The Eyewall

One-sentence summary

Bret’s center has cleared the islands, but heavy rain remains behind it, as Tropical Storm Cindy scurries about over the open Atlantic.

Happening now: Bret about to enter the Caribbean graveyard, Cindy doing its own thing

Tropical Storm Bret

Bret is not the first storm, nor will it be the last storm to enter the eastern Caribbean and be devoured by wind shear. We call this part of the Atlantic a hurricane graveyard. And that’s actually rooted in science. Many storms enter this part of the basin and fizzle out. It has to do with a low level jet (strong winds about 5,000 feet up) and wind shear that is particularly enhanced during El Niño summers such as this one. Bret is feeling that now, and the feeling will grow in the coming days.

Bret has a lot of storms associated with it, but it looks very disheveled at the moment.

But, just looking at that satellite loop above, you aren’t thinking 60 mph tropical storm. For all intents and purpose, Bret will be lucky to survive into tomorrow.

Bret will continue due west until it degenerates into an open tropical wave sometime before it gets south of Jamaica.

Impacts from Bret will be in the form of rainfall and choppy seas, neither of which look especially serious at this time. Another 1 to 3 inches of rain are possible from Dominica south through St. Vincent and the Grenadines or Grenada. Some downpours may even clip Bonaire, Curacao, or Aruba on the way out, but nothing serious is expected there.

Otherwise, we can say bye to Bret.

Tropical Storm Cindy

To the east of the islands, Tropical Depression 4 developed into Tropical Storm Cindy late last night, our third named storm and fourth overall of 2023. Thankfully, Cindy is not a threat to land, and it will experience a relatively quick demise in the days ahead.

Cindy looks like a blob this morning, clearly fighting wind shear. The thunderstorms are displaced to the south and west of the center.

Over the next couple days, Cindy will gradually turn northwest, likely struggling a bit the whole way. Shear and dry air will take a toll, and Cindy will degenerate into an open wave next week, north and east of the islands. It is no threat to land at this time.

The medium-range (days 6-10): Quieting down

Cindy’s remnants will turn northward and probably remain disorganized in some capacity possibly near Bermuda at some point. But it could bring a bout of unsettled weather to the island. That third tropical wave behind Cindy is unlikely to develop. Elsewhere, there’s nothing to speak of, and we should enter July on a quiet note.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Nothing expected

At this time, nothing is expected to cause issues through July 10th or so. I do think we’ll begin to see moisture return to the western Gulf as high pressure that’s been baking Texas and Mexico begins to shift away. But from this distance at least, it does not appear anything will develop.

Tropical Storm Bret is a feisty fellow this morning. It’s about as strong as you can get for a tropical storm before becoming a hurricane. Again, keep in mind that these 70 mph winds are in a small area, not over the entirety of the storm. Hazards such as heavy rain and rough surf will be bigger issues for most of the impacted islands. The good news is that Bret will likely peak in intensity soon before beginning a weakening trend leading to its demise this weekend. Behind Bret, Invest 93L was upgraded to Tropical Depression 4 overnight. It is currently no threat to land.

One-sentence summary

While the Atlantic is bustling with action, the main item to watch is Tropical Storm Bret which will impact the Lesser Antilles with heavy rain, rough seas, and gusty winds today before exiting into the Caribbean and dissipating this weekend.

Happening now: An August-like Atlantic with TS Bret and TD 4

It’s not often we have two Atlantic storms in June, let alone simultaneous ones, but these are not normal times. Here’s the latest.

TS Bret

Per the National Hurricane Center (NHC) discussion this morning, there were some pretty healthy winds measured overnight in Bret, but they were pretty isolated. Bret is trying to form an eye, but because of shear, that eye feature is displaced east of the surface center. In plain language: Bret is trying hard to fight the shear but it can only do so much. Here is a more annotated look at Bret’s structure this morning.

Anyway, the NHC has set the intensity to 70 mph, which again is in a small area. Bret’s biggest impacts to the islands will be via heavy rain and rough seas.

As of the 5 AM AST advisory:

Tropical Storm Warning (TS conditions likely within 36 hours): St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica
Hurricane Watch (Hurricane conditions possible within 48 hours): St. Lucia
Tropical Storm Watch (TS conditions possible within 48 hours): Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Expect Bret to pass near or make landfall on St. Lucia tonight. In terms of wind, the strongest winds will be along and north of where the center tracks, so St. Lucia and Martinique are likely to see the most gusty conditions and the best chance at sustained tropical storm force winds. The higher terrain of some of these islands will be most exposed to strong winds. Given Bret’s size, tropical storm force winds and gusts could extend from Barbados and St. Vincent north to Dominica. Most places will not see the 70 mph winds, however.

Rough seas will be the most widespread concern. They will continue to build today, with 8 to 11 foot seas expected as the storm approaches and passes in much of the central part of the island chain.

Rainfall may be the most serious concern with as much as 6 to 10 inches of rain, especially at higher terrain. The most likely islands to experience those higher end totals would be St. Lucia and St. Vincent. But I would not be shocked to see some higher end totals on Dominica, Barbados, or Martinique also. In general, 3 to 6 inches of rain will fall, but totals will ultimately vary.

Why are we confident that Bret will dissipate in the Caribbean? It will run into a face-ripping amount of wind shear. That’s never good for tropical systems, and Bret will be the next in a long line of storms to enter the Caribbean and not survive the trip.

So to summarize: We are mainly watching rough seas and heavy rain with Bret from Dominica south to Grenada, although a few areas will see some considerable winds, as Bret is a strong tropical storm.

Tropical Depression 4

Looking east of Bret, we have TD 4. This system does not look especially well-organized this morning, but it may do just enough in the next day or two to attain tropical storm status. The next name is Cindy.

The forecast for TD 4 is pretty straightforward. It will be more apt to turn northwest into a weakness between high pressure systems in the Atlantic, which should allow it to run head on into wind shear by Sunday or Monday.

Whatever the case, this system is currently no real threat to land.

The medium range (days 6-10): Beginning to settle down a bit

There is another wave trailing TD 4, but as of right now support for that to develop seems to have dropped off some. So at this point, we don’t expect anything meaningful in days six through ten.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Nothing of note

There is nothing of note out in the long-range. Hopefully after TD 4 (or Cindy) we get a couple weeks of quiet.

Good morning. Tropical Storm Bret continues to churn west in the Atlantic, working its way toward the Caribbean. It’s very clearly running into some challenges that are impeding it from strengthening a whole lot at this point, and it has about 24 to 36 hours left before those challenges get even more difficult to fend off.

One-sentence summary

Tropical Storm Bret, ragged as it looks this morning, could bring heavy rain and tropical storm conditions to several islands in the Lesser Antilles tomorrow before steadily weakening once it enters the Caribbean.

Happening now: Bret feeling the thorns of the rose

Besides Bret, we continue to watch Invest 93L, which has an 80 percent chance of developing over the next several days. More on that below. First, let’s walk through our main item.

Tropical Storm Bret

As of the 5 AM advisory, Bret is a moderately strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Tropical Storm Watches have been posted for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia. Those should be adjusted or expanded later today.

The environment around Bret is a bit tough right now. There is about 20 to 40 knots of westerly wind shear zipping across the northern quarter of Bret’s circulation. In the satellite loop above, you can see how ragged the northern half of Bret looks compared to the southern half, and that’s likely due to wind shear. On the northwestern side of Bret, there is a bit of dry air as well. Because of Bret’s size (it’s got a fairly large circulation), it can’t quite fend that off completely. In fact, Bret’s size may be working against it some, as it is being exposed to more adversity than a smaller storm might be.

So to summarize: Bret is an acceptable tropical storm by June standards for sure, but it is dealing with some dry air and a good bit of wind shear that will probably cap Bret’s intensity and trend it weaker as it moves into the Caribbean. An Air Force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is expected to investigate Bret today to get a better idea of what’s happening out there.

From here, Bret’s track is pretty straightforward. Virtually all of the hurricane models and global models and ensembles are in good agreement that Bret will basically track due west or just north of due west into the Caribbean, somewhere between about Dominica and St. Vincent, and near or just north of Barbados. Because of Bret’s size, many of the Leeward and Windward Islands will experience heavy rain and some version of tropical storm conditions. Because of Bret’s speed, those conditions will probably pass relatively fast.

Virtually all models have Bret degenerating into a depression by Saturday. Its remnants should continue west toward Central America, bringing some locally heavy rain along the way.

Rain totals are expected to be on the order of 1 to 4 inches from Bret due to its speed and disorganization as it tracks through the islands. Max rain totals will probably occur somewhere between Martinique and Grenada. For Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola minimal direct impacts are expected, though seas could be a bit choppy.

Invest 93L

Meanwhile, we continue to watch Invest 93L behind Bret.

It still needs a bit of work before we start seriously considering this for upgrade status to a depression. But, it’s certainly got a good bit of storms with it, which doesn’t hurt. At this point, 93L is expected to turn northwest as it comes west, passing north of the islands and out to sea. It too will likely have a window to develop before it hits wind shear that overwhelms it and leads to weakening. Something to keep tabs on but nothing to worry much over at this time.

The medium range (days 6-10): Ain’t no party like an MDR party

The main development region (MDR) of the tropical Atlantic is more on fire than Stockton & Malone in NBA Jam (though I was more of a Barkley/Majerle guy myself). Behind Bret and 93L lies another tropical wave that will make an effort to develop in the medium range. Whether it does or does not is TBD, but even the fact that we’re talking about three systems in late June in the deep tropics is virtually unheard of. This next wave may be a bit too far south to really get going, but we’ll see.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Some pattern shuffling in the U.S. & Atlantic?

At this time, we don’t believe any systems will become notable in the day 10 to 15 timeframe, but there may be a little reason to watch some things. The pattern in the Atlantic, as well as high pressure responsible for extreme heat over Texas and Mexico are helping to direct traffic either out to sea or toward Central America as weak disturbances. But once we get into the day 10 to 15 timeframe, the pattern may change some. We will detail what that means in the coming days, but to reiterate, we have nothing specific to watch beyond day 10 right now.