July 5, 2023 Outlook: It’s all quiet on the Western front, and mostly so on the Eastern Front

One-sentence summary

As we went through the Fourth of July holiday all of the fireworks were in the sky, rather than in the tropics.

Happening now: Nothing in the Atlantic

The Atlantic remains quiet, and it should stay that way for at least the remainder of this week if not beyond.

The Eastern Pacific has also quieted down with the dissipation of two hurricanes, Adrian and Beatriz, in recent days. The potential remains for some additional development this week to the south of the Western coast of Mexico, but nothing that appears to be an imminent threat to land. This is something we’ll be tracking later this week, however.

Tropical Outlook for the Eastern Pacific Basin over the next seven days. (National Hurricane Center)

I also want to call attention to an excellent post published this week on Michael Lowry’s Substack that is tracking the influence of El Niño on Atlantic hurricane activity so far. This summer we’ve seen a strong El Niño develop in the tropical Pacific, where sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal. Typically this pattern is associated with higher wind shear in the Atlantic. The bottom line is that wind shear does appear to be ramping up across the Atlantic basin as we get deeper into July, and this is likely to tamp down on tropical activity at least into the near term.

Current wind shear levels in the Atlantic. (CIMSS/The Eyewall)

I am hopeful that this wind shear will generally persist into August and September, when it would counteract the effect of extremely warm seas in the Atlantic that will otherwise be favorable to tropical storm activity.

The medium-range (days 6-10): Moisture but no swirls

Much of the immediate Gulf coast will see rain showers this week as tropical moisture surges inland, but this low pressure is unlikely to develop into anything of note. Another area to watch, potentially, is the southern extremity of the Caribbean Sea. But this is nothing to get too excited about, either.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): All remains quiet

As of now, there doesn’t seem to be anything of note in the Atlantic basin for the day 10 or later period. July often sees a lull in activity, and that appears to be what is happening now. I’m happy to have it.

3 thoughts on “July 5, 2023 Outlook: It’s all quiet on the Western front, and mostly so on the Eastern Front”

  1. Great news about the shear. Been very concerned about those Gulf temperatures – I know they need heat release but that could come at a high cost 🌊

    And, that is a great article on El Niño 😀

    Thanks 🌻

  2. There is blob of storms sitting out over the Southern Gulf of Mexico. I dont beelive it is anything at this point but maybe it will develop? I didnt see any mention of it here so I am guessing it is of no concern.

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