Idalia is now a hurricane and still on track to impact the Big Bend region of Florida as a major hurricane Wednesday morning

One-sentence summary

Hurricane Idalia is expected to rapidly intensify today and tonight and come ashore somewhere in the Big Bend area of Florida as a major hurricane tomorrow, producing extremely dangerous storm surge, in addition to strong winds and heavy rain well away from the center.

Hurricane Idalia is expected to come ashore on Wednesday morning near the Big Bend of Florida as a major hurricane. (NOAA NHC)

Hurricane Idalia

The bottom line on Idalia is that it is expected to come ashore near the Florida Big Bend as a major hurricane, without much modern precedent in this area. This will lead to severe wind and potentially catastrophic storm surge in many communities in this region. Preparations need to finished quickly today, and advice of local officials should be heeded.

What’s changed overnight?

The only notable change overnight (besides becoming a hurricane) may be that model forecasts have nudged the landfall point a little to the west. This further increases the odds of a historic surge event and hurricane impact in the Big Bend. There were no serious changes to watches or warnings, and you can see that Hurricane Warnings are posted from Manatee County north through coastal Franklin County in the Panhandle, as well as inland along and west of I-75. Tropical Storm Warnings are posted for the East Coast from Brevard County north past Jacksonville and into coastal Georgia just past St. Simons Island, extending inland across much of southeast Georgia.

The watch and warning situation as of 7 AM ET Tuesday. (Pivotal Weather)

Idalia’s track to Florida

Hurricane Idalia is expected to track steadily north/north-northeast today and tonight. The exact landfall point remains a bit fuzzy, but the overnight shift west is somewhat notable. There is a bit more risk in parts of Apalachee Bay than there perhaps seemed yesterday. But generally speaking, the Big Bend into Apalachee Bay seems most likely for landfall.

Idalia is getting its act together as it moves over exceptionally warm water southwest of Florida, and it will likely begin to look more like a classic hurricane through the day today. (weathernerds.org)

Idalia’s storm surge

With the track where it is, there have only been minor adjustments to the storm surge forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

Storm surge is still expected to be life-threatening and potential catastrophic for the Big Bend area in Florida. (NOAA NHC)

At this point, from Tampa south, most of the surge forecast is now baked in. North of Tampa, the bullseye of surge may shift a bit with landfall, closer to Aucilla River and in Apalachee Bay with a shift west in track, or just a bit down coast toward Homosassa with a little eastward shift. But in general, this morning is the time to finalize preparations for as much as 8 to 12 feet of water in the Big Bend and east side of Apalachee Bay.

The tidal forecast for Charleston, SC shows “major” flood levels being reached on Wednesday evening. (NOAA)

On the East Coast, we continue to see forecasts of about 2 to 4 feet of surge for Georgia and South Carolina south of the Santee River. For Charleston, there could be “major” flooding levels hit with this during Wednesday evening’s tide cycle.

Idalia’s wind

The wind forecast for Idalia brings it ashore as at least a 120 mph category 3 hurricane. There is some chance it could be stronger than that. Major hurricane force winds will be confined to a small area near the center as it comes ashore. Hurricane-force and tropical storm-force winds will extend out rather far from the center, especially to the east.

The current hurricane wind threat is highest in the Big Bend, with hurricane-force winds possible near Gainesville and as far inland as Valdosta, GA. Tallahassee should see at least hurricane-force gusts. (NOAA)

The primary wind damage risk will be in the purple shaded region above in the Big Bend. Tallahassee, Valdosta, and Gainesville into the extreme coastal northern fringes of the Tampa metro may see hurricane-force winds as well. Those winds may also occur on the immediate Georgia coast as well. Tropical storm-force winds will include much of Tampa and Jacksonville up toward Savannah and farther up coast into South Carolina. Power outages are likely for a chunk of north Florida, south Georgia, and coastal South Carolina.

Anywhere from 6 to 10 inches of rain will be possible in the hardest hit areas along Idalia’s track, leading to potential flash flooding. (NOAA NHC)

Idalia’s Rain

We continue to view rain as more of a secondary hazard from Idalia, as its forward speed *should* allow for some mitigation of outcomes there. Still, you could see as much as 6 to 10 inches of rain in spots, and in addition to causing localized flash flooding, this could exacerbate tidal flooding along the immediate coast or bays. Flood Watches are posted in many spots and may expand north through the day today. We’ll hone in some more on this later.

Idalia’s exit and distant future

What happens after Idalia exits the U.S. coast? That’s a great question that we just don’t have a great answer to right now.

Truly, we aren’t really sure what will happen to Idalia after it moves back offshore of the Southeast this weekend. We need some time to sort this out, but no one needs to worry at this time. (Weathernerds.org)

The pattern that will steer Idalia becomes more convoluted this weekend once it moves offshore of the Southeast. From there, models are, for lack of a better term, confused about where it will go or if it will even maintain identity at that point. The bottom line here is that no one needs to currently worry about a second act from Idalia, but we’ll keep tabs on this in the coming days to see what, if anything happens.

Hurricane Franklin

Franklin became a textbook category 4 hurricane yesterday, and it’s producing rough surf and dangerous rip currents in Bermuda and along the Eastern U.S.

Hurricane Franklin is expected to zip out to sea over the next 5 to 6 days, and it will probably eventually be absorbed into a storm over Greenland. (NOAA NHC)

Franklin is going to steadily head out to sea over the next 5 days, and it should eventually get drawn back north and west, absorbed into a high latitude storm over Greenland.

Elsewhere

Old Invest 92L has a shot at developing into a weak system east of Franklin’s track. A new wave emerging off Africa has about a 70 percent chance of development over the next week as it heads out to sea. No threats to land are seen beyond Idalia over the next 7 to 10 days.

Idalia on the verge of becoming a hurricane with its sights set on Florida’s Big Bend region

One-sentence summary

Final preparations in advance of expected major hurricane Idalia should be made by tomorrow morning on the Florida coast, as the storm’s impacts will begin spreading that way by Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Idalia is on the cusp of becoming a hurricane this evening as it begins to lift into the Gulf of Mexico. (NOAA NHC)

Idalia right now

Idalia has been battling some shear today that has held it back a bit in terms of significanr intensification and organization. To be clear, this was expected, and even in the face of this Idalia has held its own and added some lower pressure and stronger wind. As shear moves around a bit tonight and tomorrow and Idalia begins to advance northward, it should begin the process of rapid intensification, just in time for its arrival in Florida. The general rule of thumb in recent years has been that if anything can go wrong in the Gulf of Mexico, it will, and Idalia may add to that list. Let’s focus on impacts today.

Idalia has not moved a whole heck of a lot today, sitting generally just southwest of the western tip of Cuba.

A satellite loop shows some significant thunderstorms near and just south of the center of Idalia in the pink and purple hues. Idalia is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Florida is at the top-center of this loop. (Weathernerds.org)

Max winds are currently 70 mph, and Idalia should become a hurricane tonight. Hurricane warnings are in effect for western Cuba. As noted above, wind shear has inhibited Idalia a bit to this point, but we expect that to loosen up some tonight and tomorrow.

Forecast track & uncertainties

Idalia will broadly come north-northeast toward the Big Bend of Florida. There’s still a good deal of uncertainty on the exact landfall point. Because of the angle of approach from Idalia and the unique geography of Florida, a slight shift in track could yield a decent shift in surge impacts. As we’ll note below, the impacts beyond surge should be relatively baked in now for most spots, with a few exceptions.

You can see the ensemble spread here from the European model is still considerable, with a handful of ensemble members close to Tampa and many more spread across the Big Bend, as well as a couple as far west as Apalachicola. Recall, the Euro ensemble consists of 51 model runs “tweaked” at initialization slightly to produce some goal posts for outcomes. We need this in tropical situations.

In terms of wind and rain, the forecast will be fairly straightforward regardless of track. The exceptions to this will be the core maximum winds that extend out 10 to 20 miles from the center. We still need to fine tune that. But a broad swath of tropical storm or even hurricane force winds will be possible along much of the west coast of Florida and a bit inland from there.

The storm surge forecast for maximum potential water above ground level shows as much as 8 to 12 feet of surge possible from Chassahowitzka around the Big Bend to the Aucilla River. This is contingent on the exact track of Idalia, with these values shifting some based on the precise landfall point. (NOAA NHC)

In terms of storm surge, things get a lot trickier. As we saw with Ian last year, the track south of Tampa led to catastrophic surge in Fort Myers and an empty Tampa Bay. Initial forecasts were calling for significant surge flooding in Tampa. We will have to watch the exact track of Idalia closely to determine exactly where the worst surge occurs and where the inflection point between onshore and offshore winds occurs. But in general, significant, damaging, dangerous storm surge is likely in the Big Bend and along the Nature Coast south to near Tampa Bay. Surge impacts in Tampa should be considerable but not quite as serious as farther north. And surge impacts south of Tampa will be modest but notable. Moderate surge is possible on the South Carolina and Georgia coasts as well into Wednesday.

It cannot be overstated that everyone from Apalachee Bay to Sarasota needs to prepare for the reasonable worst case scenario surge, understanding that if the track shifts, conditions could get worse or better depending on that exact track. There will be some element of overpreparation in some communities, which is an outcome you need to accept. Wind is a concern with this storm, rainfall a secondary concern. Surge? The biggest concern I have with this thing. Please take it very, very seriously. There is no modern analog to this storm in the Big Bend, and the surge impacts are likely to be dire.

Intensity

The current National Hurricane Center forecast brings Idalia ashore as a major, category 3 hurricane with maximum winds of 120 mph. We could see a slightly stronger storm (or even a weaker storm!) depending on the track and how efficiently Idalia can undergo its expected rapid intensification.

The probability of hurricane-force winds along the path of Idalia show potential as far inland as Orlando and Ocala and as far west as Tallahassee still. Tropical storm winds are likely in these areas and capable of causing damage and knocking out power. (NOAA NHC)

For folks along the coast from Sarasota north, expect hurricane force gusts possible and sustained tropical storm force winds. Inland, including the west side of Orlando will see tropical storm force wind gusts. The core hurricane conditions will follow near and east of Idalia’s center, likely impacting the Big Bend, Nature Coast counties north of Tampa and perhaps grazing Ocala. Inland hurricane conditions are likely for Gainesville, Lake City, and perhaps the western side of Jacksonville, as well as in extreme southeast Georgia. As long as the storm stays on its current forecast track, Tallahassee should be spared significant impacts.

Click to enlarge the image of wind risk in Florida, with Orlando possibly seeing tropical storm force winds, Tampa seeing tropical storm to hurricane-force winds, and the strongest winds in purple west of Ocala and Gainesville (NOAA)

For the east coast, tropical storm watches are in effect from Sebastian Inlet, FL north past Savannah and Charleston to the South Santee River in South Carolina. Storm surge watches cover the area north of the Florida/Georgia line to the South Santee River.

Rainfall

In terms of rain, anywhere from 4 to 8 inches will be possible along the track of Idalia across North Florida, into southeast Georgia and South Carolina as well as southeast North Carolina. Flooding is possible in any of these locations, but the increasing forward speed of Idalia will hopefully help mitigate severe freshwater flooding concerns.

Places like Jacksonville, Savannah, and Charleston will want to prepare for a combination of surge flooding, worsened by rainfall, which will prevent water from draining as quickly as usual. In those areas, flooding could be a little more noteworthy. We’ll touch on that some more tomorrow.

As is always the case with landfalling tropical systems, isolated tornadoes are possible across Florida and into southeast Georgia and the southeast Carolinas.

So, to summarize:

  • Idalia is likely to lead to dire storm surge impacts in the Big Bend of Florida with no real good modern analog.
  • Surge is highly likely south and east of where Idalia comes ashore, far from the center, but the landfall point matters significantly in determining who sees the worst surge. All of Gulf Coast Florida between Apalachicola and Sarasota should prepare for surge impacts.
  • Idalia’s strongest winds will impact the Big Bend and just inland, but gusts to hurricane-force are possible for Tampa and Ocala, and sustained hurricane-force winds may impact Gainesville and the western side of Jacksonville. Idalia’s wind field will extend well east of where it comes ashore.
  • Rainfall is a secondary impact in most spots in this particular storm, but still 4 to 8 inches of rainfall could cause flooding in Florida, southeast Georgia, coastal SC and southeast NC.
  • Places on the East Coast like Charleston, Savannah, and JAX could be dealing with some moderate surge flooding exacerbated by rainfall that limits drainage.

Our next full update will be on Tuesday morning. Look for a video update this evening on our social channels and follow our Twitter feed and Instagram stories for some other notes this evening.

Facebook
Instagram
TikTok
Twitter
Threads
Bluesky
Mastodon

Franklin becomes a major hurricane, but our focus needs to be on Idalia and its Florida impacts later this week

One sentence summary

Franklin has intensified into a major hurricane, with 130 mph sustained winds, overnight; but the bigger threat to land is Tropical Storm Idalia, which could become a major hurricane before striking Florida’s Gulf coast later this week.

Tropical Storm Idalia

We’re going to start with Idalia, because that poses by far the biggest threat. As of this morning, Idalia is nearing hurricane status with 65 mph winds, and it will probably reach that milestone later today. Unfortunately, it is likely to strengthen further over the next two days as it crosses over Gulf of Mexico waters that are extremely warm and, critically, moves into an upper atmosphere that should not significantly hamper intensification. For now, the National Hurricane Center forecasts that Idalia will become a Category 3 hurricane prior to landfall, but the storm could easily be a category stronger or weaker by Tuesday night as it nears the Florida coast. The one saving grace here is that Idalia will only have a little more than 24 hours over the open Gulf of Mexico waters to strengthen, and some modest wind shear may limit its ceiling.

Official track forecast for Idalia as of Monday morning. (National Hurricane Center)

So where will Idalia go?

Later today the storm will cross the far Western edge of Cuba, and then move into the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. After that it will move north-northeast, toward Florida. Our best forecast models are increasing in confidence, but there’s still some uncertainty in where Idalia’s most devastating winds and storm surge will go. The most likely area for landfall is the Big Bend area of the Florida coast, but a landfall from Panama City down to Tampa remains possible. The populated area of Tampa is on the right side of the storm, susceptible to the strongest winds and storm surge. However, based upon our best forecasts right now, the Tampa region would miss out on Idalia’s worst. But it’s going to be close.

Hurricanes produce three major threats: inland rainfall, storm surge, and damaging winds. In Idalia’s case, inland rainfall is slightly less of a concern because the storm is expected to maintain a reasonably high forward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday, as it crosses Florida and Georgia. That is not to say there will not be inland flooding from Idalia, particularly in areas such as Georgia and the Carolinas, but it should be mitigated by forward speed.

European model wind gust swath for Idalia through Wednesday. (Weather Bell)

So the bigger issues are likely to be storm surge and damaging winds. Both of these effects will be most intense along the line of the storm’s track, and to its right-hand side. We can see this in the forecast “wind gust swath” from the European model. Now this is just one model run, and most definitely subject to change, but it gives you a sense of how the worst of the winds will be relatively localized, near the core of of the storm. Wind gusts of up to 130 mph are possible, based on this forecast.

As for storm surge, this again will depend on the track’s location. For now the worst of it looks to occur in the Big Bend area of the Florida coast.

Peak storm surge forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

We will have an update on Idalia later today. The bottom line is that if you live in Florida, including the Tampa area, today is the last full day to make preparations for the impending storm. This is a storm to be taken seriously. Tropical Storm-force winds could arrive in parts of the state as early as the middle of the day on Tuesday.

Major Hurricane Franklin

Franklin has continued to strengthen overnight, and as of 7:35 am ET this morning the National Hurricane Center reported that the storm had reached sustained winds of 130 mph. Some further strengthening is likely later today as Franklin continues passing over warm waters and enjoys low wind shear.

Franklin will ben(d) around Bermuda this week. (National Hurricane Center)

Fortunately—very fortunately—Franklin is behaving for a storm in the Western Atlantic Ocean. Its projected track will follow a course far enough off the Atlantic seaboard of the United States to spare the coast of any significant effects. Moreover, Franklin should remain just far enough west and north of Bermuda to also spare the small island of its worst effects. Some tropical storm warnings may still be necessary for Bermuda, but it should be miss out on anything close to the worst of what the Atlantic season’s first major hurricane could dish out.

So go on Franklin, get on with your bad self.

What else is out there?

After Franklin and Idalia there is another system likely to develop from a tropical wave that will move off Africa on Tuesday. However, we don’t anticipate that this system will track toward the Caribbean Sea or the United States. It likely is not a concern as we head into early September.

Hurricane and storm surge watches posted along the Florida Gulf Coast in advance of Tropical Storm Idalia

One-sentence summary

Hurricane and storm surge watches are now posted along much of Florida’s west coast and parts of the Panhandle as Idalia is expected to bring impacts by Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Idalia

Tropical Storm Idalia (pronounced “ee-DAL-ya” for those that were not sure) formed this morning, and quite frankly it looks no better organized now than it did then. So in essence, not a whole lot has changed from our morning post.

Idalia is seeing a bit more thunderstorm activity (red & dark color) on its south side today, as well as to the east. (Tropical Tidbits)

This was mostly expected. Idalia is unlikely to really get moving in terms of intensity until it start getting a lift north, meaning a lot of the intensification we see from this storm may not occur until it’s rather close to land. Idalia is not exactly a small system, with thunderstorms extending from the Yucatan to east of the Isle of Youth in Cuba, which is about 400 to 500 mile wide swath of unsettled weather. To underscore, while the track of Idalia does matter, one need not be close to the center to feel the impacts of this storm as it comes north.

Idalia’s forecast track has not changed a ton, with a general north-northeast motion expected once it gets moving. The western Panhandle may be able to exhale some now, but the eastern Panhandle, Big Bend, Nature Coast south past Tampa should be watching Idalia’s progress closely. (NOAA NHC)

The track forecast today has not seen any dramatic changes, so, broadly we still expect a hurricane approaching the eastern Panhandle, Big Bend, Nature Coast, or Tampa area by Tuesday night. Again, given the size of Idalia and the geography of Florida, hurricane impacts may touch the coast well south of wherever Idalia comes ashore. So, it’s entirely conceivable that (hypothetically) Idalia makes landfall, say, near Cedar Key, while producing hurricane impacts as far south as Sarasota.

Indeed, the biggest change this evening is that we now have a broad swath of the Florida coast under Hurricane Watches and Storm Surge Watches.

Storm Surge Watch: Indian Pass on the Panhandle south to Chokoloskee on the southwest coast.
Hurricane Watch: Indian Pass south to Englewood, between Sarasota and Fort Myers
Tropical Storm Watch: Englewood south to Chokoloskee and for the Dry Tortugas.

On the map below I have overlaid the watches for Florida, in addition to the probability of 60 mph winds and the most likely arrival time of those tropical storm force winds. You can see how wide the berth is for potential strong wind.

The probability of 60 mph winds from Idalia as of today, the coastline highlighted where watches are posted, and the most likely arrival time of tropical storm force winds are shown on the map above. (NOAA NHC)

The storm surge forecast from the NHC is somewhat aggressive, and it seems warranted given Idalia’s current forecast intensity. The map below shows the reasonable maximum surge above ground level in the impacted areas.

The current forecast calls for as much as 2 to 5 feet of surge from south of Naples through the Tampa area, and values as high as 7 to 11 feet in the Big Bend and Nature Coast. (NOAA NHC)

One important note: During Irma and last year during Ian, because of the wind direction, surge was directed out of Tampa Bay. With Idalia currently forecast to pass west and north of Tampa, this would direct surge *into* Tampa Bay. So please don’t go storm chasing this to see a dry Tampa Bay. Another important note: As Idalia’s forecast is revised, this forecast will be revised too, and you should be following forecast progress closely. Florida’s geography and the unique interaction with storms coming from this direction can lead to some substantial forecast impact changes with surge in particular.

So, for folks along Florida’s west coast, the Big Bend, and parts of the eastern Panhandle: You will need to be ready for potential hurricane impacts, regardless of exactly where Idalia comes ashore.

Rain totals in excess of 6 inches will be possible as Idalia tracks north into Georgia and eventually the Carolinas leading to localized flash flooding. (NOAA NHC)

The rainfall forecast has not changed a ton. Idalia keeps moving at a good clip once it gets north of Florida. While this will by no means prevent flooding in spots, it does help to probably limit flooding concerns a bit. We’ll watch the situation in Carolinas a bit closely, as some heavy rain will front run Idalia today and tomorrow, and flood watches are already posted in eastern North Carolina. If I were watching some place closely for flooding risk, it would be there right now.

So, to summarize:

  • Idalia is still forecast to become a hurricane as it comes north into Florida Tuesday night.
  • Storm surge and hurricane watches are posted along much of Florida’s west coast indicating that surge and hurricane conditions are possible.
  • The forecast storm surge will be contingent on exactly where Idalia comes in but a substantial surge event is possible for the Nature Coast and Big Bend. Folks in Tampa Bay should watch this closely as well.
  • While portions of SW Florida impacted so badly by Ian last year are unlikely to take a direct hit from Idalia, there will likely be impacts there from high water, rough surf, and some gusty winds and some vulnerable portions of the waterfront still not fully recovered may see some issues.
  • Heavy rain will follow Idalia inland and North Carolina may be in line for the greatest inland flooding risk as it stands right now.
  • The forecast IS going to change in the coming days so check back for more.

We will have our next update for you as usual on Monday morning.