In brief: Barry has dissipated. Next, we’ll watch the northeast Gulf or southwest Atlantic for development by this weekend, though there’s only modest support for something formal at this time. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Flossie is likely to become another Pacific hurricane tonight, with heavy rain and tropical storm conditions for parts of the Mexico coast.
Like Tropical Storm Andrea earlier in the month, Tropical Storm Barry held that title for a full 12 hours yesterday. Two names down covering 24 total hours? We could get used to this. Anyway, now we move onto the next development chance.
Gulf or Atlantic? Who’s next?
Over the next several days, we’re going to see repeated rounds of thunderstorms near the Florida Panhandle or just off the First Coast in northeast Florida. By the time we get to Thursday or Friday, a cool front is going to drop into the area and basically stall out, or “wash” out nearby, a typical feature a couple times per summer.
Surface map forecast shows an approaching cool front and weak low pressure approaching Florida from the north. (NOAA WPC)
With these festering thunderstorms and an approaching front, it may be just the shot in the arm this area needs to begin to try to organize. The biggest questions right now revolve around where exactly this happens and what sort of environment it will have to organize in. We know that there will probably be some sort of disturbance that consolidates between the northeast Gulf or southwest Atlantic this weekend.
(Tropical Tidbits)
Steering currents this weekend and early next week look fairly weak, so whatever does form could scoot out into the Atlantic slowly, or drift west southwest through the Gulf. Before anyone panics over this, I think there are a couple things we can say. Systems trying to develop this close to land tend to struggle. Also, there will be a fair bit of dry air around the Gulf Coast early next week that should cause this to struggle a bit as well. Another occasional outcome is that sometimes these disturbances split up some instead of consolidating, and a piece of it would go west and another east.
In terms of model support, reliable modeling tends to be subdued in terms of how this develops, with one or two stronger outliers out of 100 or so ensemble members.
So sitting here on Monday, all we can really do is just watch the evolution of this on modeling. A couple things can be said. There should be a disturbance. There’s not much support for significant development, and there is modest support for sloppy development. One thing there is high confidence in is that the Gulf Coast of Florida is going to get whacked by heavy rainfall.
7-day rainfall totals through next Monday morning. (NOAA WPC)
The current NWS forecast shows upwards of 10 to 15 inches of rain or more possible just along the coast of the Big Bend and in the open Gulf. There will likely be some street flooding issues at times along the west coast and Panhandle coast of Florida. Heavy rain may also extend back west to Mobile and coastal Mississippi. This will be the biggest impact concern through early next week. More to come.
Elsewhere
Tropical Storm Flossie in the Pacific is going to become a hurricane by tonight in all likelihood. It will pass along and off the coast of Mexico, bringing heavy rain to the coast. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are posted there.
(NOAA NHC)
Flossie will significantly weaken as it approaches Baja and enters much colder water. Minimal impacts are expected there, and Flossie’s remnants may get directed out into the open Pacific next week.
Additional development is possible in the Eastern Pacific behind Flossie.
In brief: Tropical Storm Barry is a disorganized mess that will be inland over Mexico later today as a heavy rain producer. Another area to watch has now been formally identified in the NE Gulf or SW Atlantic. Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to become a hurricane in the Pacific. And we have some new information on the loss of critical satellite data today, which is important to include in our understanding of what’s happening.
Tropical Storm Barry
This post from hurricane researcher Andy Hazelton about sums up newly formed Tropical Storm Barry.
Barry is one of those “tropical storm in name only” systems. It’s about as disorganized a storm as we’ve seen lately.
Tropical Storm Barry sits somewhere underneath the thunderstorms off Mexico. (Weathernerds.org)
Based on observations of wind direction and speed from an Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance in the system this morning, Barry got the upgrade. So it’s not like they’re just making this up out of thin air. But I think it’s safe to say than 100 years ago, it would be unlikely that this storm would have gotten a name.
(NOAA NHC)
Whatever the case, Barry will scoot inland tonight. We’ll see if both Andrea and Barry combined can add up to 24 hours of cumulative tropical storm intensity for the season. Heavy rain is expected in Mexico from Barry with flooding possible.
Barry’s main impact will be locally flooding rains and mudslide risk for parts of Mexico, particularly in southern Tamaulipas. (NOAA WPC)
Otherwise, Barry should be fairly efficiently wiped out once over land.
Northeast Gulf of Mexico or Southwest Atlantic
Models continue to hint at an area of disturbed weather emanating from a decaying cold front somewhere between the northeast Gulf and southeast Atlantic later this coming week.
About a 20% chance of development currently exists between the northeast Gulf and southwest Atlantic later this week or weekend. (NOAA NHC)
Models are not exactly eagerly advertising a system here, so 20 percent odds of development seem more than reasonable at the moment. That said, there has been a consistency over several days now that suggests some sort of system could develop in that area over the July 4th weekend. In most cases, ensemble agreement is modest at best, intensity looks modest at best, and there is still more support for nothing formal than something even at this point.
European AI modeling (the AIFS) has been showing at least some signal for a weak low in the vicinity of north Florida for several days now. (Tropical Tidbits)
After last season’s successes, we’ve taken to integrating some of the AI forecast models more into identifying some of these possible risks in the medium-term, and in this case the European AIFS model seems to have modest support for a somewhat disorganized system near northern Florida. Other AI models are similar. The ICON (which also performed well in 2024) is a little more all over the place, but it also shows development risks in that same general area.
Bottom line: Something could develop, but right now the ceiling seems fairly low. We’ll continue to monitor through the week as models should hopefully latch onto expectations more.
Pacific Tropical Storm Flossie
In the Eastern Pacific, the storm we had mentioned as likely yesterday is now Tropical Storm Flossie today.
Tropical Storm Flossie is likely to become a hurricane as it moves up along and off the coast of Mexico, eventually dissipating near Baja. (NOAA NHC)
Flossie should pass far enough off the Mexican coast to avoid most hurricane impacts onshore. That said, a tropical storm watch is posted along a good chunk of the coast. And heavy rain is certainly a concern between Guerrero and Jalisco, where upwards of 10 inches (250 mm) may fall locally.
Flossie will be a big rain producer for the coast of Mexico as it passes offshore. (NOAA WPC)
Behind Flossie there is another system that may develop well offshore of Mexico later this week. Busy busy continues!
Update on SSMIS data
Back on Friday I discussed the news about the DoD satellite data that was about to be abruptly on Monday. That is still happening, but the reality of why it is may be a bit more nuanced than just data being cut off. I just want to be clear that when we live in a questionable information environment, this is what tends to happen (and I even said it on Friday that something gets declared, there’s outrage, and then it’s pulled back). The transparency we’ve gotten from elected officials has been on the decline for years and certainly seems to be at its low right now. So in that “vacuum,” we can only really speculate. And while we all have our own opinions on the current state of affairs, it’s of utmost importance to be clear about what’s going on.
Anyway, a LinkedIN post from Jordan Gerth (you should not need a LinkedIN account to view this), who is a satellite expert that I know personally and have very high esteem for suggests that, while this is certainly a suboptimal decision, it is well within the realm of what was expected at some point. It’s just unfortunate that it’s hitting when it is and with such little advance notice. This is an important perspective to include in this story, and I encourage you to read his brief comments. It surely does not take away from the true fact that the overall weather infrastructure of the country has been degraded in the last 6 months, but with this particular decision, the blame does not fall at the feet of anyone in particular. It still creates a very big problem we need to manage this year and possibly beyond until we can get more instrumentation into space.
In brief: Invest 91L in the Bay of Campeche may develop into a depression, but it probably won’t get much farther than that. Invest 95E in the Pacific is likely to become the next tropical storm or hurricane there tracking up and off the coast of Mexico. Both will bring heavy rain to either coast of Mexico. Plus, we have the latest on the loss of microwave satellite imagery.
Invest 91L
We have our second “invest” of the season. Just to refresh people’s memories, “invests” are just when meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center tag areas of investigation. It’s mostly meant so we can start running some tropical models on a particular area. It doesn’t mean a storm will or won’t develop. It’s just a nice way to classify these things in the pre-storm phase.
Anyway, Invest 91L got tagged late yesterday, and today it’s emerging as expected into the Bay of Campeche.
Invest 91L is dealing with some issues with thunderstorm development today. (Weathernerds.org)
Truthfully, it looked better yesterday, but after traversing the Yucatan, it should not be too surprising to see it struggling a bit. It’s also not as if wind shear is zero here either. There’s a fair bit of it still, which could limit its chances of becoming a depression or named storm. This is a case where the impacts are a lot clearer than the technical definition of the thing.
Indeed, those impacts will include some rough seas in the western Gulf, as well as heavy rainfall. Deep tropical moisture is going to get yanked north and west as 91L moves inland over Mexico tomorrow night and Monday.
Tropical moisture will boost locally heavy rain and flooding chances from Texas into Mexico. (Pivotal Weather)
Rainfall is forecast to add up to 4 to 8 inches (100-200 mm) in parts of Mexico, with lower amounts in Texas over the next 5 days. That said, even up in Texas, there will almost certainly be locally heavier rainfall totals that show up, especially from Matagorda Bay south through Corpus and Brownsville.
Rain totals of 100-200 mm expected over the next 5 days in Mexico. (Pivotal Weather)
So the main concern from Invest 91L will clearly be heavy rain and flooding potential, particularly in Mexico. High pressure should build in later this week behind 91L to dry things out a bit.
Invest 95E a west coast of Mexico concern
Meanwhile, in the Pacific, we have Invest 95E, which will be a rather interesting system for Mexico’s west coast. It should take a track up along the coast but offshore. However, this will likely expose much of the coast from Zihuatanejo north to Baja to tropical impacts as the system develops. And some modeling is actually rather robust with the intensity forecast of 95E.
Google Weather Lab’s screenshot of their various AI model and European ensemble forecast positions of Invest 95E valid on Monday afternoon. (Google)
It should be far enough offshore to keep the worst impacts out at sea, but there are certainly a handful of model solutions that bring this close enough to the coast to produce consequential impacts. You can see from the rainfall map above under the section about Invest 91L that even the west coast of Mexico will see substantial rain over the next 5 days as a result. By the time this does reach Baja and Cabo, it should be weakening under the influence of much colder water. So hurricane impacts are not expected that far north, but locally heavy rain will be a concern. Some of that remnant moisture could get pulled into the Desert Southwest by about next weekend and help enhance monsoon thunderstorms a bit.
Elsewhere
Nothing new to report today elsewhere, including next weekend’s potential in the northeast Gulf or southwest Atlantic, which looks no scarier or likelier today.
Regarding yesterday’s post about the cuts to microwave satellite imagery, which sparked some spirited comments, please keep in mind that nothing about the post was politically motivated or biased. The actual fact of the matter is that we are living in a new reality that did not exist a year ago in the weather community (wide NWS cuts, wide reduction in weather balloon launches, budget requests to eliminate departments that serve the broader weather community, and more), and it’s incumbent on us to make sure people are aware of what is happening based on the facts, which we laid out yesterday.
In brief: A system moving toward the Bay of Campeche has about a 30 percent chance of developing before it moves ashore in Mexico later Sunday or Monday. Another system in the northeast Gulf may emerge by late next week with low odds of developing a little. Plus, we answer questions surrounding the expected loss of a major satellite tool used in hurricane forecasting.
Bay of Campeche
There is a disturbance sitting off the Yucatan as of Friday morning. This is expected to cross the Yucatan and emerge into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. From there it should continue to press west or west northwest into Mexico. Does it have a chance to develop? Certainly; the National Hurricane Center currently assigns about 20 percent odds of it doing so.
An early afternoon satellite image of the disturbance approaching the Yucatan shows little to no organization but plenty of thunderstorm activity. (Weathernerds.org)
However, realistically, this has such a limited time over water with minimal organization that even if something began organizing, it would run into the wall that is mainland Mexico by Sunday or Monday. Thus, any development is both low and with a low ceiling for intensity. That said, this disturbance will bring some heavy rain to Mexico this weekend and early next week.
Five-day rain totals in eastern Mexico tally up to over 100 mm of rain (~4 inches)
But in terms of concern priorities, it’s low.
Northeast Gulf late next week
We continue to see signs in modeling that another disturbance will emerge in the northeastern Gulf by later next week.
The system will pinch off of a dying cold front that stalls out in the northeast Gulf and off the Southeast coast. Look for unsettled weather to setup in the northeast Gulf by late next week, likely bringing some continued heavy rain risk to parts of Florida and the Gulf Coast. But will it develop beyond just periodic thunderstorms? It’s too soon to say, but there is a subset of weather modeling that points to this.
A handful of the 51 European ensemble members show a tropical system of generally low intensity near the northeast Gulf or off the Southeast coast next weekend. (Weathernerds.org)
This is not what I’d call “strong agreement,” but it’s something I suppose. I think the most likely outcome here is that we get a disturbance that festers for a few days off the west coast of Florida or even over Florida itself and then gradually exits out to sea. Development odds seem fairly low overall, and I would presume that overall conditions would be hostile for significant organization.
The heavy rain risk later next week is noteworthy with several inches of rain possible in Florida, especially along the coast between Pensacola and Tampa. This could lead to some eventual flash flooding issues there.
Rainfall forecast for Florida through July 4th morning. (Pivotal Weather)
Meanwhile, let me tell you what I know and what I think this means. I’ll caveat this by saying that this administration has a well-documented habit of making rash decisions, triggering outrage, and then either pulling back the decision or changing it in some way to make it more palatable overall. So what I write here may be outdated literally 5 minutes from now. If they’re trying to build massive frustration, chaos, and increase unpredictability, they’re being quite successful. That said, since this situation seems to start at DoD, I don’t believe we’re going to have a positive resolution.
What is this satellite data?
The Department of Defense has 3 satellites in space that provide a bunch of weather monitoring and space weather data. One of the most important is the Special Sensor Microwave Imager Sounder (SSMIS). The SSMIS data is a key component in hurricane forecasting, as it allows forecasters to observe the features of a tropical system that cannot be adequately viewed on regular weather satellites. Take for example the below image I am borrowing from the University of Wisconsin.
Tropical Storm Michael (2018) comparison using regular weather satellite and the microwave SSMIS data. (University of Wisconsin)
Notice how on traditional weather satellite, Michael looks like a very active storm with numerous thunderstorms. But in the “bluer” image, you can actually see an eye forming underneath the thunderstorms. Michael eventually hit the Florida Panhandle as a category 5 hurricane. This is a nice precursor for a meteorologist to get a view on to help inform forecasting or intensity estimates of a storm. In fact, it’s arguably critical information to have to help predict or identify that a storm is rapidly intensifying. It also helps us peg down the center of a storm when you don’t have aircraft out observing it. We sometimes take hurricane hunters for granted, as they’re not in every single storm. It’s tools like this that have been developed that fill the gap.
What is happening?
The DoD has announced that as of Monday this data will no longer be available to anyone.
But, surely the National Hurricane Center will retain access, right?
As far as I am aware and what is being reported in the media, the NHC does not have an exemption from this order. And this data will no longer be available for anyone outside of DoD. That may or may not be the case, but no one has said anything to this point to assume so one way or another.
What will losing this mean for forecasts?
Right out of the gate, if we have this data missing, you can expect a few things.
First, particularly for storms that are early in their development cycle, you will have a less accurate position of the center of the storm. Why does this matter? Because that’s what gets fed into every single model we use to forecast.
Second, when a storm is rapidly intensifying, we may get a delayed reaction. In other words, it may be 3 or 4 more hours after it begins that we’re able to identify that it has begun. Why does this matter? First off, situational awareness of what’s happening. Delaying that is poor. But of more importance, again, you are feeding models this data. Garbage in, garbage out. If you input a less accurate picture of intensity, you’re more likely to get an inaccurate intensity *and* track forecast. Intensity impacts track.
Third, the ripple effect of all this means less accurate forecasts at scale: Poorer NHC forecasts, poorer model forecasts (including from the European, ICON, Canadian, etc. models), potentially less warning that a storm is coming at a level that requires evacuation decisions. That’s not an exaggeration either.
Can we replace it with other data?
There are other microwave sensors on other satellites outside of DoD that we can use to fill some gaps. However, as Lowry reported in the link above, the DoD sensors comprise half of all microwave sounding data. So basically, while there is still a lot of data available, you are taking one critical data set and slicing it in half. Basically, you’re setting hurricane forecasting backwards.
So why is the DoD doing this?
The official reasoning is security. No specifics have been given. There was no head’s up. They just pushed out the memo above, and here we are today. In Matt’s opinion, it would have been nice for them to include disseminating the data to NOAA still. But perhaps whatever security issue is occurring affects that too. Who knows, but it would be nice to know from a public awareness and safety standpoint why we’re willfully degrading hurricane forecasting.
Bottom line: The government has decided that a key tool utilized by government and private sector meteorologists and researchers to track the intensity and position of tropical systems is going away on Monday with no actual reasoning and no replacement identified. While the public affairs folks will say they still have robust and significant data available to NOAA and the public, the reality is that one of the most important tools in the arsenal will no longer be there every time we need it to be.
