The Eyewall

One-sentence summary

The Atlantic looks to remain mostly quiet, while the Pacific heats up over the next week or so.

Happening now: Dust in the wind

The Atlantic remains under the influence of a good bit of dust. Honestly, this doesn’t look terribly impressive. But it is more than we’ve had for much of the nascent season to date.

Dust will move into the Caribbean into the weekend. It may eventually make it to portions of far South Florida and the Gulf by Monday or Tuesday and then eventually the northern Gulf Coast later next week. Dust should be at its worst in the Caribbean before thinning out as it comes west. Dust will continue to impact most of the Caribbean islands well into next week, with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola really seeing a fair bit in the air. Additional dust may emerge off Africa later next week.

Aside from the dust, the Atlantic remains quiet, with just an area of thunderstorms south of Bermuda that has a very low probability of developing. No significant impacts are currently expected on the island.

Pacific

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Americas, the Pacific is heating up.

Hurricane Adrian strengthened, as expected yesterday. It’s now a category 1 hurricane with 85 mph maximum sustained winds. It is headed out to sea and will not impact land as it weakens in the coming days.

Behind Adrian, Tropical Depression Two-E developed late yesterday. It is expected to graze the coast of Mexico as it moves northwest. As a result, tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for the west coast of Mexico from north of Manzanillo southeast to Punta Maldonado.

The exact center may maneuver some over the coming day or two, which could impact just how close this gets to the coast of Mexico, but it will probably become a strong tropical storm or hurricane as long as it stays over the water. However, it will run out of runway for strengthening by the end of the weekend and should weaken before getting to Cabo.

There may be a third system sometime later next week as well. As you’d expect in an El Niño year, the Pacific should be revving up some.

The medium-range (days 6-10): Nothing of note

All looks quiet for now in the medium range. If there is some place to watch, it would be the Gulf of Mexico, as some tropical moisture may work in there next week. As of now, it seems highly unlikely that anything of note would come of that, but as always, we’ll keep tabs on things.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Not much to worry over!

At risk of sounding like a broken record, the longer-range looks quiet right now as well. If we want to dig, I do see some ensemble members doing some funky things in the far north Atlantic, away from any land. Remember, we have operational models, which are single, deterministic model runs, and ensemble models, which are those models tweaked a little bit and run 30 to 50 different times to give us a spread of possible outcomes. The European model just underwent a significant upgrade in the ensemble model resolution that should improve its performance in tropical systems. We’ll be watching that intently this season. Anyway, there are some ensemble members on both the American (GFS) and European models that try to form something between Atlantic Canada and Bermuda late, but other than that, we see nothing of note out there in fantasyland.

More tomorrow!

One-sentence summary

The Atlantic is beginning to ease into more of a typical, somewhat quieter pattern for now, while the Pacific wakes up from slumber.

Happening now: Yo Adrian!

Not a whole lot to discuss in the Atlantic today, as shear and dust dominate things. Cindy’s remnants are done. We’re now watching a second disturbance east of there that has a very low chance at development. The chances of that have fallen since the weekend though.

We’re not always going to talk about the Pacific, but hey, it’s the first storm of the season for that basin, so let’s take a look at Adrian.

Adrian has 65 mph winds, and it is in an environment conducive for more intensification. The storm is likely to push west over the next several days, strengthening into a hurricane later today. By later this weekend, it will likely begin to weaken over the open Pacific, as it encounters more wind shear and cooler waters.

So, no harm no foul. Behind Adrian, there is a second system that has high odds of developing in the coming days. That would acquire the name Beatriz. It’s been a slow start in the Pacific this season, which is very abnormal for an El Niño year. With the Atlantic calming and the Pacific picking up, this is more of what we’d expect in late June and early July.

The medium-range (days 6-10): Noise but no substance

The medium-range period looks a bit more interesting in that there should be a bit more thunderstorm activity in the Gulf and Caribbean next week. However, that seems unlikely (at this point) to translate into any meaningful development. Wind shear looks to be a bit above average most of next week in the key areas where moisture will begin to pool. So, given that, probably a period where the chance of development is not zero — but it’s fairly close to zero.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Nothing of note in the Atlantic

The good news is that we aren’t seeing a whole lot of signal for organization to anything late. The GFS operational model continues periodically throwing a spurious storm our way in the Gulf or Caribbean, but it has been doing that off and on for weeks now. So, we’ll anticipate a quiet period into mid-July for now!

One-sentence summary

Cindy’s remnants will continue to at least have a fighting chance to redevelop into a system east of Bermuda, and it may bring some rain to Atlantic Canada, but other than that, things look quiet.

Happening now: Cindy’s remnants still have a long way to go

The remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy are swirling out over the open Atlantic this morning.

There’s not a lot of organization to this, even though there is plenty of thunderstorm activity. Cindy’s remnants remain under about 30 to 50 knots of wind shear, which really needs to settle back for Cindy to have much chance at regenerating. That may be exactly what happens by tomorrow. There is no guarantee that Cindy will redevelop even if these winds relax, but there’s at least a chance. A fairly notable split exists in the modeling with the European model bringing the potential regenerating Cindy near Bermuda and then direct into Nova Scotia by the weekend. The GFS (American) model takes a more circuitous and much slower route there. In either case, any impacts to Bermuda or Atlantic Canada look relatively modest at worst, with some showers and a breeze. So, a good forecast for folks there to monitor for plans, but probably nothing to get too worked up about.

Aside from Cindy’s remnants, the only thing to watch may be dust, which should arrive in the Caribbean late this week.

This will likely tinge the skies over the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and eventually Hispaniola and Cuba into the weekend with dust. This may impact far South Florida or the Gulf Coast as well next week to a lesser extent.

The medium-range (days 6-10): Some showers but probably nothing more

Both our operational models (single-run, deterministic modeling) and our ensemble models (models run multiple times with slight tweaks each time to generate more possible realistic outcomes) are fairly quiet in the medium-range. They do show some showers or maybe a tropical wave moving into the Caribbean next week, but nothing that is expected to develop.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Quiet it seems

As of today, I don’t see anything out in the modeling beyond day 10 that concerns me. Certainly, there is no ensemble support for anything of note. Maybe we’re settling into a more typical July for now.

One-sentence summary

Tropical Storm Cindy degenerated into an open wave yesterday, but there is at least a little chance the storm tries to give it another go near Bermuda on its way out to sea.

Happening now: Cindy slumps

Cindy was downgraded to an open wave last night, ending the current chapter of the storm. You can still see the remnant circulation this morning, virtually achieving “naked swirl” status.

That said, there is some chance we are not done with Cindy just yet. The remnants are in a very high shear environment right now, so that’s what has helped shred it up. But as it tracks northwest, that shear may relax some, allowing for the system to regenerate thunderstorms and possibly reorganize. Why does this even matter over the open Atlantic, you ask? Because this would happen not very far from Bermuda. Not that we’re expecting a major storm for Bermuda. But it at least keeps Cindy alive and worth discussing over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center is assigning a 30 percent chance that this occurs.

Whatever the case, seeing a storm in this part of the Atlantic in June remains odd and speaks to just how warm the waters are. We will keep an eye on this as it meanders north, but again for Bermuda, while it’s good to keep tabs on things, it’s not too serious a threat.

The medium-range (days 6-10): Caribbean incoherence

I would expect to see some more storms (Editor’s note: Disorganized showers & thunderstorms, not organized storms!) developing in the Caribbean as we head toward next week. Right now, it does not appear anything meaningful is going to come of it, but we will see showers and storms likely recharging in parts of the Caribbean. There will likely be dust and wind shear around to keep a lid on any sort of development. But that won’t stop some models from showing spuriously strong systems in the Gulf or Caribbean at times. For now, nothing to worry about.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): The GFS doing it again

As noted above, the GFS continues to fire off systems with a lack of any real consistency in terms of time or place, much as it did earlier the month. With the Caribbean likely to see some moisture around this time, you always have to at least watch. But a lack of any real meaningful ensemble support from models (meaning when we run the models 30 to 50 different times we get no real consistent outcomes) leads me to believe we won’t see anything too big here. More tomorrow!