The majority of the tropical Atlantic will remain fairly quiet, however it appears increasingly possible that a tropical system could form several hundred miles east of Bermuda during the next week.
Happening Now: No worries for most
In the Atlantic this week all eyes are, improbably, on an area of low pressure located about 500 miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. As Matt pointed out on Tuesday, historically this is a very unlikely place for a tropical system to form in mid-July. But as we’ll discuss a bit more below, this is not a normal year. The seas in the Central Atlantic Ocean are fairly warm for this time of year.
All eyes, for now, are on the Central Atlantic Ocean. (NOAA)
The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next seven days before it would likely fizzle out, moving further north into waters less favorable for development. Given that this system almost certainly will remain out at sea, it should ultimately be of little concern to to us in terms of impacts. Unless you’re a fish. Or run a shipping company.
The medium range (days 6 to 10): Let’s talk about the Gulf of Mexico
Beyond the system in the Central Atlantic, there’s not much to say in terms of activity. But that’s perfectly normal for mid-July, when there’s often a lull in the tropics. However, I do think the warm water that’s allowing the Central Atlantic system to form offers us a cautionary tale.
If we turn our gaze to the Gulf of Mexico, we see very high sea surface temperatures. If you live anywhere along the coast, from Brownsville, Texas to Miami, Florida, you’ve probably noticed the very warm nights this summer. This is due, in part, to temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico that are running from 1 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. This onshore flow adds to the overall mugginess of the air.
Sea surface temperature anomaly in the Gulf of Mexico. (University of Miami)
This is not a concern now for tropical activity, as wind shear remains fairly robust across the Gulf, inhibiting storm formation. But it will become a significant concern as we get into August and September, when wind shear tends to relax a bit. I’m not making any concrete predictions here, but with sea surface temperatures this warm, if tropical systems do form they will have the potential to become very strong, very quickly.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Still quiet
Fortunately, there remains no sign of anything notable in the extended range right now. This is likely to change as we get toward the end of July and into August, but for now things are quiet.
The majority of the Atlantic will remain fairly quiet, but the far north may see a weak system develop by the weekend that could gradually drift toward the Azores.
Happening Now: No worries for most
The Atlantic has some action out there today, but none of the systems at this point looks like a serious threat, and certainly nothing that would threaten any land. There’s a tropical wave in the islands today, bringing some showers and storms. A rather robust wave just emerged off Africa, but it’s already losing some steam.
Several tropical waves and areas of storminess are present across the Atlantic, but the only area that could plausibly develop is near Bermuda and moving east. (College of DuPage)
But the main system we’re watching will come to fruition in the medium range, so we’ll get into that below.
All in all, things are currently quiet from an impacts standpoint.
The medium range (days 6 to 10): Can the North Atlantic do it?
When we look at formation points of northern Atlantic storms throughout history between July 11th and July 20th, one area we generally can usually rule out for storm origin is east of about 55°W longitude. We’re going to be watching exactly that area this week and weekend for potential development.
Click to enlarge the map of storm origin points between July 11th and 20th since the 1800s. The area we are watching for development would be an extreme north and east outlier. (NOAA)
The National Hurricane Center has a 50 percent chance of development over the next week as of this writing. Curious and puzzling are words that come to mind, but when the Atlantic is as warm as it is, I guess this should not come as a shock. Whatever the case, we are watching this disturbance east of Bermuda in particular that will slide eastward over the next few days.
A more zoomed in look at the disturbance in the North Atlantic and its proximity to the Azores and Bermuda. It has about a 50 percent chance of developing over the next several days. (Weathernerds.org)
We can say a couple things about this system, should it develop. First, from the spaghetti plot below, which shows all the European ensemble members, 51 of them run with different tweaks in their starting points (to generate a more realistic spread of potential outcomes), we get a broadly north then east-moving system for several days. The map stops at day 7, and that’s a pretty wide dispersion of outcomes. In time, there’s also some chance the system meanders as far as the Azores, which could lead to eventual impacts there, though I’m not ruling that in just yet. But a fairly broad spectrum of potential track outcomes leads to above average uncertainty over the next 5 to 7 days.
The “spread” in potential outcomes from this system as it meanders around the North Atlantic over the next week or so is rather high, with a lot of possibilities on the table, virtually none a serious threat to land though. (Weathernerds.org)
The other thing you can say is that most modeling does keep this system on the lower end of the intensity spectrum. Wind shear and relatively “cooler” water should eventually take a toll on whatever this is and cap it at a reasonably manageable intensity. Again, if it develops.
A lot of ifs here, but it’s something. Certainly unusual and a curiosity. Thankfully it remains relatively away from land impacts. We’ll see how this goes in the days ahead.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Quiet
No sign of anything menacing us in the extended range right now. Modeling continues to non-specifically hint at some more activity in this timeframe, but there’s nothing we can hang our hats on and focus on showing up out there.
While tropical development is not expected over the next week or so, there are a couple features to keep tabs on in the Atlantic.
Happening now: Watching the Atlantic
After the weekend, we start the second week of July off with a couple items of note in the Atlantic. Just to be clear here, we aren’t necessarily expecting anything important to come from this, but given the warm ocean waters, it’s not the worst idea in the world to keep an eye on things.
Let’s start with the current picture of dust and disturbances.
A couple disturbances under the dust plume in the Atlantic are worth watching but not expected to develop, while a more robust disturbance in the far north Atlantic may well develop. (University of Wisconsin)
You can see a pretty healthy area of dust stretching across the Atlantic from Africa to the Caribbean islands. Surely not the most impressive we’ve ever seen, but it’s definitely there. Anyway, most of the dust stretches across 20°N latitude until you get close to the Caribbean. Underneath that band of dust is a tropical wave. This has shown flashes of coherence through the weekend, and the European ensemble model in particular has at times latched onto this becoming A Thing over the next few days. Frankly, it’s hardly impressive looking today, likely battling some of the dust on its periphery and running into a wall of shear on its west side.
The disturbance in question is in the center of the image above, several hundred miles east of the Caribbean. It does not look too well organized today.
Modeling has gotten a good deal less excitable about this wave, so I don’t think it merits close watching, but we’ll see how it goes over the next day or two.
The medium range (days 6 to 10): Watching the far north Atlantic
Outside of that disturbance above, we had mentioned last week that the far north Atlantic might see some noise this week. Indeed, we have a pair of disturbances sitting up there. An actual surface low should develop in the coming days from the smaller area of storms at left on the image below (exiting Bermuda) and we may see this area become a development one.
A pair of pretty robust disturbances in the North Atlantic (a large one in the middle and a second one near Bermuda at left) bears some watching with the Hurricane Center assigning a 30 percent chance of development over the next few days. (Weathernerds.org)
The National Hurricane Center is assigning about 30% odds for that to occur. If it does happen, the system would likely meander somewhat incoherently, as if it were 2 AM and last call around the North Atlantic generally toward the Azores over time. We’ll see if it become a threat to those islands. For now, we’ll say this is not a big deal but does bear a little watching.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Mostly quiet
The good news is that despite the slight uptick in “noise” today, the day 10+ period does not look that interesting right now. Not to say that things will not change, but at this point, I’m not seeing much of anything that warrants a lot of our attention.
Sidebar: New England flooding
Flooding in New England is not uncommon. The region has a long history of flooding events, often with remnant tropical systems. But what is expected today, particularly without the involvement of a tropical system is troubling. That region is in line for some serious rain and flooding today, as a pipeline of moisture extends from the warm Gulf up through the warm Atlantic into New England.
The purple area is a high risk area for excessive rainfall, a deleniation that the Weather Prediction Center only uses a handful of times each year. It usually correlates to serious flooding issues, and today that will focus on northwestern Vermont and northeast New York, including the Burlington and Plattsburgh areas. (Pivotal Weather)
The Weather Prediction Center has parts of northern New York and Vermont in their rare “high risk” category for excessive rainfall, which usually correlates strongly to bad outcomes. Significant to catastrophic flooding is expected in parts of New England and New York today because of this setup. Rainfall warnings extend into Quebec as well.
It’s also a good opportunity for us to look at sea-surface temperature anomalies and see just how warm things are right now.
Sea surface temperature anomalies remain just insanely warm across the entire Atlantic Basin, with few exceptions, one reason to not write off the hurricane season due to El Niño. (Weather Bell)
There is hardly any cooler than normal water to be found anywhere in the Atlantic, Gulf, or Caribbean. This is one reason why it’s tough to forecast a slow hurricane season. At any rate, our thoughts are with the folks in New England that will be dealing with a very rough go of it today.
The Atlantic remains quiet, with no action expected over the next 7 to 10 days, while the Pacific should see a bit of activity ahead.
Happening now: Remaining quiet
Things remain quiet across the tropics this morning.
A disturbance in the western Gulf is mostly ashore now, while a weak wave approaches the Lesser Antilles, though it will bring showers and storms there.
We still have disorganized disturbed weather in the western Gulf, but it is basically ashore at this point. The only other feature that stands out is a wave approaching the Lesser Antilles. This should bring showers and storms there, but there is no real risk of development. Another disturbance about halfway across the Atlantic may have a narrow window to develop next week. Short of that, there’s not much doing.
The medium-range (days 6 to 10): Still calm!
All remains quiet, though we expect a system or two to form in the near and medium term in the Pacific. Nothing that is expected to impact land, however.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Likely quiet a bit longer
We still do not see any items of note on any of the modeling we use looking out farther in time. The Atlantic may begin to get a bit less hostile toward tropical systems by late month, but as of now, there are no consequences of that potential showing up out there.
Housekeeping!
A kinder, gentler version of housekeeping than the scene in “Tommy Boy” to close out today. Let’s hop through some things.
Seasonal outlook
The fine folks at Colorado State University released their second to last seasonal update for the 2023 Atlantic season yesterday. Somewhat surprisingly, it increased the seasonal totals, by 3 storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane, and most impressively 35 Accumulated cyclone energy units (a very consequential increase).
Colorado State University’s seasonal outlook is calling for another 14 storms this year, giving us 18 total when all is said and done. (Colorado State University)
Not that we expected them to cut their numbers or anything, but this was a bit of an aggressive increase. If you read between the lines, the battle between warm sea-surface temperatures and El Niño makes their outlook almost a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation. While we feel that this is a bit of a bold forecast, there is a conceivable path there — but we would need El Niño to do something unprecedented in our history, which is to substantially reduce its impacts on the Atlantic. Another possible route to an active season? More activity in the open Atlantic, where the water is way warmer than normal and El Niño’s influence is a little less.
Whatever the case, we are statistically only about 3 percent of the way through hurricane season, when using ACE as a metric. So it is far too soon to write any seasonal outcome off.
July hurricane nuggets
When was the last July hurricane in the Atlantic? You have to go all the way back to 2021 to find one. Elsa, if you may remember due to its memorable name, was the last July hurricane in the Atlantic.
Hurricane Elsa in 2021 passed near Barbados, peaked as a hurricane in the Caribbean, and then made landfall in Cuba before Florida 2 days later. (NOAA)
It never made landfall as a hurricane but still caused about $1 billion in damage. The last landfalling hurricane in July was Hurricane Isaias, which came ashore in Brunswick County, NC and managed to cause over $5 billion in damage across the Caribbean, Bahamas, up the U.S. east coast, and in Canada.
The strongest observed July hurricane was Emily in the frenetic season of 2005. Emily became a category 5 hurricane southwest of Jamaica. It made one landfall in the Yucatan near Tulum as a category 4 storm and another in Tamaulipas as a category 3 storm.
So, yes, storms do happen in July and they can be memorable!
Social media
Without getting into the weeds on all this, we recognize that the social media landscape is ever-changing and seems to be undergoing some considerable upheaval right now. We encourage you to sign up for our email updates to the right (desktop) or by scrolling alllllll the way down (on mobile), so you never miss a post. But, if you do prefer using social media, we currently have numerous accounts established, and we’ll reassess our strategies as the landscape further evolves.
On almost all of these, we should be “theeyewallwx” if that makes your life easier.
Please keep in mind…this is a *lot* for us to keep up with, so we will likely be making some cuts once the dust settles, hopefully within the next 6 months. But for now, we’ll do our best to keep up with all these platforms to reach you where you are.
