The Atlantic will remain quiet for the foreseeable future.
Though there are no specific risks, if you had to watch somewhere through month’s end, it would be close to home, in the Gulf or off the Southeast as a wetter, cooler weather pattern takes shape.
The Atlantic basin is coated in dust and mostly middling disturbances. (College of DuPage)
The Atlantic is dealing with plentiful Saharan dust and dry air, which tends to inhibit tropical development, in addition to the hostile background state of generally broad sinking air.
If you had to watch for something…
What should we watch for over the next week or two? We have to ask the question, right? The answer is nothing in particular. I always tell people to never just ignore the tropics in summer because stuff can sneak up on you. To that end, I would say it’s probably best to keep at least a side eye on the Gulf or off the Southeast coast in case something homegrown could develop, be it from a cluster of thunderstorms or a tail end of a cool front. That isn’t an uncommon way to spin something up, and in fact the overall weather pattern looks conducive to cooler and wetter weather near the Gulf Coast over the next week or two.
European ensemble mean forecast rainfall as a percentage of normal over the next 15 days shows much of Texas set to receive 200 to 400 percent of normal rainfall, and above normal rain over much of the Southeast. (StormVista Weather Models)
That’s some impressive rainfall across a lot of the South, including north of 300 percent of normal in Texas. To be abundantly clear, above normal rain near the Gulf does not mean anything from a tropics standpoint, but if I were watching one thing in particular over the next couple weeks, that would be it. A very low risk to be sure, but never quite zero.
I’ll stop it here for today. Our next update will be Wednesday. As long as time allows, we’ll also talk a bit about water temperatures and La Niña development, and I also want to go back to Beryl and touch on the obvious fallacy of “it’s only a category one.”
A weak low pressure system off the Southeast coast is unlikely to develop.
It will bring locally heavy rain between South Carolina and South Jersey today and tomorrow.
The rest of the Atlantic is entering slumber for the next couple weeks it seems.
Our next update will come Monday.
Stormy Southeast
Low pressure off the Southeast coast only has about a 10 percent chance of development over the coming days before it scoots ashore. But it will be a decent rain producer from New Jersey into South Carolina, with a slight risk of excessive rain and flooding (level 2 of 4) for these areas today and tomorrow.
A slight risk of excessive rainfall stretches from just north of Myrtle Beach into South Jersey tomorrow. (Pivotal Weather)
This will produce a fair bit of rain, especially in North Carolina, where some flash flood warnings and advisories are already in place this afternoon. Anywhere from 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected from Wilmington, NC north through Virginia Beach over the next few days.
Rain totals of 3 to 5 inches are likely for much of eastern North Carolina into the Virginia Tidewater. (Pivotal Weather)
While flooding risk is elevated, the good news is that development seems unlikely from this. No significant tidal flooding is expected at this time either. Everything should exit after tomorrow, and it will be back to periodic rain chances going forward.
Atlantic enters slumber
The three week tropical weather outlook from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is quite quiet for the Atlantic basin.
Tropical cyclone activity is not especially likely in the Atlantic basin for the remainder of July. (NOAA CPC)
We seem to be entering a period where dust and sinking air dominates much of the basin. Sinking air and dust tends to suppress thunderstorm growth and development. This inhibits tropical systems from forming. Most of the rising air in the background of the atmosphere is over the Pacific right now, hence why development odds seem higher in that basin, both east and west. Does that mean nothing will form? No. It’s entirely possible that something could still develop over the next 2 to 3 weeks, but it would likely be more sudden and close to home than long tracked like Beryl was. For now, let’s just enjoy the fact that quiet is expected, because it would seem to be that August will see the switch flip back to “on” for the Atlantic.
With quiet weather generally expected, we will take Friday off as we continue to have limited power and internet here in Houston. We’ll return with our next update Monday. Enjoy the weekend.
First off, I want to just thank folks that found The Eyewall or used The Eyewall during Beryl. We set all sorts of traffic records for our relatively new site, and we’re hopeful that the information offered was useful. I was hoping to post yesterday, but both Eric and myself have had storm damage to contend with and I finally lost internet yesterday. I am fortunate to be on generator power but as you can imagine it’s a little chaotic still.
I just need to clarify something for readers: We have been mostly “dark” since Sunday, which as I noted in our last post was because our coverage was Houston-specific and our companion site, Space City Weather is intended to focus on that. I just want to make it clear to folks so there is no confusion: If a storm is hitting the Houston area, the bulk of our coverage during the storm will be there. We have an obligation to our local audience there. When time allows, we will cross post to the Eyewall. Eric and I juggle a lot of things with full-time work in addition to this, and perhaps one day we can make this our full-time focus. We’ll see.
Beryl initial reaction
For a category 1 hurricane, Beryl was something to go through. It was informative, as this was personally my first hurricane experience. I’ve been in many storms on the East Coast undergoing transition to tropical storms or extratropical storms and many nor’easters, but I had never been in a bonafide hurricane. It is a unique experience. The rapid intensification started a little later than expected as Beryl approached Texas, which may have spared Houston a category 2 or 3 outcome. Still, there is something to be said about a storm rapidly intensifying at landfall versus a stable or weakening storm at landfall. Beryl fell into the former camp and it showed. We’ll probably touch on that another time because I think that further adds to the nuance of hurricanes and shows the pitfalls of using the Saffir Simpson scale monolithically.
In addition to all the power outages and the damage near Houston, a pretty wild tornado outbreak accompanied Beryl in Louisiana and far northeast Texas as well.
A map of all the tornado warnings issued during Beryl on Monday. East Texas and northwestern Louisiana were hardest hit. (Iowa State University)
Hats off to the folks, especially at the Shreveport NWS office that issued quite literally dozens of warnings to keep people safe. A special thanks to the utility workers in the field right now trying to restore power to the 1.3 million Houstonians without it still.
It’s a lot to digest, and we’re going to give it a little more time and post more thoughtfully than emotionally about literally all the things involved in Beryl, from the forecast and modeling to the impacts to the nuance to Houston-centric questions about preparedness, sustainability, and resiliency.
Beryl’s rain & Southeast shenanigans
Beryl’s remnants are into the Midwest and Northeast today, and there is a moderate risk of excessive rainfall in place for parts of Upstate New York, the Adirondacks, and Vermont. Flash flooding will be possible as that comes north.
Moderate (level 3/4) risk of excessive rain and flooding is in place from the Tug Hill and western Mohawk Valley north into the Adirondacks, Vermont, and portions of New Hampshire. (NOAA WPC)
This includes Utica, Watertown, Burlington, and Montpelier, some areas that have seen serious, devastating rainfall in recent years, so hopefully problems aren’t as serious this time. In addition to excessive rain, there is an enhanced tornado risk today (level 3/5) for similar areas, including much of Central New York. Have a way to receive weather warnings in this area.
A significant tornado risk is in place for much of central New York today, including Ithaca, Syracuse, and Utica in particular. (NOAA SPC)
Meanwhile, the Southeast will be keeping tabs on a weak low pressure system off the coast to close this week. It is not quite together yet, but over the next 2 to 3 days, modeling suggests it organizes a little, tracks along or just off the coast of the Carolinas and eventually out to sea. The good news is that any development should be slow to occur and this will be out of the picture in a couple days. The Hurricane Center has 10 percent odds on it. I might lean a little higher than that, but the ceiling is low on this one. There will be locally heavy rainfall however, and a slight risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall is in place on Friday as this exits.
Heavy rainfall from a slowly organizing low pressure system will drench areas from northeast South Carolina through southern New Jersey late this week. (Pivotal Weather)
Other than this, no areas of development are noted by the National Hurricane Center today.
Looking out farther in time, the background state of the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic looks highly unfavorable for tropical development. Modeling is pretty quiet overall with not even many outlier members showing tropical development over the next 10 to 12 days. I think we will close July on a quiet note, given this, with perhaps maybe a slight uptick of risk in just the last few days of the month or early August. But for those of you with plans over the next week or two, we see no concerns for now.
Beryl slowly gathering strength en route to Matagorda Bay area or just east.
Gusty wind, power outages likely in the Houston Metro.
Heavy rain and flooding will follow Beryl through Houston into northeast Texas and even into the Midwest and Northeast.
Tropical Storm Beryl (70 mph, NNW 12 mph)
Beryl is on the cusp of regaining hurricane status this evening as it lumbers its way north northwest through the western Gulf of Mexico. At this point, it’s mostly a waiting game as the outer bands of the core are almost ashore near Matagorda.
Beryl is slowly regaining intensity as it lifts north northwest toward the middle or upper Texas coast. (RadarScope)
Beryl has thrown many curve balls at us during its life cycle, and the one curve tonight is whether or not its inner core has completely shed the dry air it took in yesterday off Mexico. Satellite imagery suggests it has not shed this dry air, and that may be what has kept Beryl from looking like it’s ready to take off today. The cinnamon bun look to Beryl on radar is another tell-tale sign of this. It’s organizing and strengthening; it’s just slow and steady. It is somewhat fortunate that it took in that dry air yesterday because otherwise, we would almost certainly have a rapidly intensifying hurricane approaching Texas tonight.
With the storm likely to make landfall between midnight and 3 AM, it has roughly 6 to 8 hours to do whatever it is going to do. This certainly caps the upside of intensity a bit, and it feels a little difficult to think a category 2 will happen here. Category 1? Certainly a possibility, even a likelihood. And really, it becomes mostly a technicality at that point. We still expect hurricane-force winds in the Matagorda Bay region, perhaps into Brazoria County and 10 to 20 miles inland from there. Tropical storm force winds will likely overspread much of the Houston metro. I would say widespread power outages remain a good bet, though the hope will be that the damage is cosmetic enough that restoration will take less than 5 to 7 days for most people. That’s somewhat speculative but that’s the hope.
(NWS Houston)
Meanwhile, the rainfall story will be status quo, Heavy rain is expected along and to the right of Beryl’s track into Texas. This will lead to a pretty healthy flash flooding event in the Houston area and beyond. The limit is on how quickly Beryl will move, which should help cap rain totals somewhat. Still, travel will be difficult in Houston and other parts of Texas overnight and Monday morning.
(NWS Houston)
The flash flooding threat will lift quickly into northeast Texas and parts of the Piney Woods tomorrow afternoon. Beryl will assist in bringing heavy rain all the way north into parts of the Midwest, including near Chicago and into Michigan and Indiana. The remnants will be absorbed into a front and system that moves into New England by Wednesday or so as well, so a flooding threat from Beryl may extend far from where it comes ashore tonight.
Storm surge will also be an issue near and east of where Beryl comes ashore.
Water levels at least 1 to 2 feet above Alberto’s levels last month are expected near and east of where Beryl comes ashore. (NOAA NHC)
These levels will probably be a bit higher than what we saw in Alberto in many places near and east of where Beryl comes ashore, especially between Galveston and East Matagorda Bay. There will be some considerable inundation in some spots with the morning high tide cycle Monday.
And continued risk of isolated tornadoes will continue tonight and tomorrow as Beryl lifts north.
Anyway, this is going to be our last regular post on Beryl. We will update The Eyewall again tomorrow afternoon with a recap on Beryl and a quick word or two about what’s next in the tropics.
