In brief: Invest 94L’s future is obliteration, as the Atlantic settles back down. Tropical Storm Lala will bear down on Hawaii today and tomorrow with strong winds and heavy rainfall.
Atlantic update
The risk of any tropical development in the Atlantic has all but vanished at this point, with the odds of Invest 94L developing down to 10 percent today.
This is very reminiscent of 2025, when the models would get a little excited about a wave in the Atlantic, only to have it stumble and faceplant in the end. Invest 94L looks to be obliterated by wind shear and dry air issues.
The next one to watch will be the next wave to emerge off Africa. At this point, I see no reason why this won’t meet a similar fate to 92L and 94L. We’ll keep watching.
Tropical Storm Lala
Meanwhile near Hawaii, Lala is beginning to bear down on the Big Island. Some of the higher elevation locations are gusting over 50 mph now.
There is still some chance that Lala could attain hurricane intensity on approach to the Big Island, but it’s not going to change the forecast impacts much. Strong winds, heavy rain, and rough seas remain the story.
As Lala passes the Big Island, the interaction with the mountains is likely to lead to some erratic movement and weakening. It will re-emerge on the other side, jostle north a bit, and then go back on its west-northwest track.
The total forecast rainfall from Lala has not changed a significant amount since yesterday, with upwards of 25 inches possible on the windward side of the Big Island. Yesterday, when I was discussing major impacts to the Big Island, I neglected to include 2018’s Hurricane Lane. Although it passed well south and west of the islands, it slowed, weakened, and allowed for punishing rains of almost Harvey levels to impact the Big Island. Lane’s problem was that it slowed and nearly stalled. In this case, Lala should continue moving. So generally speaking, while there will be serious rainfall with Lala, we probably aren’t looking at something like that.
Winds will likely cause some damage, especially in Maui and on the Big Island. The strongest winds will be in the high terrain and downwind from the higher mountains, with tropical storm force winds a possibility across the entire island chain. For places like Oahu, the intensity of the wind may depend a bit on how far north Lala comes before turning back west-northwest.
There’s a lot of spread still, with some model ensemble members coming only within about 60 to 80 miles of the other islands. So folks outside the hardest impacted areas will need to take this seriously.
After tomorrow, Lala will be on its way west and the cleanup can begin.