Beryl comes ashore in the Yucatan with a fluid forecast and eyes on the Texas coast this weekend

Headlines

  • Beryl will weaken as it moves across the Yucatan today, emerging as a tropical storm tonight in the Gulf.
  • Beryl will steadily re-intensify as it comes west across the Gulf.
  • Forecasts have shifted north since yesterday and a landfall as a hurricane on the Texas coast north of South Padre Island is likely Sunday night or Monday, with risks as far north as Matagorda Bay.
  • Impacts will include wind, surge, heavy rain and flooding, as well as isolated tornadoes, especially near and north of exactly where Beryl makes landfall.
  • Preparations should be in full swing on the Lower & Middle Texas Coasts. Matagorda Bay should keep a close eye on this. Coastal residents in Houston/Galveston should prepare for tidal flooding again.
  • We’ll have another post later today.
(NOAA NHC)

Hurricane Beryl (< 100 mph, WNW 15 mph)

Beryl made landfall this morning on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico just northeast of Tulum. It is now inland over the Yucatan and has lost its primary fuel for intensification, the warm Caribbean. Beryl will steadily weaken over land today and is expected to come off the Yucatan as a tropical storm tonight.

Beryl is maintaining its core while weakening over the Yucatan. (Tropical Tidbits)

Despite weakening to a tropical storm, it is likely that Beryl will not be starting from scratch once in the Gulf. Its core should remain fairly in tact, and it will not take much to allow it to begin to feel the warm Gulf waters again and begin re-intensifying as it comes west northwest.

Beryl’s future track

Beryl is going to be walking an absolute tightrope over the next 2 days. I say that for residents of Texas, because as Beryl turns, exactly where that turn occurs will have an outsized impact on who sees exactly what. For now, I think the key player is this trough over the Plains. Over the last 48 hours, models have tended to further strengthen the trough. That coupled with a slightly farther north track of Beryl has led to Beryl being able to “feel” the tug of this trough more, which is forcing Beryl to come a little more to the north when it gets into the western Gulf of Mexico.

48 hour change map of 500 mb heights (20,000 feet up) shows a stronger Plains trough since Wednesday, which is likely aiding in a farther north track of Beryl as it approaches the Texas coast. (StormVista Weather Models)

So what exactly does this mean for Beryl’s forecast track? When you look at the 51 member European ensemble now, you can see that the majority of the members are turning Beryl northwest or even north northwest into Texas.

Beryl’s forecast landfall appears to be narrowing to a corridor between Matagorda Bay and Port Mansfield, TX north of the Rio Grande Valley. (Weathernerds.org)

The problem is two-fold. First, where exactly does that turn to the north northwest occur? That will determine the landfall point on the Texas coast. Secondly, that landfall point will have tremendous impact on who sees what. A landfall in Matagorda Bay means the southwest suburbs of Houston could experience a full fledged tropical storm type outcome, whereas Corpus Christi would be pretty much fine. A landfall in Baffin Bay south of Corpus would likely deliver hurricane impacts to Corpus Christi and few impacts to Houston beyond thunderstorms and rain. Storms approaching at an angle, rather than more perpendicular to the coast provide a world of problems from communicating impacts. Literally a 15 mile change in the angle of approach can add or remove entire counties from certain expected impacts. My hope is that we’ll get some additional color on this by afternoon, and we will have another update this evening with the information.

How strong will Beryl get?

Beryl’s intensity will be contingent, somewhat, on what it looks like coming off the Yucatan. Assuming some organization still, as well as tropical storm status should allow it to begin to quickly re-intensify. The waters of the Gulf, or the oceanic heat content available to Beryl is not inconsequential, but it’s also not the Caribbean rocket fuel that it had on the other side of the Yucatan.

Ocean heat content in the southwest Gulf is meaningful, but less intense than what Beryl experienced in the Caribbean. (NOAA)

Still, this argues for steady intensification as Beryl comes toward the Gulf. Water temperatures immediately adjacent to the Texas coast are quite warm, so Beryl will not weaken on approach and should make landfall as a strengthening storm. Most modeling keeps Beryl as a tropical storm or a low-end hurricane as it comes ashore. The NHC forecast is slightly more aggressive than this, which is a stance I wholeheartedly agree with. I would plan for a borderline category 2 storm at landfall and hope for the best. The radius of hurricane force winds is currently only 30 miles out from the center, so Beryl is a relatively small storm. Do not focus on the intensity of Beryl other than if you live along the immediate coast, as this will likely deliver tropical storm wind impacts to most. However, widespread tropical storm winds and localized hurricane winds will still cause power outages and damage and should be respected.

In addition, while we don’t currently have a storm surge forecast, it is safe to assume that Beryl will deliver a surge and coastal flooding between Corpus Christi and Cameron Parish, LA. We will have more details on this to come, but expect something similar to Alberto’s impact last month, with pockets of worse conditions near and to the north of where the center comes ashore.

Beryl also a heavy rain and flooding concern

In addition to the hurricane impacts we normally see, Beryl will be a heavy rain producer for Texas. The current rainfall forecast is calling for locally 6 to 8 inches of rainfall, but I fully anticipate that this forecast will be upgraded some before all is said and done. Double digit rainfall totals are likely in a few spots with the most persistent rainfall and localized flash flooding is going to be a concern.

The current NOAA rainfall forecast for Beryl maxes out around 6 to 8 inches in South Texas, but this is likely to increase and shift around some. (NOAA WPC)

Beryl will not stall, so I want to make clear for folks in Texas that this is not a Harvey redux. However, Beryl will move slowly once ashore. Even relatively more progressive and faster models like the GFS dump up to 10 inches in spots. So the heavy rain concern is there. Expect more color on this later today as well.

The bottom line?

For folks in the Rio Grande Valley: If you live in a flood prone area, keep an eye on the rainfall forecast for Beryl. Wind impacts will likely be confined to Brownsville and the coast.

For folks on the Lower and Middle Texas Coast and Coastal Bend region, including Corpus Christi: Prepare as if a hurricane is coming and make sure to follow local officials guidance in terms of evacuation if needed.

For folks in the Matagorda Bay area: Start making preparations in case the forecast shifts to the north and brings hurricane conditions closer to the area.

For folks in the Houston area: Continue to monitor trends today and tomorrow. Make whatever preps you feel comfortable making or you feel are warranted. Current forecasts keep most meaningful impacts beyond localized flash flooding away from us. Coastal residents prepare for at least minor to moderate tidal flooding.

We will have another update late this afternoon.

Beryl racing toward the Yucatan with eyes on northeast Mexico or south Texas by Sunday night

Happy Independence Day to our readers here in the U.S. Hope it is a safe, fun day and/or weekend for you.

Headlines

  • Hurricane Beryl is motoring toward the Yucatan, with landfall expected late tonight or Friday morning near or north of Tulum.
  • Beryl’s forecast toward the western Gulf is coming into slow focus now with a landfall likely well north of Tampico, Mexico and south of Port O’Connor, TX.
  • Hurricane impacts are possible to likely in South Texas Sunday into early Monday.
  • Beryl will transition into a heavy rainmaker once inland with increasing chances of excessive rain in South Texas showing up now.

Hurricane Beryl (115 mph, WNW 18 mph)

Beryl made a very close pass on Jamaica yesterday evening, and is now back out in the Caribbean chugging west northwest toward the Yucatan.

Beryl will continue west or west northwest toward the Yucatan through tomorrow. Beryl’s satellite presentation has been fairly stable the last few hours. (Tropical Tidbits)

Beryl’s near-term track appears to have shifted a smidge to the north versus yesterday or is at least riding the northern half of the guidance envelope. This was probably enough to allow Beryl to ultimately come in on the Yucatan a little farther north than it seemed yesterday. Instead or near or south of Tulum, we’re probably looking at landfall near or north of Tulum. Significant storm surge, heavy rain, and hurricane winds are expected across the Yucatan and perhaps as far south as northern Belize (though the latter will be on the relative weaker side of the storm). Rain totals are expected to be upwards of 10 inches locally.

Rain up to 10 inches (250 mm) or a bit more will be possible in portions of the Yucatan as Beryl sweeps through. (NOAA WPC)

With Beryl being quick moving that should hopefully lessen the rainfall impact from the storm a bit.

What about Texas?

Most of our readership lies in Texas, so let’s talk about Beryl’s end game for a minute. Since yesterday, Beryl maintain some intensity and is tracking on the northern half of the guidance envelope. Obviously that brings portions of south Texas more into play for Beryl’s landfall. The Houston area remains unlikely to see any direct impacts from Beryl. However folks from Corpus Christi southward are very much in play.

Beryl’s tropical model forecast tracks continue to slowly narrow on a landfall point north of about La Pesca, MX and south of Matagorda Bay, TX. (Tropical Tidbits)

Modeling has been bouncing around a bit, but there’s been a significant shift toward a consensus in the last 18 hours or so. This places south Texas firmly in the possible crosshairs of a landfall from Beryl.

Exactly where it makes landfall is too soon to say, but interests from about Port O’Connor south to the Rio Grande will want to monitor the forecast the next couple days. Landfall would probably come around late Sunday night, with impacts beginning early Sunday. There is still a bit of uncertainty in what Beryl will look like when it emerges from the Yucatan, but it will have marginally favorable conditions to reintensify as it tracks toward northeast Mexico or south Texas. The expectation is that a hurricane will come ashore in that region Sunday night. We still need to work on intensity for it, but the current official NHC forecast is for a 75 mph hurricane near landfall. We remind people to not focus on the specific landfall point or intensity, as impacts will spread outward from the center. Even a landfall in Mexico would cause some impacts as far north as Corpus Christi.

Beryl looks increasingly likely to tap hard on the brakes as it turns northwest and comes inland. This means that Beryl is likely to produce several rounds of heavy rain across South Texas. Uncertainty on where Beryl meanders inland after landfall is very high. Beryl could stall out in South Texas or in the Rio Grande Valley. Or Beryl could just slowly drift north toward Hill Country. The current rainfall forecast for the region shows manageable rain, but some operational model guidance is beginning to get a little more unruly with rain totals above 10 inches in spots.

Rain totals are likely to grow from here once the exact track of Beryl comes into focus and some isolated areas will likely get 8 to 10 inches of rain or more. It is too early to attempt to pinpoint where. (Pivotal Weather)

This is becoming an increasing concern with Beryl. A lot of areas in South Texas, the Rio Grande Valley, or Hill Country need rain pretty badly. However, while a slowing or stalling tropical storm can provide that, it can also provide problems. Folks in South Texas will want to continue to monitor changes to the rainfall forecast closely in the days ahead. The current expectation is that areas from Houston into Louisiana will see an uptick in daily thunderstorms next week but generally manageable rainfall. We will continue to watch this closely.

Beyond Beryl

Beryl was a good role model for Invest 96L. Much like its bigger sibling, 96L also refuses to give up, though it remains extremely disorganized in the Caribbean. It will follow Beryl west and northwest and may inject a dose of additional moisture into the rains over Texas or Mexico next week, but it seems unlikely to develop much on its own. Beyond that, it’s quiet and hopefully stays that way for a week or two.

Jamaica takes a hit today from what has been a resilient Beryl, as its future track begins to come into focus (UPDATED)

(5:10 PM CT Update): Beryl continues to defy some logic and fight back hard against wind shear. Satellite presentation has improved a good bit over the last couple hours, and it’s tracking very close to the coast of Jamaica.

Beryl on satellite is coming dangerously close to a landfall on Jamaica. (Weathernerds.org)

Land interaction and continued wind shear should allow Beryl to weaken a bit more as it passes off to the west tonight. In general though, while Beryl’s central pressure has been gradually increasing, its winds seem to want to keep going. Model guidance did a couple things today with respect to Beryl going forward. There are no meaningful changes to track or impacts for the Yucatan, with a landfall near Tulum expected on Friday. Beyond the Yucatan, the models again adjusted back south (after a flirtation back north after our post this morning). Most European ensemble members and most tropical models favor a track south of South Padre Island, TX.

Model consensus shows a trend with older runs (lighter colors) farther north and newer runs (darker colors) farther south. (Brian Tang/SUNY Albany)

At this point, I would say that folks from Corpus Christi southward should continue to watch Beryl closely. North of there, we don’t currently expect any significant impacts at this time. Beryl is expected to weaken to a tropical storm over the Yucatan before restrengthening, albeit slowly, into a hurricane in the Bay of Campeche or southwest Gulf. More on this and the rainfall expected from Beryl for Texas as a whole tomorrow morning.

Headlines

  • Beryl will make a close pass to Jamaica later today as a major hurricane with surge, wind, and heavy rainfall.
  • Beryl is beginning to feel the effects of wind shear and slow, steady weakening is forecast as it comes west.
  • It is still likely to be a hurricane as it approaches the Yucatan on Friday, likely coming ashore south of Cancun and Cozumel.
  • Beryl should continue toward the northern Mexico or far south Texas coast as a tropical storm or lower-end hurricane this weekend.
  • Heavy rainfall is likely in Mexico and far South Texas as Beryl comes ashore and begins to slow down.

Hurricane Beryl (145 mph, WNW 20 mph)

Hurricane Beryl’s forecast as of Wednesday morning. (Tomer Burg)

Hurricane Beryl was a resilient storm through much of yesterday, as its core managed to resist some of the shear Beryl began experiencing. Alas, Beryl’s satellite presentation has degraded markedly this morning, with even the eye becoming filled with clouds.

Beryl appears to finally be feeling the wind shear that was expected to impact the storm as it moved into the western Caribbean. (Tropical Tidbits)

That said, its on a beeline for Jamaica as a major hurricane and conditions should begin to deteriorate through the day today. Significant surge and wind, in addition to heavy rainfall should arrive in Jamaica today and continue into tonight. Despite the satellite presentation degrading, that is still a nasty core of the hurricane heading to Jamaica. For the Cayman Islands, surge and wind, in addition to heavy rain arrive late tonight or tomorrow.

Total rainfall will be near or over a foot (300 mm) in eastern Jamaica, with widespread totals of 8 to 10 inches (200 to 250 mm) from the Caymans into Cozumel and the northeast Yucatan. (NOAA WPC)

As Beryl comes west, it is expected to maintain hurricane intensity as it approaches the Yucatan this weekend. The current forecast likely keeps the center of the storm south of Cancun and Cozumel, with a landfall likely near or south of Tulum. In recent days, the debate within modeling has been surrounding its intensity. A stronger storm was more likely to lift northwest toward the Houston area or Louisiana, while a weaker storm would stay farther south into Mexico or extreme south Texas. We seem to be approaching a mild consensus right now on that track. There are still a very, very small number of outliers bringing Beryl north of Matagorda Bay late this weekend. However, the vast majority of ensemble members and tropical models are now in decent agreement in bringing Beryl more on the southern half of the forecast envelope.

Track forecast consensus has started to increase a bit for late this weekend. As long as Beryl behaves as expected, there is moderate agreement that it will track between South Padre Island and Tampico, MX when it encounters the Gulf Coast. (Tomer Burg)

For information specific to Houston, check out the latest at Space City Weather. But it would appear that this comes in well south of the Houston area. It will be important to check back again later today or tomorrow morning just to ensure that remains the case.

The Yucatan will do a number on Beryl, but there may be a brief window for Beryl to regain strong tropical storm or hurricane status as it comes across the Bay of Campeche before coming ashore.

One interesting wrinkle with Beryl, regardless of its intensity as it comes ashore in the western Gulf will be how fast it slams on the brakes. Beryl has been plowing west all week around 20 mph give or take. When it gets to the Gulf Coast, the strong high pressure that had been steering Beryl will begin to weaken some but not dissipate completely. Meanwhile, the West will be enduring a long-duration heat wave with strong high pressure over California.

The upper pattern is slowly coming into focus Sunday with Beryl growing increasingly unlikely to be “captured” by troughing over the Upper Midwest or northern Plains. Beryl could slow to a crawl over northern Mexico or far south Texas. (Tropical Tidbits)

That could lead to steering currents weakening and forcing Beryl to slow down substantially or even stall out for a short time over Mexico or far South Texas. When the “s” word gets thrown around, I know some folks in Texas can panic, but I want to be clear. This isn’t a Harvey-redux. Even models that do show a stall keep rain totals far under that. That being said, this is a unique storm on its own and while rain would be extremely welcome in the Rio Grande and northern Mexico, too much rain can always cause issues. So we’ll watch trends in the coming days closely.

The current 7-day rainfall forecast through next Wednesday morning shows the potential for 5 inches of rain in far South Texas or northern Mexico. Higher amounts are likely in spots. (NOAA WPC)

Rain should transition to scattered thunderstorms into next week over Texas and Mexico.

Invest 96L

Beryl’s much less talented sibling is Invest 96L, which continues to follow in Beryl’s footsteps. It has plenty of thunderstorms with it, but it is being blasted by what is basically the “exhaust” from Beryl, which is keeping it completely disorganized.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are moving into the Windward Islands from 96L, likely hampering recovery efforts in Grenada. Invest 96L is extremely disorganized, and development is expected to be slow if it happens at all. (Tropical Tidbits)

While this will unfortunately deliver heavy rain to some of the storm ravaged Windward Islands today, it is unlikely to develop much beyond this over the next two to three days. Most modeling keeps it this way until the bitter end. The usual troublemakers (the GFS and Canadian models) try to make something of it, but I think that’s a very low likelihood scenario. That said, if the thunderstorm activity can be maintained as it tracks into Mexico, it could add a shot in the arm to any rainfall ongoing in that region or far South Texas next week, a scenario that’s plausible. We’ll keep an eye on things.

Beyond 96L, the tropics are expected to shut down for a little bit. Here’s hoping that’s the case.

Jamaica next in line as category 5 Hurricane Beryl plows across the Caribbean (UPDATED)

(5:30 PM CT update): Beryl is beginning to feel the shear as laid out in our post below, and it is now a category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. For folks in Jamaica, this offers modest comfort, as a major hurricane is going to make landfall (or come close) there tomorrow. Little has changed with respect to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, so reference the post below on that.

(NOAA/NHC)

I need to say some words to people in Houston. We are getting blasted by a few of you for apparently underselling the real threat from Beryl. If you read the post below, we’ve taken a very down the middle, neutral stance on the storm, explaining how it is still likely to pass to the south, though if it were to not weaken as much as forecast over the next 36 hours, it could come a bit farther to the north. We even went so far as to show the European ensemble models with the distribution of some closer to southeast Texas and others in Mexico, and we explained how this could be and what to watch for. I’m not quite sure what isn’t resonating with some people, but those are the facts. Here is a look at today’s most recent European ensemble members, 51 of them:

The spread of European ensemble members forecasting Beryl’s track continues to cast a wide net from Mexico to Texas. (Weathernerds.org)

Of the 51 members, 5 of them or 9.8 percent bring Beryl into the Houston area or Louisiana. This is down from 8 earlier this morning. If you would rather the GFS Ensemble, 4 of the ensemble members, or about 13 percent bring it to Texas or Louisiana, the same as earlier. Roughly one tropical model (the HWRF) brings Beryl to Houston. The HWRF historically would handle a weakening tropical system poorly, so I would be apt to discount it in my weighting as a meteorologist with a number of years of experience tracking and forecasting these things.

I write all this to say: No one is saying to ignore Beryl. But, look, those statistics of objective model data imply that the risk to Houston remains…pretty low! Should we continue to watch this? Absolutely! And I laid out the case of how this could become more problematic in Texas below. So, let’s just take a breath and watch what happens over the next 24 to 36 hours.

Headlines

  • Beryl remains a category 5 hurricane with 160 mph maximum sustained winds.
  • Beryl is expected to make a direct hit on Jamaica tomorrow as a major hurricane.
  • While Beryl is likely to weaken over the next 48 hours, it may not occur fast enough to drop under major hurricane intensity through Jamaica and possibly the Cayman Islands.
  • Heavy rainfall and flooding are likely along and north of Beryl’s path in the Caribbean.
  • Beryl’s forecast track remains dependent on a number of features as it comes west, but it has trended a little farther north today versus yesterday.

Hurricane Beryl (160 mph, WNW 22 mph)

Hurricane Beryl somehow managed to continue strengthening last night and achieved category 5 status late in the evening over the eastern Caribbean. It has maintained that status today and has 160 mph maximum sustained winds as it races west northwest across the Caribbean.

The forecast from the National Hurricane Center as of 11 AM AST shows Beryl closing in on Jamaica as a major hurricane tomorrow. (NOAA NHC)

Over the next 36 hours, Beryl will remain on a course that should bring it very, very close to a direct hit on Jamaica. At the least, it will be a close pass, and hurricane conditions are expected there beginning late tonight or tomorrow morning. Preparations for a major hurricane impact should be rushed to completion in Jamaica. Folks in the Cayman Islands will need to watch Beryl closely as well as it passes near or just south of there tomorrow night.

On satellite, Beryl looked great this morning, and while it still looks great, there are at least some signs that shear is beginning to impact Beryl a bit on the west side.

Hurricane Beryl looks the part on satellite this morning as it races west northwest. Some signs of wind shear are evident on the western side of Beryl, which should hopefully indicate Beryl has peaked. (Weathernerds.org)

You can see a more ragged appearance to the eye and eyewall, and even what looks to be a little dry air just outside the core in the western semicircle of Beryl. Whatever the case, the thought is that Beryl’s intensity has peaked, and it should now begin to undergo a steady decline. Beryl is about to plow into 20 or more knots of wind shear.

Beryl is about to encounter 20 kts or more of wind shear as it approaches Jamaica. (University of Wisconsin CIMSS)

Wind shear is complicated with storms of this intensity. Theoretically, it should just start to feel the shear and begin a steady, if not rapid weakening. Modeling says this will be the case. The majority of modeling weakens Beryl to a category 2 or weaker storm by Thursday morning. But in storms of this intensity, shear can be a little funky and find ways to help the storm “ventilate” somewhat. In my opinion, this is not going to be the case with Beryl; it should weaken as forecast, perhaps at a slower rate than what models suggest. However, there is inherent uncertainty here, and that’s why we would tell folks in Jamaica to prepare for a serious, major hurricane.

In addition to the wind and surge impacts of a major hurricane, flooding from rainfall is a possibility, if not likelihood as Beryl passes southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.

Beryl is expected to drop as much as 200 to 300 mm (8-12 inches) of rainfall along and just north of its track. (NOAA WPC)

According to Sam Lillo of DTN weather, who has been posting frequent statistical nuggets on Twitter/X regarding Beryl’s unprecedented nature about Beryl’s forward speed. Over a 6 hour period, Beryl is the fastest known moving category 5 storm on record. As noted by him and some others, Hurricane Allen in 1980 and Janet in 1955 also had some extreme forward speeds for category 5 storms. Either way, Beryl will end up atop or near the top of many charts once all is said and done for earliest and easternmost and fastest for storms of this intensity.

What comes after Jamaica for Beryl?

The main near term concern is for the folks in Jamaica and the Caymans. Beyond that, the forecast is contingent on a number of factors. Over the last 48 hours, we’ve seen a slight northward shift in Beryl’s forecast track as it comes west.

Beryl’s forecast track via the ensemble mean of all models has trended a bit to the north in the last couple days, not by a ton but by enough to be notable. (Tomer Burg)

This has implications for the Yucatan and perhaps the Gulf as well. Why is Beryl trending more north? For one, exploding into a category 5 storm allows it to gain some added latitude. But secondly, the U.S. pattern has changed somewhat. If you look at how the European ensemble’s 6 to 10 day forecast has changed in the last 48 hours, the tendency has been for the trough over the Central U.S. to strengthen, thus weakening the ridge of high pressure in the South.

Over the last 2 days, the European ensemble model has weakened the southern ridge and strengthened the Central trough, which has allowed Beryl’s risk of coming farther north to increase. (StormVista)

But there’s a lot of nuance to this. For one, if Beryl does weaken as expected, this would have only a modest impact on the final track, keeping it south across the Yucatan and into Mexico. If Beryl does stay stronger than forecast or somehow intensifies as it comes west into the Gulf, it would be more apt to “feel” the stronger trough and come north. You can see this on the Euro ensemble where stronger outcomes are mostly skewed north and weaker outcomes are mostly skewed south.

There is a bit of a bimodal dispersion of Euro outcomes, with stronger ones mostly northward and weaker ones mostly southward. (Weathernerds.org)

There’s a reason we have been apt to not speculate on what would happen to Beryl as it came west, rather trying to focus on what would impact Beryl. These changes offer a wrinkle. Should you worry on the Texas or Louisiana coasts? No, but you’ll want to keep an eye on this. For one, there seems to be a fair bit of support for somewhat hostile upper air conditions in the Gulf when Beryl arrives, so there’s no guarantee this will just explode when it gets there.

That said, we’re operating in a very odd world right now. Gulf of Mexico water temps have drifted under record levels thankfully, but it’s still warmer than normal overall. So I don’t want to overpromise anything at this point. The best we can tell people to do is continue watching. If Beryl makes it to the northern Mexico, Texas, or Louisiana coasts, the impacts would probably begin late Saturday night or Sunday.

One other quick word: A lot of people will be traveling this weekend to beaches and such. Rip current risk in the Gulf is going to increase later in the weekend as some of the swells from Beryl reach the coast.

Rip currents will become an issue on most of the Gulf Coast by later in the holiday weekend. (NWS Mobile/Pensacola)

Please use caution if you’ll be on the beach this weekend. Even the best and most experienced swimmers can struggle with rip currents, so it’s advised to swim near a lifeguard and follow any warnings or caution notices.