As we went through the Fourth of July holiday all of the fireworks were in the sky, rather than in the tropics.
Happening now: Nothing in the Atlantic
The Atlantic remains quiet, and it should stay that way for at least the remainder of this week if not beyond.
The Eastern Pacific has also quieted down with the dissipation of two hurricanes, Adrian and Beatriz, in recent days. The potential remains for some additional development this week to the south of the Western coast of Mexico, but nothing that appears to be an imminent threat to land. This is something we’ll be tracking later this week, however.
I also want to call attention to an excellent post published this week on Michael Lowry’s Substack that is tracking the influence of El Niño on Atlantic hurricane activity so far. This summer we’ve seen a strong El Niño develop in the tropical Pacific, where sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal. Typically this pattern is associated with higher wind shear in the Atlantic. The bottom line is that wind shear does appear to be ramping up across the Atlantic basin as we get deeper into July, and this is likely to tamp down on tropical activity at least into the near term.
I am hopeful that this wind shear will generally persist into August and September, when it would counteract the effect of extremely warm seas in the Atlantic that will otherwise be favorable to tropical storm activity.
The medium-range (days 6-10): Moisture but no swirls
Much of the immediate Gulf coast will see rain showers this week as tropical moisture surges inland, but this low pressure is unlikely to develop into anything of note. Another area to watch, potentially, is the southern extremity of the Caribbean Sea. But this is nothing to get too excited about, either.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): All remains quiet
As of now, there doesn’t seem to be anything of note in the Atlantic basin for the day 10 or later period. July often sees a lull in activity, and that appears to be what is happening now. I’m happy to have it.