global science leadership great. I’m not sure relying on retired volunteers is a great way to ensure that continues, however. This administration’s handling of NOAA runs counter to the greatness mantra they regularly espouse. Anyway, read Alan’s post on this topic.

Another deadly New York City flood event last week, plus an update on Melissa’s damage and a look at this week

In brief: We have an update on Melissa’s damage and some other news stories that have emerged in the wake of the storm. We also take a quasi-deep dive into flooding that hit New York City on Thursday. It wasn’t necessarily unexpected, but its impact was probably worse than expected. Also, a look at the upcoming week and an atmospheric river event in the West.

Melissa’s latest

The death toll has surpassed 60 in the Caribbean, including 28 in Jamaica and 31 in Haiti from Melissa. Relief is slowly trickling in, but the logistics of getting to a place like Black River is exceedingly difficult at the moment. The tangential effects of a storm like this are starting to come to light as well, as the farming and fishing sector of Jamica, broadly, not just in the hardest hit areas will be greatly impacted in the months ahead. Other perspectives, such as from Canada where seasonal workers contribute a great deal to their agriculture sector have provided some additional context on how this has and will impact the country.

We’ll repost our list of links here that point to organizations directly helping affected areas.

United Way of Jamaica will donate directly to Jamaicans in the affected areas.

The American Friends of Jamaica is a fund that has been active for decades helping Jamaica.

Give Directly will provide cash relief directly to those impacted by the storm.

Samaritan’s Purse has set up a field hospital in Jamaica and is sending aid as quickly as possible.

The Center for Disaster Philanthropy which is focused on medium and long-term recovery. When the media and volunteers all leave, there will still be enormous amounts of work to do to recover from a storm of this magnitude. CDP works to help fill that gap.

New York City flooding

Lost in the headlines around Melissa and probably Halloween was a pretty terribly flooding event that hit New York City on Thursday.

Radar estimated rain totals on Thursday in the New York City metro area. (NOAA NSSL)

Two people died, one in Manhattan and one in Flatbush, Brooklyn after being trapped in flooded basements. This has some echoes from Hurricane Ida’s remnants in 2021, which killed over 12 in Queens, many in basements. Radar estimated rain totals above show only about 1 to 2 inches in most of the city, with some isolated pockets of 2 to 3 on the east side of Queens and in Nassau County and north of the city. That may not seem like much, but torrential rains passed through the area between about 2:30 and 4 PM, dumping anywhere from 1 to 1.5 inches in an hour.

A radar loop around New York City from Thursday. (RadarScope)

Those intense rates, coupled with New York City’s less than perfect drainage system led to very rapid onset flash flooding, exacerbated by about a month and change of below normal rainfall, which likely left lots of debris blocking drainage. The New York City area had been placed in a marginal risk (1/4) for flash flooding on Thursday.

Thursday’s excessive rainfall outlook issued just after midnight that morning. (NOAA WPC)

The morning forecast discussion from the New York City NWS office described the situation that day:

The heaviest falls late Thursday afternoon and early evening as the core of LLJ (low level jet) passes, and localized rates could briefly approach or exceed 1 in/hr. Based on the 00Z HREF, the most likely location for this for be in NJ, west of NYC. This presents the possibility of mainly nuisance flooding, mainly for urbanized and/or poor drainage areas. Otherwise, the threat for flash flooding is low and localized.

The timing was spot on. The idea of urbanized and poor drainage flooding was spot on, though in this case “nuisance” probably feels the wrong word choice in hindsight, but it’s likely what had been expected. And, frankly it just underscores how serious flooding can be. This was really a nuisance flooding event brought on by the type of rain that occur in NYC more than once a year. It ended up being damaging and sadly fatal. While work on improving New York’s resilience to extreme weather continues, I think it’s fair to say that they have a long way yet to go. It also highlights the challenges of pinpointing the areas at most risk to a flash flood event. While model guidance had favored New Jersey, a slight deviation placed it over New York City. Both newer and older cities have their fair share of flooding challenges.

The week ahead

Looking at the forecast precipitation for this week, it’s pretty clear where the headlines will be: The West Coast. An atmospheric river will crash into the West Coast with a couple storms that look set to dump heavy rain and some mountain snow in the Cascades south into northern California, mainly north of the Bay Area.

A wet West Coast as the week goes on. (Pivotal Weather)

Additional heavy precipitation will fall inland across northern Idaho and the Bitterroots. This will be a fairly warm storm overall, so snow levels will be up around 5,000 to 6,000 feet in the northern Rockies and into Washington, possibly even a bit higher to the west and mostly out of reach to the south (over 8,000 feet).

A strong, warm atmospheric river (possibly level 4/5) will focus on coastal Oregon and northern California in particular. (Scripps Center for Western Weather & Water Extremes)

The temperature maps look quite warm, especially in the Rockies, Southwest, and Plains through Upper Midwest. The fall preview we’ve been enjoying in the South will ebb away through the week.

Melissa heads for the exit, as the recovery slowly begins in the Caribbean

In brief: Melissa has become post-tropical as it races toward Newfoundland, where it will deliver modest impacts tonight. The toll of devastation in Jamaica is just starting to come into focus. Details on that, and a link to yesterday’s Substack Live with Dr. Kristen Panthagani today.

Before we begin, I just want to offer up a link to a chat I had yesterday with Dr. Kristen Panthagani, of “You Can Know Things.” We talked about science communication, both in weather/climate and in public health and how similar our challenges are. We also talked about best practices in today’s new media environment and how it’s critical to get away from old school ways of doing business. Anyway, it’s an hour, but Kristen also has a wonderfully crafted AI summary of our discussion. AI is good for hurricane models and one hour conversation summaries!

Hurricane Melissa is now officially a post-tropical cyclone, meaning it’s still a very big storm but it just does not have tropical characteristics to call it a hurricane.

Melissa has lost most of its definition and is now considered a post-tropical storm. (Tropical Tidbits)

Anyway, Melissa swung by Bermuda earlier this morning. Wind gusts as high as 98 mph were reported at a somewhat elevated station on the island (meaning winds at ground level probably were not quite that strong).

Melissa will pass just southeast of the Avalon Peninsula in Newfoundland tonight. (Environment Canada)

From here, Melissa will race off to the northeast, passing by Newfoundland tonight after midnight local time. Melissa should only deliver moderate tropical storm force winds to Newfoundland, along with high surf and rough seas. Some locally heavy rain is possible in Newfoundland as Melissa passes by, though modeling suggests roughly 20 to 40 mm for the Avalon Peninsula. A somewhat broader low pressure system over northern New England and Quebec will produce somewhat higher precipitation totals, up to 50 mm or so, especially in the Adirondacks, Green Mountains, and Laurentians.

Total precipitation expected through Saturday night across New England and eastern Canada. (Tropical Tidbits)

Melissa exits stage right tomorrow, eventually settling just south of Iceland where it is absorbed into the semi-permanent Icelandic low.

Melissa’s recovery is just beginning still in the Caribbean. As expected, the death toll has risen, up to about 50 now, including 19 in Jamaica. We continue to get some pictures and accounts of the storm filtering out of Jamaica, and it was as bad as it seemed.

(dentona22 on Twitter/X)

What has been impressive to me are some of the before and after aerial views that show the physical devastation, yes, but also the natural devastation. These were relatively lush, green parts of Jamaica, and the natural landscape has been absolutely shredded, as is consistent with past storms of this intensity we’ve seen in other places. These storms have such immense power.

Here are a number of ways you can directly help out relief efforts, pulled in part from an Associated Press article on the topic.

United Way of Jamaica will donate directly to Jamaicans in the affected areas.

The American Friends of Jamaica is a fund that has been active for decades helping Jamaica.

Give Directly will provide cash relief directly to those impacted by the storm.

I also want to shout out the Center for Disaster Philanthropy which is focused on medium and long-term recovery. When the media and volunteers all leave, there will still be enormous amounts of work to do to recover from a storm of this magnitude. CDP works to help fill that gap.

Another interesting note today: Jamaica is a very forward-thinking country when it comes to disasters, and it will pay off for them in the wake of Melissa. A $150 million cat bond will probably be triggered as a result of the work they did in the years ahead of Melissa. While this will only cover a portion of the losses incurred from the storm, it can allow for a much faster restoration of basic services in the impacts areas in ways that they would otherwise not have been able. The cause of and solution to recovery in disasters remains multi-faceted and complex. But thinking ahead is a good play.

We will be taking the next day or two off and come back Monday to reset the weather situation. Hope everyone has a safe Halloween.

Hurricane Melissa moving toward Bermuda now as recovery begins in Jamaica and the Caribbean; how you can help

In brief: Hurricane Melissa is en route to Bermuda tonight with hurricane conditions expected before it begins to turn extratropical while passing just southeast of Newfoundland on Saturday morning. We have updates below on the damage in Jamaica and how you can help storm victims. Also, join me today at 1P ET/12P CT for a Substack Live with Dr. Kristen Panthagani.

Substack Live today

Before we get into things today, I wanted to share that I’m going to be joining my first Substack live today! Today at 1 PM ET/12 PM CT, I’m excited to talk about weather, climate, and health with Dr. Kristen Panthagani, the author of “You Can Know Things,” as well as a frequent contributor to Your Local Epidemiologist. Both of those are must-read blogs in my opinion. Kristen is passionate about science communication like me, and we both believe that there needs to be a lot of interdisciplinary cross-collaboration in the sciences to learn from one another.

Link to our Substack live is here.

With Hurricane Melissa dominating the news, I am sure we will have no shortage of things to discuss.

Latest on Melissa

Speaking of, Melissa is en route to Bermuda this morning.

Hurricane Melissa is exiting the southeast Bahamas and going to accelerate toward Bermuda today. (Cyclonicwx.com)

Melissa’s durability despite land interactions and moving into 30 to 60 kts. of wind shear is kind of impressive. This should eventually succumb to the shear to some extent. In the meantime, Melissa will likely hold serve today, potentially gaining a smidge more intensity before the shear just becomes overwhelming, cooler waters await, and the storm turns extratropical.

(NOAA/NHC)

As Melissa passes Bermuda tonight, hurricane conditions are likely. With the storm picking up speed, don’t expect the hurricane impacts to last too terribly long there though. Thankfully, a direct hit on Bermuda is unlikely. Melissa will continue northeast, passing the Avalon Peninsula in Newfoundland on Saturday morning as an extratropical hurricane-strength storm. On the current track, forecast impacts would be mostly minor to moderate in southeast Newfoundland and the Avalon Peninsula, with the worst of the storm remaining offshore. If for some reason the storm tracks closer to Atlantic Canada, impacts would worsen in Newfoundland. As of now, this looks like a manageable storm, albeit one with the usual hazards from gusty winds to heavy rain to rough seas and high tides in Newfoundland.

Meanwhile, in Jamaica, we’re starting to get a fuller picture of the damage. These aerial views below are from St. Elizabeth, which is very near where Melissa came ashore. The damage looks equivalent to a massive tornado.

Oddly, some of the structures actually held up remarkably well too. So there is something to be said about how Jamaica handles hurricanes, considering this was as close to the worst possible storm you could have anywhere. That said, this damage is pretty terrible, and the recovery from Melissa is going to be lengthy and difficult. Black River seems to have been hit especially hard. The death toll is around 32 in the Caribbean overall right now. I’m sure that number will rise, sadly. Remember, in the immediate aftermath of a storm like this, you are only seeing a fraction of what actually occurred.

How to help the Caribbean

Here are a number of ways you can directly help out relief efforts, pulled in part from an Associated Press article on the topic.

United Way of Jamaica will donate directly to Jamaicans in the affected areas.

The American Friends of Jamaica is a fund that has been active for decades helping Jamaica.

Give Directly will provide cash relief directly to those impacted by the storm.

I also want to shout out the Center for Disaster Philanthropy which is focused on medium and long-term recovery. When the media and volunteers all leave, there will still be enormous amounts of work to do to recover from a storm of this magnitude. CDP works to help fill that gap.

Newsy Bits

I want to end today on a more positive note. Here are a couple more interesting news stories I’ve bookmarked lately about animals and storms. Hurricanes are tremendously devastating events, but sometimes they can highlight the remarkable abilities and resiliency of nature.

Florida Flamingos: After Hurricane Idalia in 2023, it was discovered that a flock of about 300 to 400 flamingos likely migrating between the Yucatan and Cuba had been blown off course and ended up in Florida. Some decided to stay permanently. The result? Hope that flamingos are going to become more established in Florida again thanks to some luck and a lot of conservation efforts. This also is a great example of how birds can get trapped in the eye of a strong hurricane and be displaced hundreds or thousands of miles. It happens often. (The Conversation)

Fly like the wind: A young whimbrel that had a tracking device was clocked in at a flight speed of 80 mph for 24 hours as it flew from Cape Cod to Venezuela. The reason? It navigated a tailwind around Hurricanes Humberto and Imelda and got a serious boost. Interestingly, a whimbrel last summer got trapped inside the vortex of Hurricane Milton, unable to fly out of it and likely died of exhaustion. It’s a perilous journey south in migration season. (Weather Underground)