Sierra snow slowly winding down, while rain ramps up in the South this week

Good Monday morning! It’s still snowing in the Sierra. Let’s start your week off right with a look at what’s happening weather-wise.

Headlines

  • Periods of snow continue in the Sierra, with recovery proceeding slowly. Blizzard warnings are discontinued and replaced with winter storm warnings, with more manageable snow expected this week.
  • Heavy rain will fall on the Southeast via two systems, one tomorrow and another around Friday.
  • Severe weather risks are outlined in the South for Thursday and Friday in particular.
  • A more localized risk of excessive rain and flooding exists in New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana today and tomorrow.

Sierra slammed

The snow continues in the Sierra today, though the blizzard warnings of the weekend have been dropped. Now, winter storm warnings are in effect into Wednesday morning. Moderate winter storm impacts are expected to continue today and tomorrow in the northern Sierra in particular.

Expected additional snow over the next couple days is most notable north of Lake Tahoe, with another foot or two possible at high elevations north of I-80. (NWS Sacramento)

In terms of what has fallen. According to their websites at about 4 AM PT this morning, Heavenly has seen nearly 70 inches, Homewood has close to 90 inches at the summit, and Northstar is at 70 inches. Most snow reports have not been updated since yesterday morning. I would expect to see another batch released later today.

We will also get another update on the Sierra snowpack today or tomorrow, which should show the central and northern Sierra at or above average I would assume. The southern Sierra did fairly well too, but they were also running a bigger deficit, so we’ll see if they can jump past normal.

Liquid totals easily surpassing 4 to 6 inches in the mountains will help the snowpack, while the lower elevations in Northern California got beneficial rainfall as well. (Pivotal Weather)

Videos have been circulating on social media showing a bunch of vehicles stuck in the Sierra. I-80 is still closed between Colfax, CA and the Nevada state line this morning. Snow “sluffs” (or loose snow on the top of the snowpack that produces a less intense avalanche) also occurred on US-50 yesterday, closing the road. If you’re like me, you’ve also been watching SoCal, in particular Big Bear Lake and the eagle cam. It’s been a rough few days for them, especially with the wind. There have been But apparently, eagle chicks are expected any day now, hopefully in better weather conditions.

Southeast soaking and late week severe weather risks

Rain is en route to the Southeast this week, with one round tomorrow into Wednesday and another one coming Friday into Saturday. There will be a healthy amount of rainfall piling up, with totals in excess of 5 inches possible by the weekend for parts of Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.

Birmingham through Atlanta, and Upstate South Carolina will see the bulk of the rain tomorrow and late this week. (Pivotal Weather)

Additionally, southeast Louisiana is in a little bit of a higher risk for heavy rainfall today and tomorrow. A slight risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall is posted with localized totals in excess of 6 inches possible in that area.

Southeast Louisiana is in a slight risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall today and tomorrow. (NWS New Orleans)

Will these storms come with any severe weather? As of right now, there are some marginal risks outlined by the Storm Prediction Center through Wednesday, but nothing beyond that. However, days 4 and 5 (Thursday and Friday) are now highlighted with 15 percent severe risks, the equivalent of at least a slight risk (level 2 of 5). More importantly, the Storm Prediction Center typically refrains from handing out risks on days 4 through 7 unless they’re convicted. In this particular case, model agreement is pretty solid on potential severe weather from East Texas into the Deep South on Thursday into Friday.

Multiple days of severe weather are possible to close the week out in the South. (NOAA SPC)

The severe threat may expand into Georgia or the Carolinas on Saturday, but as the SPC notes in their discussion this morning, there is a fair bit of model disagreement on enough details to keep a formal risk out of their forecast. We’ll see how this evolves through the week.

Mountain snow in the West and watching another potential fire weather day in the Texas Panhandle Sunday

Today’s headlines

  • Snow continues to pile up in the Sierra, while heavy snows will expand into the interior West as well through the weekend.
  • Numerous record highs possible this weekend in the Plains and Midwest.
  • Strong winds and drier air will produce critical fire weather days in the Texas and/or Oklahoma Panhandles Saturday and Sunday.

Western snow will pile up

The multi-day snowstorm in the Sierra is underway with blizzard warnings and travel advisories hoisted in much of that area.

Magnifeye.com has a good display of various CalTrans webcams along I-80 (and elsewhere), and you can see road conditions are snowy. (Magnifeye.com)

Additional snow will be measured in feet as the storm continues today and tomorrow. Conditions should begin to improve in the Sierra on Sunday with less intense and sustained snow. Snow showers and snow levels down to perhaps as low as 1,000 feet will continue Sunday and possibly Monday as well.

Additional snowfall through Monday morning will continue to blast the Sierra and Lake Tahoe. (NWS Reno)

The combination of wind and mountain snow across the West will continue to be an issue into the weekend. The NWS winter storm severity index maxes out at extreme levels in Wyoming and major levels in parts of the Wasatch in Utah.

Over the next 3 days, you can see the extreme impacts expected in California. But localized extreme winter storm impacts will occur in Wyoming with widespread major impacts, along with some major impacts expected in Utah’s Wasatch. (Pivotal Weather)

Overall, just a really impactful and beneficial storm for Western U.S. snowpack and water concerns; a little rough in the near term but good news over the longer term.

Record warmth overtakes the Midwest — again

What goes down, must come up. With a deep trough in the West helping to aid storminess and snow, there is a subsequent broad ridge over the Central and Eastern U.S. this weekend. That setup is one that is conducive to warm weather, and indeed numerous locations are forecast to come near record highs on Saturday and Sunday.

The upper air map around 20,000 feet this weekend shows a dip in the jet stream in the West (trough) and a ridge in the East, which will help to amplify warm weather this weekend. (Tropical Tidbits)

A few notable ones will occur in Wisconsin with Wausau expected to be 68 degrees on Sunday and La Crosse at 74 degrees. The previous records at those locations on Sunday are 52° and 66° respectively. Admittedly, the Wausau record is extremely low hanging fruit, but even La Crosse is an impressive record considering the previous mark was set in 1894.

Record warmth will once again overtake Wisconsin and much of the Midwest this weekend. Sunday’s forecast highs are shown here. (Pivotal Weather)

Both La Crosse and Wausau have already set or tied 6 to 7 record high temperatures so far this year. Add another one or two to that now. We’re probably not done with the abnormally warm weather either.

Fire weather risks increase again in the Texas Panhandle

The Texas Panhandle saw snow yesterday, just two days after the hellacious wildfire that has consumed over a million acres and become the largest wildfire in Texas history. That moisture was modest at best, so it did not do much other than help accelerate some containment efforts. Unfortunately, this weekend will bring another round of windy, dry weather to the Panhandle, and that could produce a critical fire weather day on both Saturday on Sunday.

Additional critical to locally extreme fire weather risk will overspread the Texas Panhandle this weekend. (NWS Amarillo)

Conditions should not be quite as extreme as were witnessed earlier this week, but the ongoing fires plus risk of any new fire starts with resources stretched to their maximum makes this weekend a more vulnerable one than usual for this region. While rainfall is above normal for the winter season in this part of Texas, that isn’t saying much given that “normal” is pretty low already. A storm or two would go a long way toward helping the situation in the Panhandle.

Rainfall over the next 7 days in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles looks minimal. (Pivotal Weather)

Unfortunately, at least over the next week or so, any rain chances look paltry at best in this region. Hopefully we can turn the corner later this month.

Sierra snow, late season lake effect snow, more Plains fire danger, and more really warm weather to usher in March

Today’s headlines

  • Cold front off the West Coast about to kick off Sierra snow blitz.
  • Heavy lake effect snow just north of Syracuse today.
  • Multiple days of strong winds move from the West into the Plains bringing elevated fire danger once again.
  • More record warmth possible this weekend in the Midwest, Lakes, and Canada.
The U.S. weather map today shows a powerful cold front on the West Coast that will set off the Sierra snowstorm, a few showers and even some wintry precip in Texas, and heavy lake effect snow in Central New York. (NOAA WPC)

Sierra snow blitz

As noted yesterday, blizzard warnings are in place now in California from near Mt. Shasta south to about Sequoia National Park, encompassing most of the Sierra.

A slew of watches, warnings, and advisories are posted all over the West. (Pivotal Weather)

Upwards of 4 to 8 or 5 to 10 feet of snow are expected in the highest elevations, with snow levels down to about 4,500 feet today, 2,000 feet tomorrow, and perhaps as low as 1,000 feet on Saturday. While a lot of the worst of the weather will occur in the backcountry, there will be plenty of folks impacted by this long-duration storm. Travel looks to be severely impacted heading over the Sierra between Sacramento and Reno. In addition, winter storm warnings are posted in Nevada, with perhaps as much as a foot of snow in Reno. Lake Tahoe will be hammered by this one, with 5 to 6 feet expected.

The impressive snowfall forecast for the Sierra showing over 100 inches in spots between today and Sunday. (NWS Reno)

This is both good and bad. Obviously, an extreme winter storm, even in a winter-durable place like the Sierra is capable of causing severe problems. On the flip side, the Sierra snowpack needs a boost. Snow water equivalents, or how much liquid is in the snowpack have been running a deficit for most of winter. Still, 75 to 90 percent of normal isn’t the worst we’ve seen in California in the last 5 to 10 years. This time last year, these values were 150 to 200 percent of normal.

The Sierra snow water equivalent (how much water is in the snowpack) is running a deficit currently, with about 75 to 90% of normal values. (California DWR)

What will this storm do to the snowpack? Probably send it sharply above average. Liquid totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected within all this snow. We’ll check in on this again next week.

Elsewhere on the winter weather front, a burst of lake effect snow will impact Upstate New York today, with some heavy snow north of Syracuse, perhaps over a foot.

Heavy lake effect snow will setup shop just north of Syracuse and perhaps into the Mohawk Valley of Central NY today. Over a foot is possible between Syracuse and Oswego. (NWS Binghamton)

Winds to expand across the West; fire weather risks in the Plains

On the map farther above, you can see a lot of wind advisories and warnings in place for the Western United States. Not only will this storm bring heavy snow to parts of the West, it will also bring strong winds (hence the blizzard warnings in California). You can see the forecast for today has 50 mph or stronger winds in a good swath of Nevada (as well as southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho).

Strong winds, especially in Nevada, southern Oregon, and southwest Idaho have prompted numerous alerts out West. (Pivotal Weather)

The strong winds have also prompted red flag warnings for fire danger in Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa today. By Saturday and Sunday, higher fire danger returns to the Texas Panhandle, which is still dealing with active fires in the wake of Tuesday. The snow and rain in that area will certainly help today and may help allow for Sunday to be less of a critical fire weather day than Tuesday was. Still, it’s not quite enough to dramatically reduce the risk by the time we get to Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting Sunday as a potential serious fire weather day in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles once again. (NOAA SPC)

We’ll keep an eye on this, as that part of Texas really took a hit on Tuesday.

More serious warmth for the Lakes and Midwest into Canada

Warm weather will continue to absolutely dominate the story across the Great Lakes and Midwest. It will actually be warmest relative to normal in Canada, with portions of Quebec averaging 12 to 16 degrees above normal for days 3 to 7.

The temperature anomaly forecast for days 3 through 7 continues to show raging warmth from the Midwest into Canada, with the warmest temperatures compared to normal focused on Quebec. (Tropical Tidbits)

Record temperatures will be in jeopardy. La Crosse, WI for example is forecast to be 73° on Sunday. The record high is 66°, set back in 1894. Some other Midwest and Lakes locations will threaten some pretty old records by later in the weekend.

A whole bunch of unusual, rare, and wild weather is happening simultaneously all over North America

One-sentence summary

Between extreme warmth, tornadoes in odd places, raging fires in Texas, and a blizzard in California, there is no shortage of wild, rare weather to close February.

Tornadoes in Michigan in February?

In and of themselves, tornadoes in Michigan are not uncommon. Tornadoes in winter are rare. Only six previously documented tornadoes have occurred in Michigan in December, January, or February since 1950. Add another two to that after last night.

Storm reports from Tuesday show several tornado reports in red dots in Ohio, Michigan, and Illinois. (NOAA SPC)

According to the Storm Prediction Center, two tornadoes were reported yesterday, one near Marshall and another near Grand Blanc, MI. The other winter tornadoes included one in January 1996 near Richland, MI (just outside Battle Creek and Kalamazoo), one west of Detroit in December 2015, and then four on the last day of February in 2017 near the Indiana border.

So, winter tornadoes are rare to begin with, yet having one as far northeast as Grand Blanc, which is near Flint seems completely out of place in the wintertime. This comes on the heels of Wisconsin recording their first February tornado on record earlier this month. January tornadoes have occurred in Wisconsin, with Janesville on the receiving end of an especially bad one in 1967.

Front page of the Janesville, WI Daily Gazette from January 25, 1967, the day after a tornado ravaged the area. (Newspapers.com)

Tornado statistics are tough to do a whole lot with authoritatively. Some tornadoes are very brief and never reported. Reports have increased dramatically since records started being kept, so it’s entirely possible we’re missing some reports from back in the day. But however you want to slice it, tornadoes this far north during this time of year are straight up rare. And to have more than one distinct event in a very far north part of the country this close in proximity to one another further underscores how unusual this is.

Record warmth over a tremendous swath of real estate

On the day of the Janesville tornado noted above, they hit 60 degrees before dropping to about 25 the next morning. Interestingly, if you look at Cold Spring, WI just northeast of Janesville, they pulled off one heck of a change yesterday to today. Temperatures were over 71 degrees yesterday and dropped to below 13 degrees this morning.

Dozens and dozens of records were smashed this week, including multiple monthly temperature records. Monthly records fell in Quebec, Ontario, Missouri, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Arkansas, according to Maximiliano Herrera, who keeps an exhaustive record of these things.

Dozens of daily record temperatures occurred yesterday and this morning across much of the Midwest, Mid-Continent, and Great Lakes. (Coolwx.com)

Not only are some of these monthly records being replaced, they’re being replaced by several degrees and being attained in multiple, disparate spots in these states. Even Mexico has seen incredible extent of record warmth. The breadth of the warm weather we’ve seen at times in the last few years boggles the minds of many meteorologists, including those like ourselves that tend to view things from a grounded, level-headed perspective.

Texas Panhandle burning

Over the last few days, a number of fires have broken out in parts of the Texas Panhandle. Fire behavior went off the rails yesterday, as strong winds ahead of a cold front and strong winds and dry air behind the cold front allowed for extreme growth and spread.

A annotated map of the extent of various Texas Panhandle fires as of Wednesday afternoon. (Wildfire.gov)

We’ve seen bad fires in Texas before, especially in the Panhandle. This in and of itself is not necessarily uncommon. March and April tend to be the big Texas fire months historically, so this is certainly at least a bit early. Texas’s largest wildfire (going back to the 1980s) was the East Amarillo Complex, which occurred in March of 2006. The Smokehouse Creek complex is now the second largest on record in Texas, thanks in part to how quickly it grew yesterday. What is intriguing to me is how this happened despite that part of Texas being mostly out of drought. Compare the Drought Monitor maps below showing current conditions to the conditions preceding the 2006 East Amarillo complex. There are notable differences here.

An image comparison of the current drought status in the Panhandle and the drought status preceding the largest wildfire in Texas history, the East Amarillo complex. (U.S. Drought Monitor)

Whatever the case, the burn scar is clearly visible this morning on satellite imagery, a depressing coda to a pretty terrible situation for the Panhandle.

The burn scar from wildfires in the Texas Panhandle is visible on satellite imagery today. (College of DuPage)

California blizzard warnings for the Sierra

When we think of the Sierra Nevada in California, snow certainly comes to mind. But not often do Blizzard Warnings get issued in that part of the world. The storm that will impact them over the coming days has prompted some pretty severe warnings about travel and conditions within the mountains. Upwards of 5 to 10 feet of snow could fall, likely shifting the Sierra from deficit to surplus on the season in terms of snowpack.

Timeline of the upcoming storm in the Sierra that will dump 5 to 10 feet of snow in some spots. (NWS Sacramento)

The last such blizzard type event literally occurred a year ago. This storm looks even more powerful.

Additional rain will occur for parts of California as well, including a chance of thunderstorms for places including San Francisco.

Between rain and the water contained in the snowpack that’s going to build this weekend, a whole lot of water is headed to California again. (Pivotal Weather)

The bottom line is that the weather is pretty wild right now. While some of it is typical for a spring-type setup, a lot of abnormal, unusual, and rare things are occurring simultaneously, a theme we’ve grappled with on more than one occasion recently.