Lee is on track to deliver mostly expected impacts to Atlantic Canada and Maine today, with heavy rain ongoing in Maine, a 2 foot surge so far in Canada, and wind gusts as high as hurricane-force so far in portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.
Hurricane Lee is arriving in the Canadian Maritime provinces this morning. (Weathernerds.org)
Hurricane Lee (now-post-tropical): 80 mph, moving N 25 mph
Lee was determined to be post-tropical, which means it’s now essentially a gigantic nor’easter instead of a tropically-derived hurricane. It means absolutely nothing other than a classification change. Impacts are identical to forecast.
Lee is flinging very heavy rain onshore in Maine right now, with a band of torrential rain between Fredericton, NB and Acadia National Park.
A band of torrential rain is moving ashore in Maine and portions of New Brunswick. (RadarScope)
Meanwhile, wind gusts have been ticking up around the region, with Grand Manan as high as 123 km/hr (77 mph), Halifax as high as 117 km/hr (73 mph), Mt. Washington, NH to 74 mph, St. John, NB to 85 km/hr (53 mph), Nantucket to 55 mph, and Eastport, ME to 62 mph.
The high tide cycle ongoing right now, as well as the next one this evening will be the highest for these areas. Yarmouth, NS is seeing about a 0.6m (2 ft) surge, Halifax 0.7m, and St. John about 0.5m. These are generally in line with expectations, maybe a smidge under. Surge of up to 1.5m (5 ft) is possible in Nova Scotia. With Lee’s center still technically south of Nova Scotia, the highest surge is yet to come. In addition, some potent waves will be coming ashore in Nova Scotia as well, with a buoy near Lee’s center at 8 AM AST reporting 30 foot waves.
So I think the takeaway here right now: Worst is over for southern New England, and it was handled pretty well as expected. Maine, particularly Downeast are in the height of the storm now, and it will wind down this afternoon. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and PEI will be in the height of the storm shortly if not already, and it will wind down tonight.
Elsewhere
Tropical Storm Margot may turn toward the Azores next week, while weakening and becoming a post-tropical cyclone.
Tropical Depression 15 should become Nigel today, if not by the next advisory. It is expected to become a hurricane out at sea, while re-curving east of Bermuda.
TD 15 should become Nigel very soon, and it will likely stay out at sea, away from land. (NOAA NHC)
Another potential Cabo Verde system may try to slowly develop later next week, but that is not a guarantee. The Gulf looks quiet, as does the Caribbean. Otherwise, things look generally quiet elsewhere too. We’ll let you know if that changes.
Hurricane Lee is expected to reach the Bay of Fundy or western Nova Scotia by midday Saturday, bringing widespread wind, power outages, coastal flooding, and battering waves to the western half of Nova Scotia in particular.
Lee is expected to make landfall on the New Brunswick Fundy coast or western Nova Scotia on Saturday afternoon. (Tomer Burg)
Hurricane Lee: 80 mph, moving NNE 20 mph
What’s changed since this morning?
Not much. The forecast appears mostly on track. Lee’s potential surge has been upgraded for the Atlantic coast of mainland Nova Scotia to 1.5m (3 to 5 feet).
Nantucket is currently seeing wind gusts as high as 47 mph. Mt. Washington, NH is now sustained at 45 mph, gusting to 55 mph.
Bands of rain have overspread Nova Scotia and will move into Maine and New Brunswick tonight. (RadarScope)
Update on Lee
I honestly don’t have a lot to add this evening. This is more of a “hey, Lee is arriving, and we’re just checking in” post. The forecast impacts should be pretty baked in. Reading over some of the latest from Environment Canada, it appears that the surge values have been increased some on the Nova Scotia coast between Shelburne County to Guysborough County where a Storm Surge Warning is posted. This is essentially the entire Atlantic facing coast of Mainland Nova Scotia.
The latest information from Environment Canada on Hurricane Lee. (Environment Canada)
We’ll see about the Bay of Fundy and how the water levels behave toward the Isthmus of Chignecto. The current track probably alleviates some of the risk for extreme conditions in those areas, focusing the worst on coastal mainland Nova Scotia.
In addition to surge concerns, winds are likely to cause widespread power outages on the Maine coast, as well as much of mainland Nova Scotia. Trees may be more susceptible to being knocked down from the wind given the antecedent wet soils in place. Heavy rain may cause additional flooding, with the highest risk probably being in eastern portions of Downeast Maine, central and northeastern New Brunswick and into the Gaspe region and Quebec Lower North Shore through Blanc-Sablon.
Rainfall from Hurricane Lee is expected to be worst in eastern portions of Downeast Maine, New Brunswick, as well as portions of Nova Scotia, which will be more susceptible than usual to flooding due to recent rainfall. (NOAA NHC)
Soil moisture in Maine is running in the 98th to 99th percentile, per the NWS in Caribou, which means that flash flooding will not be difficult to do with these rain totals. Portions of Nova Scotia have already seen a good deal of rain recently, so they too are vulnerable, particularly in the Annapolis Valley.
So we’ll see how it goes. We’ll have a full update for you in the morning. Be safe!
Hurricane Lee is en route to Atlantic Canada, a gigantic system, size-wise, and it will bring high-end tropical storm or hurricane impacts and surge to Atlantic Canada and Maine tomorrow.
Hurricane Lee: 85 mph, moving N 16 mph
What’s changed since Thursday evening?
Lee is beginning the process of transitioning to an extratropical system (more like a nor’easter than a hurricane), though the impacts will be the same regardless of designation.
Large, lumbering Lee lurching north toward Atlantic Canada. Expect conditions to gradually deteriorate on the coast of Massachusetts later today, New Hampshire and Maine later tonight, and Atlantic Canada on Saturday morning. (Weathernerds.org)
Lee’s forecast impacts
Let’s move south to north today.
First, Bermuda should see improving conditions through the day today as Lee pulls away. Given Lee’s size, it would be likely to assume a breeze will continue out of the southwest, probably at tropical storm force at times, diminishing later and returning to calmer conditions overnight.
Wind gusts near 60 mph will be possible on Cape Cod and Nantucket. Wind gusts drop off quickly away from the coast and Cape, though some higher terrain in central Mass north of Worcester could be a bit gusty. (NWS Boston)
For Massachusetts, winds will pick up out of the north-northeast through the day, reaching near tropical storm force this evening with gusts over 50 mph possible on the coast. Wind should peak around daybreak Saturday and then drop off through the day out of the northwest. Look for periods of rain, as well tonight and early Saturday, perhaps adding up to an inch or so on the Cape and Nantucket, less in Boston and Martha’s Vineyard.
Mostly “minor” level coastal flooding is expected from Lee across the Cape & Islands. (NWS Boston)
Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet will be possible for Nantucket, the Cape and up the Mass coast. Coastal flooding should be qualified mostly as “minor” in nature from this one.
In New Hampshire and southern Maine, winds should pick up this evening and peak Saturday morning through midday. Look for gusts of 45 to 55 mph or so on the coast, lower inland. Rain totals should be about an inch or so. Conditions will probably be a bit worse in southeast Massachusetts than in this area, due to the coastal geography. Surge will again be about 1 to 3 feet in this area, leading to minor coastal flooding.
In the White Mountains, the Maine lakes, Highlands, Kennebec Valley, and up through Katahdin, you can expect elevation dependent outcomes. Low elevations should see mostly 35 to 45 mph wind gusts with periods of rain. Higher peaks will probably see 60 to 80 mph gusts, with Mt. Washington, NH probably checking in around 100 to 125 mph.
Rain totals will be in the 1 to 3 inch range, with lower-end amounts in New Hampshire and higher-end amounts in Maine.
For the Midcoast and Downeast Maine, you’ll likely see tropical storm conditions move in on Saturday morning and linger into Saturday night. Conditions should improve Sunday afternoon. The closer you get to Lubec and Eastport, the worse the conditions should be. Expect sustained winds near tropical storm force, around 40 mph or so, with gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Periods of heavy rain will lead to 2 or 3 inches in most places, with higher amounts as you get between Acadia and Eastport.
Wind gusts forecast for late morning Saturday should be close to hurricane force along parts of the Downeast coast and 40 to 60 mph elsewhere. (Pivotal Weather)
Surge of 1 to 3 feet (~1m) along the coast should lead to mostly minor flooding in Maine.
Moving into Canada, I don’t necessarily want to repeat everything I wrote yesterday, but I will repeat some because we took a deeper dive into Canadian impacts, and not a whole lot has changed since yesterday.
For coastal New Brunswick along the Bay of Fundy and western Nova Scotia along the Bay of Fundy, expect heavy rainfall, tropical storm conditions, and some very rough surf. I remain concerned about the Bay of Fundy and surge. There are some signs that the center may come in close to Saint John, NB which could allow a good bit of water to enter the bay. We will continue to watch this closely.
Digby into the Annapolis Valley in Nova Scotia saw a good bit of rain yesterday, and additional rain may front run things today. With another 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) or more, flash flooding may become an issue in parts of Nova Scotia.
Our impacts map based on Thursday’s Environment Canada update (not much has changed today). Still expecting significant surge in Nova Scotia and perhaps the Bay of Fundy.
Significant surge impacts with big waves will be likely in Nova Scotia along the Atlantic coast. Additionally, borderline hurricane conditions will be possible here. Probably the worst land impacts from Lee will happen on the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia.
Eastern Nova Scotia will probably see nor’easter type conditions with tropical storm force gusts possible.
Prince Edward Island could see some rough surf inbound off the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Meanwhile, some of that rough surf could impact Nova Scotia and New Brunswick off the Northumberland Strait. But coastal impacts overall will be minor to moderate, with periods of rain and gusty winds.
Heavy rain will fall across central and northern New Brunswick, as well as the Gaspe Region of Quebec. Totals of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75mm) are likely here.
Total rainfall in New Brunswick will be 2 to 4 in (50-100 mm), as it will be in western Nova Scotia. Amounts over 4 inches are possible in parts of Maine and maybe an isolated spot in New Brunswick up through the Gaspe Region. (NOAA)
Overall, for most folks, Lee will be an inconvenience and a nuisance storm. People along the Downeast Maine coast, Bay of Fundy, southwestern half of Nova Scotia, and much of New Brunswick should be taking Lee seriously and preparing for perhaps some more significant impacts. Fingers crossed for a positive outcome.
Elsewhere: Margot and Future Nigel
Margot remains a non-issue for us. Invest 97L is closer to developing this morning. The next name on the list is Nigel. This system is expected to avoid most land. However, it may be an item to watch for Bermuda eventually.
The track of Invest 97L (future Nigel, probably) brings it mostly northwest, perhaps broadly toward Bermuda next week. Otherwise, there should be a bit less heartburn with this system than we had with Lee. (Tomer Burg)
There may be yet another Cabo Verde system next week, which would likely follow Nigel out to sea. The Gulf remains quiet.
Lee’s forecast is mostly unchanged today as we watch it forecast to bring significant surge to Nova Scotia and widespread wind and rain in New England and Canada.
Lee’s forecast is virtually unchanged today. (Tomer Burg)
Hurricane Lee: 85 mph, moving N 15 mph
What’s changed since this morning?
Tropical Storm Watches have been upgraded to Warnings for Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, as well as for the coast between Westport, MA and the Canadian border. Hurricane Watches remain in effect for a portion of Maine coast, a portion of the New Brunswick coast, and a portion of Nova Scotia. Tropical Storm Watches were expanded east a bit in Nova Scotia to Point Tupper.
The Storm Surge Watch for Cape Cod and the Islands was dropped, and the surge forecast lowered to 1 to 3 feet.
Lee’s wind field has grown to 345 miles from the center.
Lee’s impacts update & focus on New Hampshire, Maine, and Canada
Earlier today we talked about Massachusetts more in depth. Let’s focus farther up the coast for New Hampshire and Maine, as well as in Canada.
In general, winds are expected to be about 40 to 60 mph along and west of the track of Lee for eastern New England. Gusts of 60 to 80 mph will be possible just offshore of Maine. We could see higher gusts capable of bringing down trees in the Presidential Range or White Mountains in New Hampshire, as well as the higher peaks in the lakes region of Maine, Kennebec Valley, and Highlands. I suspect there will be some impressive wind gusts atop Mount Washington, as well as atop Katahdin.
Click to enlarge the forecast wind hazard map for Maine and New Hampshire. (NOAA)
Higher gusts will also be possible along the Midcoast and for the coast and mainland of Downeast Maine.
The rain forecast for Maine is a pretty uniform 1 to 3 inches for most of the state, with higher amounts basically south and east of Bangor, where Downeast could see 4 to 5 inches or so. Expect about an inch or less in New Hampshire, except along the coast or near the Maine border. Vermont will probably see clouds and some lighter rain. Expect heavy rain to impact New Brunswick as well as Nova Scotia too with 3 to 6 inches (75-150 mm).
Generally about 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected in Maine, with 4 to 5 inches for Downeast Maine. Lesser amounts are expected in New Hampshire and Vermont. (Pivotal Weather)
In terms of timing, look for tropical storm force winds to arrive Friday evening in southeast Massachusetts, just before sunrise Saturday on the North Shore of Mass and New Hampshire, Saturday morning for southern Maine and the Midcoast, and Saturday afternoon from Downeast into Atlantic Canada. Rain should spread southeast to northwest along the entire coast from Rhode Island through New Brunswick on Saturday morning after 12 AM or so. Nova Scotia may see rain begin late Saturday afternoon.
Note: The rain today in Nova Scotia, PEI, and New Brunswick may be a predecessor rain event (PRE) ahead of the hurricane. We’ve seen as much as 30 mm in spots from this rain, especially near Digby.
I remain concerned about surge impacts in both the Bay of Fundy and along the Nova Scotia coast in particular. The combination of high waves and high tides and surge will likely cause coastal flooding. Per Environment Canada, the most likely area for significant impacts is the Atlantic coast of mainland Nova Scotia. Rough seas and flooding issues are likely in the Bay of Fundy and perhaps to the north of Nova Scotia over the Gulf of St. Lawrence or Northumberland Strait.
A rough outline of impacts expected in Atlantic Canada based on Thursday afternoon’s update from Environment Canada. This map is an approximation and by no means official or perfect.
The second high tide cycle on Saturday, the one during the evening hours is likely to be the most severe one in Nova Scotia. Flooding is likely between Queens County and Halifax County. Water levels may be up over 3 feet (1m) above high tide levels, and a storm surge warning may be required for that time. I still want to watch the Bay of Fundy to see how much water gets funneled in toward the Isthmus of Chignecto.
We will have more details and info tomorrow morning at the usual time, around 8 AM ET.
