We hope everyone had a good weekend. This week at The Eyewall, we’ll keep tabs on next week, when the pattern is expected to get at least a little more favorable for some type of noise. Maybe. We will also check in on Saharan dust tomorrow. This Wednesday, look for the first significant piece from us on the spate of high-end hurricanes in recent years in the Gulf of Mexico. We talked to experts, read research, and broke down what we think is important for you to know if you live anywhere along the Gulf Coast. We hope you’ll check it out.
One-sentence summary
The Atlantic looks quiet for another week, with minimal development chances and a whole lot of wind shear dominating the picture.
Happening now: Very little!
Let’s take a look at the satellite image of the Atlantic this morning.
We start the week with a very quiet Gulf and Caribbean. There are still some decent storms pushing off Africa, but nothing should come of those. Some disorganized activity is scattered about off the Southeast coast. (College of DuPage)
This week is starting off quiet. The Gulf and Caribbean are void of much in the way of thunderstorm activity, and there’s nothing in the Atlantic of note. Saharan dust and dry air are mostly in control right now, with a dollop of wind shear. You can expect this sort of satellite image with those conditions.
The medium range (days 6-10): Nothing expected
As of right now, we don’t expect any development in the medium range period. Certainly not through the weekend. I will say that there are a couple reasons to think that perhaps early next week we could start seeing more thunderstorm activity in either the southwest Caribbean or on the Pacific side of Central America. None of those areas would feature a candidate for development at this point, however. Just a little more to talk about.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): The GFS won’t give it up
The GFS continues to advertise a spurious tropical system in the Caribbean and/or Gulf. I sort of debuted our TikTok account this weekend with an explanation on that. We’ll work on a way to cross-post videos like this elsewhere for those that prefer to avoid TikTok. Whatever the case, I also wrote about this Friday and quite frankly not much has changed. I would argue that the overall pattern looks a little more interesting next week, but exactly what we can generate from it, if anything at all, remains uncertain. I would say that if I had to bet, the eastern Pacific basin would be much more likely to see something before the Caribbean does beyond day 10. But we’ll see. More tomorrow!
Happy Friday! Congratulations, we made it through the week without a named storm. Let’s do it again next week. There’s not a lot new to add forecast-wise today, so we’ll keep it brief and then tie together all the threads of our seasonal outlook below. Next week, we’ll touch on dust, and look for a bit of a longer-form piece on the spate of recent major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and what it does or does not tell us about the future. A lot of effort went into that and I think it’s important to understand, so I hope you’ll check it out next week.
Meanwhile, be sure to give our social feeds a follow on the right (or bottom on mobile) and spread the word to your family and friends on the East Coast, Gulf Coast, Atlantic Canada, Caribbean, or Central America!
One-sentence summary
No tropical development is expected over the next seven to ten days.
Happening now: All’s quiet
Take a quick peak at the satellite image across the Atlantic basin, and while it’s definitely not quiet, there is nothing of note anywhere out there, as you expect in June.
We’ve periodically seen flare ups of storms across the basin, though this morning isn’t too bad. The loudest area is off Cuba and in the Bahamas. Noisy at times, yes, but nothing is organized. (College of DuPage)
The medium range (days 6-10): Still nothing
We continue to watch for activity to get a little more interesting late, but through day 10 at least, there’s nothing to really speak of out there.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): No change in thinking
Well, yesterday, NOAA declared that we’re officially in an El Niño now. This gives us a bit of confidence that we’re going to maintain at least a weak, if not a moderate El Niño (or stronger) through the peak of hurricane season. The wind shear imparted on the Atlantic by El Niño is a tough barrier to get past. It would be difficult to expect an active hurricane season given El Niño. But given the setup in the Atlantic, it seems difficult to expect this season to behave quite as quietly as past El Niño seasons. One need only look at the European model forecast for the season to see this.
The ECMWF (European model) is calling for an above average season of activity in the Atlantic basin. (ECMWF)
It calls for an above average hurricane season. It says, to heck with El Niño, the Atlantic is blazing, let’s rev it up! I think it’s notable to look back to last year in June, however. The ECMWF was also calling for a very active season (as were most of us), and that did not materialize. Last year was “average” statistically.
So given all this, I call forecasting an average season the path of least resistance. What I ultimately think could happen is that the Caribbean struggles due to shear, the eastern Atlantic is very busy, and the most concerning items this season will be systems close to home that form when wind shear relaxes some, possibly off the Southeast and in the Gulf. I believe it will be tough to relax shear enough this season to produce the ultra high-end storms we’ve seen in recent years, but that’s completely speculative on my part. We’ve also seen some instances in recent years where shear has actually helped some storms along, depending on where exactly it was placed. So never say never.
Back on Tuesday I said that the consensus forecast (16 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes) was as good a forecast as you could offer right now. I stand by that, with perhaps slightly higher odds for a little under those hurricane/major hurricane numbers.
Thanks to Eric for covering yesterday. Much like we do with Space City Weather, he and I will split duties, though I’ll spearhead most of this site, as he does with Space City Weather. Today we’ll discuss more about why the GFS model is probably getting the day 10+ range wrong. We’ll also tackle part 3 of our seasonal outlook which discusses water temperatures in the Atlantic.
One-sentence summary
The tropics are quiet, and we continue to believe that what is shown on the GFS model late in its forecast period is not a serious concern.
Happening now: Not too much!
All is quiet across the tropics this morning with no disturbances of note. The main weather feature right now is an upper low near New England that has been responsible for directing Canadian wildfire smoke into the East.
Copious amounts of wildfire smoke have produced the worst air quality in decades in much of the Mid-Atlantic and New York. (College of DuPage)
While this is not directly related to tropical weather, it was noteworthy to watch the squashing of fair weather clouds as smoke moved into some locations in the Northeast. Reminiscent of how Saharan dust can help inhibit tropical systems. We’ll touch more on the dust situation next week.
The medium range (days 6-10): Nothing yet
We continue to see quiet conditions likely to continue through about day 10, so there is not much to discuss here.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): The GFS is probably still wrong
We’ve talked about this for a few days now, but we also know that when something shows something adverse consistently, it can spark some concerns. Despite the fact that the GFS operational model has shown a substantial storm for multiple straight runs in the day 12 to 16 timeframe, we remain fairly convicted that it’s really nothing to worry over. Besides the fact that the GFS frequently gravitates toward “scareicanes” in the Gulf this time of year, Eric also touched on the ensembles not supporting it yesterday. That remains true today.
Only a handful of the 30+ GFS ensemble members show tracks of a meaningful tropical system on this “spaghetti plot” at the same time the GFS operational model shows one, indicating that, at the least, what happens probably will not do so as the operational model shows. (Weathernerds.org)
Operational model runs are really just that: One run of one model. It’s deterministic. This is what the model thinks is going to happen, and that’s that. Ensemble guidance is much more nuanced. You take those models, like the GFS or ECMWF (the Euro) and run it 30 to 50 different times with tweaks to how the model is initialized, the starting point that it bases the rest of the forecast on. By doing this, you get a more realistic set of possible outcomes than just what one deterministic model shows. And in the case of this rogue GFS model storm, the ensemble guidance offers little additional support for something like the operational model shows. And the European model? It shows nothing at all.
That said, there’s good reason to think that something may be afoot late. I touched on this a little back on Monday. But the overall background pattern is going to become a bit more supportive for rising air in the Atlantic.
The overall pattern late in the forecast period (after June 19th or so) is favorable for some sort of nonsense in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf, but it probably looks nothing like what the GFS operational has shown and may be a bit sloppier. It could even end up in the Pacific. Long way to go. (Tropical Tidbits)
Couple that with an upper level pattern that shows a mean trough (dip in the jet stream) over the Southeast, eastern Gulf, and western Caribbean, and that argues that, broadly, we look more favorable for tropical development toward the final 7 to 10 days of June. But probably not like what the GFS operational model is showing at the moment. We’ll see if this can roll forward as we move into next week.
The 2023 seasonal outlook Part 3: Atlantic Ocean water temperatures
On Tuesday we discussed what the outlooks were for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Yesterday we broke down El Niño. Today, let’s look at the Atlantic Ocean. With the exception of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, the area off the immediate Southeast and Mid Atlantic coasts, and a chunk of the subtropical Atlantic, the entire basin is running hot, with widespread water temperature anomalies that are above normal.
Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from earlier this week across the Atlantic basin, with a couple exceptions, are on fire right now. (Weather Bell)
It’s tough to find a true analog to this year though because a.) this is the record warmest and b.) no previous upper-end warm eastern Atlantic basin temperatures coincided with an El Niño event in the Pacific. But, looking at the Atlantic in a box, if you took the five warmest years outlined in CSU’s forecast behind 2023, you averaged 23 named storms. Big yikes. Compare this to what we said about El Niño yesterday, which averaged 9 storms. Those goalposts are wide enough for <insert the name of a football kicker who has undoubtedly made you angry at some point> to never miss. No one ever got into weather forecasting because it was easy.
So El Niño implies a weak hurricane season, while the current water temperature situation in the Atlantic implies an extremely active season. This is a tug of war and a half, and one of the most fascinating seasonal forecasting challenges I’ve ever seen. Tomorrow we’ll talk about some risks and tie a ribbon on all this.
Good morning. Eric here, and I’m thrilled to extend my welcome to readers of The Eyewall. Matt has been doing a fantastic job so far, and the response we’ve received to the site has been great. Thank you for reading, and telling your friends and families in other states vulnerable to tropical weather. In today’s post we’ll talk about the lack of activity right now, and the GFS model’s propensity to develop spurious storms. Matt also continues his look at what to expect from the 2023 hurricane season, overall.
One-sentence summary
No meaningful tropical development is expected over the next week or so, though a system near the Azores Islands has a very low chance to briefly become something before the weekend.
“Oscar” is swirling off the coast of Africa and Spain. (EUMETSAT)
Happening now
Beyond the Azores system, nothing is happening now. Just a word on that storm, however, which is interesting to US readers in the sense that it allows us to talk about something relatively new. For the last eight years several European countries have started naming “windstorms,” and like we have a hurricane season they have a windstorm season. In this case, the Azores storm is named “Oscar,” and it could have impacts on the Canary Islands later this week. Some weather warnings are in place.
The medium range (days 6-10): Still quiet
If we look at the 10-day forecasts from the major global models, there is still really nothing to shake a stick at. This is perfectly normal for the early part of June.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): No changes in thinking
There is life in fantasyland, however. In about 11 days from now, the GFS model develops a tropical low in the Caribbean Sea, and then drags a fairly potent looking storm into the Gulf of Mexico by about day 14 or 15. There are two reasons why this system is likely spurious. First of all, we commonly see these kinds of far-out tropical systems in the GFS model at this time of year. And secondly, when we look for support for this idea in the ensembles, it’s just not there.
Oh look, the GFS has manufactured a hurricane at <checks notes> day 15 of its current run. (Weather Bell)
Nevertheless, I would expect to see some chatter about this possibility over the next few days, as excitable observers look at the GFS model and say, “Oh look, a hurricane is going to hit Texas on June 23!” I mean, anything is possible, right? But it’s not something I’d lose any sleep over. We’re certain to face much more credible threats later this summer, so save your angst for something that’s more likely to be real.
The 2023 seasonal outlook Part 2: El Niño
When you hear the phrase “El Niño,” we would assume that most Gen X’ers, Xennials, and geriatric millennials think of Chris Farley and his 1997 take on the weather event on Saturday Night Live. Truthfully, that clip has aged pretty well. They got the gist of things correct.
What is El Niño? By definition, it is a periodic warming of the water around the Equator in the Pacific Ocean, west of Peru to the central Pacific, near the Dateline. In reality, it’s a pretty complicated phenomenon involving both the ocean and the atmosphere, and because of where it unfolds, it sends ripple effects around the world in the form of changes to weather patterns. You can read more about the “what” behind El Niño here, but we’re going to focus on how it impacts hurricane season.
How does El Niño impact the tropical Atlantic? What tends to happen during El Niño events is an uptick in tropical activity in the Pacific Ocean. With more warm water available in the tropics, with more thunderstorm activity spreading east from the Western Pacific, and with generally lower wind shear, the Pacific tends to be the action center during hurricane seasons with El Niño.
During El Niño events, there is usually more wind shear over the Atlantic basin due to the reshuffling of the upper level pattern as warm water expands east across the Pacific Ocean. Hurricanes do not like wind shear. (NOAA)
Because the structure of the upper atmospheric pattern changes when that happens, a situation develops where there is generally a mean ridge of high pressure (calm conditions) over the subtropical Pacific. With the jet stream, what goes up usually must come down, and that typically produces a mean trough (unsettled conditions) over the Caribbean and southwest Atlantic. Hurricanes like calm conditions in the upper atmosphere. That means reduced wind shear. So during an El Niño, the Pacific side usually has less wind shear than usual, while the Atlantic side usually has more of it, limiting the amount of hurricanes that form.
As a “for instance,” if we took the 10 strongest Oceanic Niño Index values (the statistically strongest summertime El Niño events) for the 3-month period of July through September going back to 1950, those hurricane seasons averaged 9 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane, well shy of the 30 year average of 14, 7, and 3 respectively. Of course, within those 10 “quiet seasons” we had a handful of memorable storms: Betsy in 1965, Agnes in 1972, Joaquin in 2015, Audrey in 1957, Flora in 1963, Charlie in 1951, and Isidore and Lili in 2002. It only takes one! But the takeaway here is that El Niño does tend to favor less busy Atlantic seasons.
What’s El Niño doing right now? Well, we’re technically not yet in El Niño. There are certain criteria that need to be met over the course a few months. However, we’re all but officially there. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology this week declared an El Niño Alert, giving at least a 70 percent chance that it will happen. NOAA has us in an El Niño watch. A look at a sea surface temperature anomaly map clearly shows that the Pacific is warm.
If you look across the Equator at the Pacific Ocean west of South America you can see above normal water temperatures dominating the region, indicating development of an El Niño is likely underway. (NOAA)
Most of the global oceans are warm right now, but the El Niño certainly stands out. You can see this in an even more telling manner by looking under the surface of the ocean across the Equatorial Pacific.
Click to enlarge this animation from April through late last week, which is looking at water temperature anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific from 80°W longitude, across the Dateline to 120°E longitude, or basically from South America to Oceania. The surface is the top of the graph, and the bottom of the graph is 450 meters (~1,500 feet) below. That’s a lot of warm water. (NOAA)
There is nothing but warmer than normal water from the surface down about 700 feet across the Equatorial Pacific. Basically, El Niño is just about here, and it would be safe to assume that we will have one in place for the majority of hurricane season. Thus, when making the seasonal hurricane outlook, the first key point for 2023 is El Niño, so this should likely act against a busy season.
But these things are complicated, and while El Niño certainly gives us optimism that the season may be a bit more subdued than normal, that map of global water temperature anomalies above shows a big problem in the Atlantic. We’ll discuss that in more detail tomorrow.
