Updated look at what to expect into Tuesday with the major Eastern U.S. winter storm

One sentence summary

This evening’s post offers an update on what to expect with a major Eastern U.S. storm into Tuesday, as well as some comments on more storms to come.

Major Eastern U.S. storm hitting through Tuesday

Back on Saturday we talked about the flooding risk specific to New Jersey due to snowmelt, saturated ground, and 2-3 inches of additional rain tomorrow. That risk has been refined today to include eastern Pennsylvania, DC, Maryland, northern Virginia, and portions of southern New York and Connecticut.

A moderate risk (level 3/4) for excessive rainfall and flooding is posted for Tuesday in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. (NOAA)

Total rainfall will be on the order of 1 to 3 inches in this region, which is plenty of water to produce flash and river flooding. Flood Watches are up from southern New England into Virginia, and tomorrow should be a very active day.

Rainfall tomorrow will be on the order of 1 to 3 inches over a broad area from the Southeast into New England, with the greatest flooding risk from Virginia into southern New England. (Pivotal Weather)

There are a ton of other elements to this storm. Let’s walk through them.

Severe weather: Tonight looks to be a very active severe weather night in the Deep South and along the Gulf Coast east of Texas. An enhanced risk is in effect for this region (level 3/5), and tornadoes are a distinct possibility. That severe risk will continue into the southeast tomorrow with an enhanced risk from north Florida into southern Georgia, and eastern South & North Carolina.

An overview of the severe weather expected tonight into Tuesday across the South. (NOAA SPC)

Again, strong winds and tornadoes are possible in these areas.

Wind gusts: Widespread wind gusts in excess of 40-50 mph are possible, if not likely across the Plains, Midwest, Southeast, and East tonight into tomorrow. Coastal New England, Long Island, and the Mid-Atlantic could see 60+ mph winds. This will be an exceptionally potent and widespread wind storm across the eastern half of the country, and there will likely be numerous power outages.

The NWS forecast for wind gusts shows 50 mph or stronger for parts of the Gulf Coast and South, as well as up the East Coast into coastal New England and in Upstate New York. This type of wind will cause numerous scattered power outages in parts of the Eastern U.S., so prepare for some disruption on Tuesday. (Weather Bell)

Snow: A major snowstorm will occur on the northwest flank on this storm, with anywhere from 6 to 12 inches or even more across northern Missouri, Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin.

Heavy snow will fall in the Midwest, with Iowa, extreme northern Missouri, and parts of Wisconsin seeing the heaviest snow. Slightly less snow will fall south and east of there for Chicago and Detroit. (Pivotal Weather)

The combination of snow and wind will produce blizzard conditions from northeast New Mexico into Kansas, with near-blizzard conditions at times northeast of there.

The NWS Winter Storm Severity Index shows major impacts from northern Missouri into Wisconsin, as well as moderate impacts for some areas from New Mexico into Maine.

But wait, there’s more!

At least two more major storms are queued up in the pipeline. The next one will take a track similar to slightly farther east than the current storm. Expect more wind, more snow, more flooding rain, and more severe weather risk on Friday into Saturday.

The European model forecasting a parade of winter storms across the Midwest and Eastern U.S. over the next 10 days.

The subsequent storm will arrive Monday or Tuesday next week, and this one may take a farther east track, meaning we’ll watch for snow chances to creep eastward. But it could also produce more flooding and more wind in the East. Additional total liquid of 2 to 4 inchers more is almost certainly going to exacerbate flooding concerns in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. More to come on these.

2 thoughts on “Updated look at what to expect into Tuesday with the major Eastern U.S. winter storm”

    • Noted! I know we picked up a bunch of followers in that neck of the woods during all the storms this past summer. We’ll try to highlight some stuff there when we can!

Comments are closed.