June 13, 2023 Outlook: Is dust a bust this season?

As promised, let’s take a look at the dust situation in the Atlantic today.

Michael Lowry, in his excellent tropical weather blog last week noted that dust has been running very, very low so far this season in the key main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic basin. Indeed that’s the case. While low dust does not mean no dust, as seen on the Saharan air layer color-infused satellite image from the University of Wisconsin below, it certainly has been a bit lackluster thus far.

Dust is out there, but it’s been extremely weak so far this season. The signature in the Gulf is just dry air, not dust. (University of Wisconsin SSEC)

Note the presence of extremely dry air in the Gulf of Mexico. That isn’t dust; it’s just that dry as high pressure begins flexing over Texas.

Dry air extends from the Gulf into the Caribbean and well out into the Atlantic as well, which will assist in keeping things quiet in the near-term. (Tropical Tidbits)

Brown on the image above implies dry air, while green implies moist air. More brown than green in key areas we care about means that dust or not, the atmosphere is not terribly conducive for development.

Over the next 7 to 10 days, we will likely see pockets of dust begin to migrate further across the basin, tinging the skies in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola with dust by later this week and again next week.

Some of the brighter colors on the loop from the NASA GEOS model above imply that dust will begin coming across the Atlantic in light to moderate bursts over the next 10 days, with perhaps noticeable dust in the Caribbean at times later this week and next week. (Weather Bell)

This also keeps much of the Atlantic basin quiet, as it should be this time of year. We’ll keep up on dust as it peaks in the coming weeks before declining in concert with the ramp up in hurricane season historically.

One sentence summary

Conditions continue to look relatively benign across the Atlantic, but a couple items pique our interest in the medium and longer range.

Happening now

All remains quiet this morning with no areas highlighted in either the Atlantic or Pacific basins by the National Hurricane Center over the next couple days.

The medium range (days 6-10): Mostly fine but not quiet

No real concerns are seen out through the weekend and into early next week. But there are a couple things to watch. First, the NHC did add an area to watch in the Pacific over the next 7 days, the first sign of change since the very beginning of the month.

The NHC has assigned a 20 percent chance for development to a portion of the Eastern Pacific, the first sign of meaningful change in the tropics since the beginning of June. (NOAA)

Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, there are some subtle model hints that low pressure may try to slowly develop just south of the main area of dust and dry air in the Atlantic just east of the Windward Islands. The map below shows the individual ensemble members of the European model on day 8 (next Tuesday), and about 20 percent of the 51 members show development, a minority to be sure but interesting nonetheless.

About 20 percent of the European ensemble members (and GFS ones too) show low-end development in the Atlantic early next week. (Weathernerds.org)

Remember, one off model runs like the GFS operational we’ve been discussing in fantasyland since last week are called deterministic models. Ensembles are when we tweak the initialization of each model run a bit and run it 30 to 50 different times. This creates wider goal posts, which is what we want as meteorologists. We need to see a realistic buffet of options when forecasting 5 to 10 days out, not a singular deterministic outcome.

We have seen a barrage of waves in the Atlantic so far this season, and although nothing has organized, they may be trying to prime the pump a bit for something. I don’t believe any system that forms next week would become a serious issue, but I would not be floored to see something out there. We’ll look closer at that tomorrow and Thursday.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): A little noisy

We continue to see plenty of signs of some noise in the Caribbean or southwest Gulf in the fantasyland timeframe. But we also continue to see no reason to believe anything organized will come of it at this point. The GFS continues to periodically try to develop spurious storms, but we will continue to ignore it completely.

We will join you again tomorrow!

June 12, 2023 Outlook: Another quiet week expected

We hope everyone had a good weekend. This week at The Eyewall, we’ll keep tabs on next week, when the pattern is expected to get at least a little more favorable for some type of noise. Maybe. We will also check in on Saharan dust tomorrow. This Wednesday, look for the first significant piece from us on the spate of high-end hurricanes in recent years in the Gulf of Mexico. We talked to experts, read research, and broke down what we think is important for you to know if you live anywhere along the Gulf Coast. We hope you’ll check it out.

One-sentence summary

The Atlantic looks quiet for another week, with minimal development chances and a whole lot of wind shear dominating the picture.

Happening now: Very little!

Let’s take a look at the satellite image of the Atlantic this morning.

We start the week with a very quiet Gulf and Caribbean. There are still some decent storms pushing off Africa, but nothing should come of those. Some disorganized activity is scattered about off the Southeast coast. (College of DuPage)

This week is starting off quiet. The Gulf and Caribbean are void of much in the way of thunderstorm activity, and there’s nothing in the Atlantic of note. Saharan dust and dry air are mostly in control right now, with a dollop of wind shear. You can expect this sort of satellite image with those conditions.

The medium range (days 6-10): Nothing expected

As of right now, we don’t expect any development in the medium range period. Certainly not through the weekend. I will say that there are a couple reasons to think that perhaps early next week we could start seeing more thunderstorm activity in either the southwest Caribbean or on the Pacific side of Central America. None of those areas would feature a candidate for development at this point, however. Just a little more to talk about.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): The GFS won’t give it up

The GFS continues to advertise a spurious tropical system in the Caribbean and/or Gulf. I sort of debuted our TikTok account this weekend with an explanation on that. We’ll work on a way to cross-post videos like this elsewhere for those that prefer to avoid TikTok. Whatever the case, I also wrote about this Friday and quite frankly not much has changed. I would argue that the overall pattern looks a little more interesting next week, but exactly what we can generate from it, if anything at all, remains uncertain. I would say that if I had to bet, the eastern Pacific basin would be much more likely to see something before the Caribbean does beyond day 10. But we’ll see. More tomorrow!

June 9, 2023 Outlook: Tying together the seasonal forecast pieces

Happy Friday! Congratulations, we made it through the week without a named storm. Let’s do it again next week. There’s not a lot new to add forecast-wise today, so we’ll keep it brief and then tie together all the threads of our seasonal outlook below. Next week, we’ll touch on dust, and look for a bit of a longer-form piece on the spate of recent major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and what it does or does not tell us about the future. A lot of effort went into that and I think it’s important to understand, so I hope you’ll check it out next week.

Meanwhile, be sure to give our social feeds a follow on the right (or bottom on mobile) and spread the word to your family and friends on the East Coast, Gulf Coast, Atlantic Canada, Caribbean, or Central America!

One-sentence summary

No tropical development is expected over the next seven to ten days.

Happening now: All’s quiet

Take a quick peak at the satellite image across the Atlantic basin, and while it’s definitely not quiet, there is nothing of note anywhere out there, as you expect in June.

We’ve periodically seen flare ups of storms across the basin, though this morning isn’t too bad. The loudest area is off Cuba and in the Bahamas. Noisy at times, yes, but nothing is organized. (College of DuPage)

The medium range (days 6-10): Still nothing

We continue to watch for activity to get a little more interesting late, but through day 10 at least, there’s nothing to really speak of out there.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): No change in thinking

We explained yesterday in some detail why we did not believe the operational GFS model. We continue to hold those truths to be self-evident today.

Tying together the seasonal outlook: “Average” is the path of least resistance

On Tuesday we talked about the various seasonal forecasts from different government, private sector, and academic institutions. On Wednesday we noted how El Niño makes a convincing case for a quieter hurricane season. But yesterday we noted how the Atlantic Ocean was in a condition that typically correlates with very active seasons.

So what do we make of all this?

Well, yesterday, NOAA declared that we’re officially in an El Niño now. This gives us a bit of confidence that we’re going to maintain at least a weak, if not a moderate El Niño (or stronger) through the peak of hurricane season. The wind shear imparted on the Atlantic by El Niño is a tough barrier to get past. It would be difficult to expect an active hurricane season given El Niño. But given the setup in the Atlantic, it seems difficult to expect this season to behave quite as quietly as past El Niño seasons. One need only look at the European model forecast for the season to see this.

The ECMWF (European model) is calling for an above average season of activity in the Atlantic basin. (ECMWF)

It calls for an above average hurricane season. It says, to heck with El Niño, the Atlantic is blazing, let’s rev it up! I think it’s notable to look back to last year in June, however. The ECMWF was also calling for a very active season (as were most of us), and that did not materialize. Last year was “average” statistically.

So given all this, I call forecasting an average season the path of least resistance. What I ultimately think could happen is that the Caribbean struggles due to shear, the eastern Atlantic is very busy, and the most concerning items this season will be systems close to home that form when wind shear relaxes some, possibly off the Southeast and in the Gulf. I believe it will be tough to relax shear enough this season to produce the ultra high-end storms we’ve seen in recent years, but that’s completely speculative on my part. We’ve also seen some instances in recent years where shear has actually helped some storms along, depending on where exactly it was placed. So never say never.

Back on Tuesday I said that the consensus forecast (16 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes) was as good a forecast as you could offer right now. I stand by that, with perhaps slightly higher odds for a little under those hurricane/major hurricane numbers.

As always, prepare for the season the same way you would if we told you it was be insanely active, which is to say: Know your zone, have a plan, build a kit.

Enjoy the weekend. We’ll be back with you again Monday!

June 8, 2023 Outlook: Continued quiet for a bit longer

Thanks to Eric for covering yesterday. Much like we do with Space City Weather, he and I will split duties, though I’ll spearhead most of this site, as he does with Space City Weather. Today we’ll discuss more about why the GFS model is probably getting the day 10+ range wrong. We’ll also tackle part 3 of our seasonal outlook which discusses water temperatures in the Atlantic.

One-sentence summary

The tropics are quiet, and we continue to believe that what is shown on the GFS model late in its forecast period is not a serious concern.

Happening now: Not too much!

All is quiet across the tropics this morning with no disturbances of note. The main weather feature right now is an upper low near New England that has been responsible for directing Canadian wildfire smoke into the East.

Copious amounts of wildfire smoke have produced the worst air quality in decades in much of the Mid-Atlantic and New York. (College of DuPage)

While this is not directly related to tropical weather, it was noteworthy to watch the squashing of fair weather clouds as smoke moved into some locations in the Northeast. Reminiscent of how Saharan dust can help inhibit tropical systems. We’ll touch more on the dust situation next week.

The medium range (days 6-10): Nothing yet

We continue to see quiet conditions likely to continue through about day 10, so there is not much to discuss here.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): The GFS is probably still wrong

We’ve talked about this for a few days now, but we also know that when something shows something adverse consistently, it can spark some concerns. Despite the fact that the GFS operational model has shown a substantial storm for multiple straight runs in the day 12 to 16 timeframe, we remain fairly convicted that it’s really nothing to worry over. Besides the fact that the GFS frequently gravitates toward “scareicanes” in the Gulf this time of year, Eric also touched on the ensembles not supporting it yesterday. That remains true today.

Only a handful of the 30+ GFS ensemble members show tracks of a meaningful tropical system on this “spaghetti plot” at the same time the GFS operational model shows one, indicating that, at the least, what happens probably will not do so as the operational model shows. (Weathernerds.org)

Operational model runs are really just that: One run of one model. It’s deterministic. This is what the model thinks is going to happen, and that’s that. Ensemble guidance is much more nuanced. You take those models, like the GFS or ECMWF (the Euro) and run it 30 to 50 different times with tweaks to how the model is initialized, the starting point that it bases the rest of the forecast on. By doing this, you get a more realistic set of possible outcomes than just what one deterministic model shows. And in the case of this rogue GFS model storm, the ensemble guidance offers little additional support for something like the operational model shows. And the European model? It shows nothing at all.

That said, there’s good reason to think that something may be afoot late. I touched on this a little back on Monday. But the overall background pattern is going to become a bit more supportive for rising air in the Atlantic.

The overall pattern late in the forecast period (after June 19th or so) is favorable for some sort of nonsense in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf, but it probably looks nothing like what the GFS operational has shown and may be a bit sloppier. It could even end up in the Pacific. Long way to go. (Tropical Tidbits)

Couple that with an upper level pattern that shows a mean trough (dip in the jet stream) over the Southeast, eastern Gulf, and western Caribbean, and that argues that, broadly, we look more favorable for tropical development toward the final 7 to 10 days of June. But probably not like what the GFS operational model is showing at the moment. We’ll see if this can roll forward as we move into next week.

The 2023 seasonal outlook Part 3: Atlantic Ocean water temperatures

On Tuesday we discussed what the outlooks were for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Yesterday we broke down El Niño. Today, let’s look at the Atlantic Ocean. With the exception of the northeast Gulf of Mexico, the area off the immediate Southeast and Mid Atlantic coasts, and a chunk of the subtropical Atlantic, the entire basin is running hot, with widespread water temperature anomalies that are above normal.

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from earlier this week across the Atlantic basin, with a couple exceptions, are on fire right now. (Weather Bell)

As Michael Lowry pointed out in his (always excellent) daily tropical newsletter yesterday, the eastern portion of the Atlantic is at its warmest levels on record for this time of year, and it is not really even close. Obviously, this is important. But just how important? If you look at page 9 of Colorado State University’s seasonal hurricane outlook from this month, you’ll find that eastern Atlantic SSTs have a nearly 0.6 correlation to seasonal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). In simple terms: A warm eastern Atlantic this time of year typically produces active hurricane seasons.

It’s tough to find a true analog to this year though because a.) this is the record warmest and b.) no previous upper-end warm eastern Atlantic basin temperatures coincided with an El Niño event in the Pacific. But, looking at the Atlantic in a box, if you took the five warmest years outlined in CSU’s forecast behind 2023, you averaged 23 named storms. Big yikes. Compare this to what we said about El Niño yesterday, which averaged 9 storms. Those goalposts are wide enough for <insert the name of a football kicker who has undoubtedly made you angry at some point> to never miss. No one ever got into weather forecasting because it was easy.

So El Niño implies a weak hurricane season, while the current water temperature situation in the Atlantic implies an extremely active season. This is a tug of war and a half, and one of the most fascinating seasonal forecasting challenges I’ve ever seen. Tomorrow we’ll talk about some risks and tie a ribbon on all this.