As the likely active 2024 hurricane season kicks off, we look at ways the forecast outcomes could be less bad

Today marks the first day of what is expected to be a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean. You’ve seen the forecasts. You’ve heard probably more than you care to hear about it. Today, I just want to ground everyone a bit.

Headlines

  • Hurricane season is officially underway, with a very active season expected
  • La Niña is still expected to develop, and water temperatures in the Atlantic are historically warm
  • There are ways this season can be not as bad, including the 2010 path, a slower La Niña, or some other known unknown

Realities of 2024

Look, the reality is that the data is the data. We are likely heading into a La Niña, which has historically led to busier than normal Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Strong ensemble model agreement from the C3S multi-system ensemble which takes multiple government agency forecasts and plots them together. (The Copernicus Programme)

That’s about as strong agreement as you could ask for to have confidence that a La Niña was going to develop by mid or late summer.

The Atlantic Ocean is absolutely raging warm right now. The most important initial ingredient for tropical systems to develop is warm water, and we have plenty of it out there.

(Note: If you want a good, readable explainer on how tropical systems form, I highly recommend this from Dr. Kim Wood at the University of Arizona)

Sea-surface temperature anomalies show that water temperatures are above normal virtually everywhere in the Atlantic basin. Some places are even warmer than their average peak values already. (Kim Wood/University of Arizona)

At this point, the entire Atlantic is warmer than normal where it matters, and some places are already even above their peak climatological values, normally reached in August or September. So, yeah, people aren’t hyping this, the Atlantic really is that warm. We are in somewhat uncharted territory here.

These are two very key reasons that explain why seasonal forecasts are what they are.

Reasons to not curl up in a ball in the corner of a room just yet

I just got done explaining why this season was likely to be extremely active. Despite realities being what they are, there are ways that the forecasts may not come to fruition, or perhaps come to fruition in a less impactful way.

The 2010 pathway

While it was not a top 10 year, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was still one of the busiest ones on record, qualifying as extremely active. As busy as it was, the impacts from the storms that season were far less than they could have been, given the activity.

A map of the storms from the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season (NOAA NHC)

Hurricane Igor was a very bad storm in Newfoundland, one of their worst in years prior. Early season Hurricane Alex was particularly bad in Mexico, as was Hurricane Karl. Hurricane Tomas was also terrible in the Caribbean, especially in Haiti, which was still reeling from their major January 2010 earthquake. Tomas and Igor were retired.

So why am I saying the 2010 scenario is positive? It’s hard to have a busy hurricane season without some degree of devastation somewhere. That’s the reality. However, given that there were 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes in 2010, that the destruction was not even worse is somewhat incredible. The hope would be that a 2010-type outcome limits the amount of loss of life and property we could otherwise see this year.

What if La Niña doesn’t quite come to fruition?

We are likely heading for a La Niña this year. The NOAA forecast from early May showed about a 50/50 chance La Niña develops by mid-summer and about a 70 percent chance it develops by late summer or early fall, at the peak of hurricane season historically. Bear in mind, however, that a 70 percent chance of something happening also means that there is a 30 percent chance that it does not happen. Let’s say La Niña is slow to get off the ground over the next couple months and it finally gets going in October or November? Let’s say we get into a firm ENSO neutral or “La Nada” situation heading into fall? These are not high probabilities, but they’re not inconsequential probabilities either. Will it prevent this hurricane season from being active? Probably not. But could it trim a little off the top, so to speak? Sure. It’s not an impossibility by any means.

Known unknowns

Seasonal forecasting is hard though not impossible. And hurricane forecasts have been rather spectacular in recent years. NOAA and Colorado State do good work. But there are frequently “known unknowns” that will show themselves. What if there’s persistent wind shear somewhere this year? What if there’s a lack of mid-level moisture to help storms thrive? What if like last year, most entry points to the western Caribbean and Gulf are closed off due to high pressure? There are a million “what if” questions we could ask. That could help mitigate the damage potential from storms this year.

Final words

As we begin the long slog that is hurricane season, we know that it is likely to be active. That much is certain. But there are ways it’s active and not as bad as it could be. And there are ways it may not even be as active as we fear. That’s the reality of long-range forecasting.

That said, hope is not a strategy, and if you are in a hurricane-prone location, you should prepare (as you should every year) for the season ahead. Not everyone has the luxury of being able to make elaborate hurricane season preparations, so look out for each other and continue to keep tabs on things. We will have more to come through the season!

Quiet week expected as the Gulf of Mexico sees rapid warming this May

Headlines

  • No tropical activity expected this week
  • A disturbance may form in the southern Caribbean next week, but it will likely head due north or northeast out to sea quickly.
  • Water temperatures are rapidly warming in the Gulf of Mexico.

Quiet for the next week or so

The good news is that as hurricane season officially kicks off this week, we have nothing of note out there to discuss. The only thing catching my eye right now is the potential for a disturbance in the southern Caribbean sometime next week that may lift northward or off to the northeast into the Atlantic, quickly lifting out to sea. For now, that seems like an inconsequential item, so we’ll end our discussion there.

The Eastern Pacific seems relatively muted for the next several days as well. So, we’ll close the month of May on a positive note.

Our next big seasonal forecast update will come on June 11th from the researchers at Colorado State. I doubt anything will significantly change.

Gulf of Mexico rapidly warming

About three or four weeks ago, Gulf of Mexico water temperatures were running just a smidge above average. Even compared to a year prior, they were actually not too bad. As is often the case in May, things can change quickly in the Gulf, and indeed they have. We started May with water temps running about a week or less ahead of schedule. We have accelerated that pace and are now running two to three weeks ahead of normal, per analysis from the University of Arizona.

Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have stepped on the accelerator this month and are now sitting at record levels for late May. (Kim Wood/University of Arizona)

Not only have they accelerated this month, those water temperatures are currently at record levels for the time of year. You can see from the map inset above that the western Gulf and Florida coast is running about 2 to 3°C above normal, while the central Gulf is running about 0.5 to 1°C above normal. Gulf water temps can fluctuate rapidly, and even over the last week or so, we’ve seen temps in the western Gulf slow down their rise or even backpedal a bit, while the central Gulf sees some faster warming. While this is probably best described as concerning, it’s also somewhat typical Gulf behavior — just occurring at record levels of warmth. Wherein lies the problem for the 2024 hurricane season.

Another reminder to prepare for hurricane season, as you should every year.

Hurricane season continues to look like it will be an arduous slog

Headlines

  • NOAA has unveiled their prediction for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and to no one’s surprise, it’s active.
  • They predict an 85 percent chance of an above normal season with 17 to 25 named storms and 8 to 13 hurricanes.
  • There’s a Caribbean disturbance that is headed out to sea, unlikely to develop, and we may have another one there in about 10 days or so.

First off, apologies for the gap between posts, though it’s not as if anything has been going on in the tropics of late. The derecho event here in Houston has monopolized most of my time and resources, and while we were thankfully ok at my location, many others in Houston are not. Here’s to yet another recovery for this city. So on that happy note, let’s discuss hurricane season again.

NOAA’s seasonal hurricane forecast is big

NOAA has unveiled their seasonal hurricane outlook today, and it’s a doozy (Editor’s note: I used the same intro for the Colorado State hurricane outlook last month). First, the numbers.

  • An 85 percent chance of an above normal season
  • 17 to 25 named storms
  • 8 to 13 hurricanes
  • 4 to 7 major hurricanes
  • Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) 150 to 245% of the median

In other words, busy.

There are a number of factors involved in this: We are transitioning into a La Niña event in the Pacific, we are in a background state of above normal tropical activity that likely began in 1995, and sea surface temperatures in much of the tropical Atlantic are at record levels and are running near late August averages. That isn’t a typo. Dr. Kim Wood at the University of Arizona and Michael Lowry in South Florida have been two of many prominent voices sounding the alarm on this for months now.

Sea-surface temperatures in the main development region of the tropical Atlantic are sitting at record levels and are more typical of a later August 1991-2020 average. (Kim Wood, U of Arizona)

Wood has sea-surface temperature maps for various sub-basins of the Atlantic, and while the Gulf of Mexico is only running about 2 to 3 weeks ahead of schedule, the basin overall is running near August levels. The Caribbean? That’s even worse, running *above* peak average sea-surface temperatures for the entire year. Already.

We can hope for a 2010-like outcome, where it was a busy season but most storms avoided land (with a couple notably tragic exceptions). But given these sorts of antecedent conditions coming into the season, this would be a favorable outcome.

The NOAA outlook, combined with virtually every other hurricane season outlook is saying this year will be busy. It may or may not be busy for you, but we are getting to the point where there aren’t a whole lot of ways to describe any of this that in non-hyperbole. The bottom line is that this is the year to be prepared if you live anywhere on the coast. Just in case.

Watching the Caribbean, sort of

And with that, we have a disturbance to keep tabs on in the Caribbean already.

Thankfully, this disturbance only has about a 10 percent chance of developing and is expected to head out to sea anyway. (NOAA)

Looking at satellite, there’s not a whole heck of a lot to this one. There’s definitely a “center” of the disturbance near the eastern tip of Cuba, but it’s on the way east and northeast. So it will be out in the open water before too long.

A tropical disturbance near the eastern tip of Cuba will head out to sea with about a 10 percent chance to develop into a formal tropical system. (Tropical Tidbits)

Ten percent seems like reasonable odds for development at this point, but no impacts of note are expected even if it does form.

Otherwise, things look quiet for another week or so. We may have another disturbance to watch in the Caribbean in about 10 days or so. We’ll keep you posted on that.

Hurricane season kicks off in the Eastern Pacific, as the Atlantic basin looks calm for the foreseeable future

Headlines

  • No high confidence signals for tropical development in the Atlantic over the next 2 weeks.
  • It seems likely that we’ll make it to June 1st without an Atlantic storm.
  • Eastern Pacific may get its first system by next week, but it likely heads out to sea.

A May Atlantic basin storm seems unlikely this year

Over the next seven days, it looks like a relatively quiet stretch in the tropical Atlantic. The area where GFS modeling has been hinting at some kind of potential development, the Caribbean, looks drier than normal through next week.

The next 7 days look rather quiet in the Caribbean and Gulf. Above normal rainfall mainly targets the Gulf Coast and Southeast, while below average precipitation dominates the Caribbean. (Tropical Tidbits)

Any kind of development should be held off through the 25th or so. Heading into weeks 2 and perhaps week 3, it continues to look unlikely that we see development in the Atlantic. The Climate Prediction Center’s global tropical hazards outlook shows above average rainfall developing in the Caribbean and western Atlantic in that timeframe, but as of now, there’s nothing to really latch onto as a development candidate.

The Climate Prediction Center’s tropical hazards outlook shows dryness in the Gulf, but gradually increasing moisture in the eastern Caribbean and western Atlantic. Development is unlikely at this time in the Atlantic. (NOAA)

At this point, I feel relatively comfortable saying that unless something drastically changes soon, we’ll make it to the June 1st start of hurricane season with no preseason storms in the Atlantic.

Hurricane season underway in the Eastern Pacific

Today is the first day of hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific, and the National Hurricane Center has a 30 percent area outlined off the coast of Mexico.

The first system of the season in the Pacific may develop by next week, but it will likely head out to sea. (NHC)

Slow development of this area is possible as it moves west. A building ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere, reloading extreme, historic heat over Mexico will keep this one likely moving west out over the Eastern Pacific. If it were to develop, Aletta is the first name on the list this year.