The Eyewall

One-sentence summary

While the final forecast for Lee is no clearer today than it was previously, there are some signs that we can begin to hone in on a region more likely to see Lee eventually.

Hurricane Lee: 105 mph, moving WNW 9 mph

What’s changed since yesterday?

Lee has continued to have to battle shear, and as a result it has weakened back to a category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Lee has also slowed its forward speed down as expected by about 5 mph versus yesterday.

Everything else is mostly on track as forecast.

Lee’s intensity forecast

I had sort of expected to see that Lee would organize a bit more yesterday evening, but that failed to materialize. Modeling suggests that shear may relax a little over Lee, but I’m wondering if that ever happens. The direction of the shear may change, which could, I guess, lead to some readjustment on the intensity outlook here. In general, modeling forecasts intensification again over the next 2 days or so before a slow weakening trend. Lee will probably compensate a bit for weakening by growing its wind field over the next week as it goes north.

Lee’s track forecast

I’ll preface this by saying that confidence in Lee’s final outcome isn’t higher today than it was yesterday. However, there have been a few trends worth noting. First, the forecast track of Margot seems to have come into better agreement among models since yesterday, taking it more straight north than north-northwest. This tends to reduce the odds of an interaction with Lee. Perhaps one less variable in the equation then.

Second, there seems to have been a bit of a boost in agreement in Lee’s track as it comes north, or what I would say is “less spread” in the track. We now have ensemble modeling in moderate agreement on a track aimed broadly toward Nova Scotia late.

Now, a few big things to note here. First, just because we now have moderate track agreement toward Nova Scotia does not mean a.) that Nova Scotia is the target for Lee when it comes north or b.) that impacts will not be felt far outside that track. The ultimate track of Lee continues to bounce around in both time and space. The timing differences have narrowed a bit today along the track of Lee, which means by tomorrow or Tuesday we can probably peg the timing of impacts a bit better. Secondly, while most modeling broadly points it to between Downeast Maine and Nova Scotia, it does not mean that Cape Cod or Newfoundland can unplug here. There is still a wide array of tracks and options, including a handful that try to nudge it back northwest toward even Long Island or southern New England.

So, we’ve been slowly “clearing” places from Lee, and I think today that may include North Carolina. Modeling shows this staying well east of North Carolina now, so from there south to Florida, this isn’t your storm. Bermuda? Still needs to watch closely. I would probably continue to watch this from Virginia to New Jersey, watching it fairly close from Long Island through Rhode Island, and watch it very close between Cape Cod and Newfoundland, including New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island.

Again, no one knows for sure where Lee will go. The best we can do is gradually narrow the focus a little. In the meantime, expect rough surf and rip currents to be prominent issues in the Bahamas, Bermuda, and up and down the East Coast this week. More on Lee tomorrow.

Margot and 97L

As I noted above, Tropical Storm Margot’s track is coming into better focus today. Margot is expected to go basically due north or maybe just slightly west of due north over the next several days. It is also expected to become a hurricane.

Margot is still not expected to impact land.

Behind Margot, we have now established the new Invest 97L, which is located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some operational modeling has gone wild with this one, bringing it to the Gulf or up the East Coast. We continue to not really see that as a major concern right now. We’ll keep tabs on 97L, but the odds of developing are only around 30 percent or so in the meantime.

Otherwise, the Gulf and Caribbean continue to look quiet for the next 7 to 10 days or longer.

One-sentence summary

Hurricane Lee will continue off to the west-northwest before turning northward east of the Bahamas/Turks & Caicos and heading off the East Coast and to the north.

Hurricane Lee: 115 mph, moving WNW 12 mph

What’s changed since yesterday?

Lee has fluctuated back down to a category 3 hurricane, but there are some indications that Lee may be beginning another cycle of intensification today. Fluctuations up and down in intensity are expected over the next several days.

Lee’s intensity forecast

As noted, Lee has ebbed to a category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. It does seem as if it wants to begin another cycle of intensification, however, and the official NHC forecast brings it back up to a category 4 storm tomorrow or Monday. Lee is battling some wind shear right now, and it has taken on a rather ragged look, but per the most recent discussion from the Hurricane Center, it’s pretty evident that Lee still has plenty of punch. Reconnaissance flights were unable to get into the northeast eyewall of Lee this morning due to safety concerns around the thunderstorm activity in that part of the storm.

The shear is sort of a wild card with Lee right now. If it holds on more than forecast, Lee may sort of oscillate between category 2 and 3 intensity over the next few days. If the wind shear can relax enough, Lee would be capable of intensifying again back to category 4 or so. The NHC has taken this into account in their forecast, which shows some strengthening in the near-term, followed by a drop in intensity late.

Regardless of “what” Lee is, it will remain a potent storm over the next 5 to 7 days. Rip currents and rough surf will be a feature along the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda, the northern Caribbean islands, and the Bahamas. Eventually the rough surf will make it to Atlantic Canada as well.

Lee’s track forecast

Everything is in line with what has been expected through early next week, which is to say that Lee should comfortably avoid the Caribbean islands and avoid the Turks and Caicos Islands as well. While there is still a bit of uncertainty on exactly where Lee will turn northward, there is *strong* model agreement that it will occur before Lee gets close enough to bring direct impacts to the southeast Bahamas and Turks & Caicos Islands.

If you live in Florida, you remain in the clear from Lee and do not need to worry about this storm. Easier said than done, I know, but no reliable modeling shows Lee coming remotely close to making it that far west.

Farther up the East Coast, we have little to no additional clarity today on Lee’s future track. The good news I guess is that we do have confidence that Lee will turn northwest, north-northwest, north, and eventually north-northeast. But exactly how that happens remains to be seen and everyone from about Delmarva through Atlantic Canada, as well as Bermuda should be continuing to monitor Lee’s progress.

The map above shows track density, or roughly how many of the dozens of ensemble members agree on where Lee will go. Notice that the confidence is actually moderate that Lee will turn north and end up somewhere west of Bermuda. But from there, confidence drops.

One of the biggest problems right now is timing. We know Lee will slow down once it gets just east of 70° longitude. How fast does Lee come north? There is significant, massive model disagreement on timing of that speed once the turn gets made. For example, the European ensemble’s 51 members (not shown) have the center of Lee anywhere between just east of Cape Hatteras to north of Prince Edward Island next Saturday. That is roughly a 1,000 mile along-track spread. So we have high confidence in the turn, high confidence that it will go northward and pass just west of Bermuda but low confidence in how quickly it goes north, and that has implications on what to expect if you live in Halifax or Boston or Montauk.

I will say, it appears that the threat of direct impacts is fairly low right now from Long Island into the Mid-Atlantic. You should still monitor things, but the consensus view of modeling is that Lee will pass to the east of the areas hard hit by Sandy. New England? A slightly different story, as there is still a good deal of modeling bringing Lee close to Cape Cod or the islands. Still, most of it keeps it east, but it’s close enough. Maine and Nova Scotia into western portions of Newfoundland may be most at risk in the current environment. Again, the timing and intensity and exact track are impossible to nail down right now. But you can plainly see above that modeling is skewed right now toward the Maritime provinces.

We’ll continue to keep you posted.

Elsewhere: Margot and the MDR

Tropical Storm Margot continues to plod along in the open ocean.

Margot has a good bit of warm water to work with over the next 3 days, so it should intensify close to hurricane strength before it approaches the cooler waters of the North Atlantic. Margot remains a bit of a wild card in terms of Lee’s track and we’ll likely be talking a little more about this storm later next week.

There continue to be some hints of another wave emerging off Africa and trying to make a go of it in the Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR) next week. As of now, there is not much else to say about that storm except that we are likely to see some outlier solutions on operational model guidance, so try not to read into that too much. Most reliable data says that this will be a slow developing system and may even struggle some.

One-sentence summary

Hurricane Lee has rapidly intensified into a powerful category 5 storm, and while it will not threaten land for at least a week or so, it will stir up rough surf and rip currents from the Caribbean to the East Coast of the U.S. in coming days.

One-image summary

Hurricane Lee: 165 mph, moving WNW 14 mph

What’s changed since yesterday?

Lee went from an 80 mph storm yesterday to a 165 one today, an extraordinary rate of intensification that places it on the leaderboard in recent years. Lee is on the cusp of being one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record.

Lee continues west-northwest, and while models continue to agree on an eventual northward turn, the timing, speed, and location of that turn will be important in determining the next steps next week.

Lee’s impacts through the weekend

Lee will not directly impact any land mass over the next few days. But it will make itself known. Large swells generated from Lee are expected in the northern Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and eventually Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas. Rough surf and very strong rip currents are expected, so if you live in these areas or are planning to swim in these areas this weekend or next week, please be very, very cautious.

Swells will build and begin to impact the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda, and eventually the Canadian Maritimes, probably building from south to north beginning around Sunday. Much of next week will feature rough surf and strong rip currents on the Eastern Seaboard.

Lee’s intensity forecast

We should be seeing peak Lee today. Normally, category 5 storms do not stay there. They become vulnerable to internal and some external forces that can cause them to fluctuate in intensity, sometimes considerably. Lee could Sisyphus its way along the intensity scale tonight through Sunday.

Beyond that, Lee is likely to drop back a notch, probably fluctuating between category 2 and 4 intensity next week as it turns the corner off the East Coast. Certainly still a powerful storm but not quite peak intensity. As Lee further gains latitude later next week, it should weaken further, but in compensation, it could expand in size or increase its forward speed some. Its impacts would still not be that of a category 5 in terms of wind, but it will be capable of causing problems should it make it to land or close to land.

Lee’s track forecast

We have little clarity on Lee’s track next week, except to say that it still is likely to miss to the east of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. As Lee advances forward, it will slow down. When Lee gets to a point somewhere just northeast of the Turks & Caicos Islands or southeast Bahamas, we will see it possibly slow to a crawl. This should occur Monday and Tuesday.

Lee will then turn hard to the north. Beyond that point, Lee will be fighting a battle with a trough (dip in the jet stream) over the Eastern U.S., high pressure to Lee’s east, likely-Hurricane Margot, and a fairly substantial area of high pressure that establishes over Newfoundland. You can see those features on the map below. Again, the placement and intensity of these features will determine if Lee goes toward New England, toward Nova Scotia, out to sea, or out to sea and toward Bermuda. But it is clear that any direct land impacts would probably not occur until the end of next week or even next weekend.

I’m curious about two things today. First, the ridge north of Bermuda extending up to Newfoundland may be a key to all this. It’s going to essentially narrow the escape route. If that were not there, we’d likely see Lee get picked up and ushered out to sea, no problem. With that exit door now cracked instead of wide open, I just get the sense that this is not going to exit easily.

Second, how will Margot and Lee interact? Last night’s operational European operational model showed an interesting scenario where the two systems come close to interacting with the Fujiwhara effect. In that scenario, Lee could theoretically be forced to go a bit to the east and Margot a bit to the west. There is a trivial but not impossible scenario where Lee gets directed away from land or a specific land point because of this.

More importantly, all of this underscores just how difficult predicting Lee’s end game will be for another few days at least. It’s a good time to review your hurricane plans if you live along the Mid-Atlantic or New England Coasts or in Canada to be safe, but we have a long, long way to go here.

We will keep you posted each day this weekend on forecast developments.

Margot makes a splash

Tropical Storm Margot formed yesterday in the far eastern Atlantic. It will not be a threat to land over the next week.

Margot is expected to become a hurricane, another feather in the cap of those who predicted an active season this year. As noted above, we’ll watch to see if it can’t have influence on Lee’s eventual track outcome late next week.

Anything else?

Nope. The basin, at this point looks as though it should quiet down a bit outside of Lee and Margot. No new systems are expected for most of next week, although some recent GFS and Euro ensemble runs are trying to spin up another Cape Verde system late in the week. Nothing else we need to fret over right now, however.

One-sentence summary

Hurricane Lee is intensifying east of the Caribbean Islands, and it will likely become a category 4 or 5 storm this weekend before tracking northeast of the Bahamas and slowing down some, increasing uncertainty as to where it will ultimately track next week.

Hurricane Lee: 80 mph, moving WNW 13 mph

What’s changed since Wednesday?

Lee is now a hurricane and likely beginning its rapid intensification process. The forecast track remains highly uncertain beyond the weekend.

Lee’s intensity outlook

Hurricane Lee should be in an environment conducive to steady, if not rapid intensification over the next couple days. We’re likely to see this become a category 4, if not a category 5 storm. Once it gets there, it will hold, with some fluctuations for a few days. Storms that achieve category 5 intensity usually do not stay there for more than a day or so, as the storm becomes vulnerable to eyewall replacement cycles which weaken winds but expand the radius of strong winds. Other factors like shear and forward speed can impact storms more when they reach top-end intensity. It is going to remain a powerful hurricane for awhile, but its peak intensity may be (relatively) brief.

Once Lee comes farther west and begins to turn more northward, it will likely encounter more unstable water temperatures as well. It could be dealing with remnant cooler water churned up by Hurricanes Franklin and Idalia. It may also slow down for a time to a point where it churns up cooler water itself that could lead to some “self-destructive behavior” (insert your own jokes here). Just to be clear, I’m not trying to downplay it, quite the contrary. Folks should know that you are going to observe these fluctuations in intensity, and that is absolutely normal, expected behavior for powerful hurricanes that should not lead to dismissing it as a “bust” or to qualify it as “weaker.” Despite lower top-end wind speed, the storm will probably grow in physical size some as it figures out where it’s going next week.

Lee’s track

I really can’t emphasize enough that there are so many factors that will dictate Lee’s ultimate track. Each one of these factors will matter daily next week. Imagine trying to forecast for five completely disparate locations 6 to 7 days in advance and nailing every aspect of that forecast perfectly. You probably can’t. I’ve done this for almost 20 years now, and I know I can’t. Because to unlock the key to Lee’s end game, you have to basically do just that.

So the map above shows you what’s happening around 20,000 feet up on Monday night. Lee at this point is north of the Caribbean islands and east of the Turks and Caicos Islands. High pressure to the north of Lee should weaken enough to allow Lee to barge through and start coming northwest or north. Additionally, Invest 96L may play some role (the “L” on the map above) in determining the orientation of things to the east of Lee. One of the big issues will be exactly what things look like when that turn happens. Where does that happen and when does that happen, and what will the trough (blue area) over the Great Lakes look like when that occurs. Because ultimately, that trough is going to have a say in Lee’s trajectory, and that could determine if Lee tracks close enough to the East Coast to cause impacts. Additionally, high pressure over Atlantic Canada (which has strengthened some in forecasts since yesterday) may also play a key role. In other words, we’re still at a loss as to Lee’s future simply because there are too many players out there trying to influence Lee’s movement and trying to precisely place them 5 to 7 days out is difficult. That placement matters a lot.

So, folks on the East Coast should continue to monitor Lee. Bermuda and the Canadian Maritime provinces should continue to monitor Lee. And, yes, the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas should as well. This is a tricky, delicately balanced situation and hopefully some consensus will emerge in the coming days.

Elsewhere

As noted above, Invest 96L is still out there and going to make a go for development into the weekend. It will not threaten land, but it will be part of Lee’s answer key. The next name on the list is Margot. Besides that, I don’t see much else over the next week or so of note.

Pacific Hurricane Jova

Quick note because I have a minute. Here is Hurricane Jova.

Jova is a beastly storm thankfully in the open waters of the East Pacific. It will not threaten the U.S. or Mexico. But I point it out because it has 160 mph winds and is a category 5 storm after rapidly, furiously intensifying. Storms this large can influence some things around it, so there’s probably some inherent forecast uncertainty to the west of Lee thanks in part to this storm. Aside from that, category five storms are a heck of a thing to observe in real-time. Glad it’s over the open ocean.