Invest 94L in the Atlantic is struggling as it continues to plod west toward the Caribbean, while Invest 90E in the Pacific has some potential to develop and impact Mexico in the next 7 to 10 days.
It’s been interesting to watch Invest 94L over the last several days. We’ve seen cycles of model runs that are quite bullish on development, followed up by cycles of model runs that are not. We are currently in the latter, where model support has waned for Invest 94L’s development. That’s not say it’s impossible (the NHC still gives it 70% odds over the next week), but it is not looking nearly as robust as it did late last week.
Thunderstorm activity around Invest 94L is not exactly organized this morning. (Weathernerds.org)
On satellite this morning, you can see the convection (thunderstorm activity) this morning around 94L struggling a bit. There is no organization to this. It looked far better on Saturday, then collapsed yesterday. And here we are. Over the next 2 to 3 days it should plod west and will probably wax and wane in organization.
The total density track plot for 94L as of yesterday showed a broad track toward the Lesser Antilles, but low confidence in how much development we’d see on that path. (Tomer Burg)
Folks in the islands probably want to continue to monitor the progress of 94L, as it almost certainly tracks in that direction. Overall, 94L certainly looks less menacing than last week. But it still has a chance at becoming a tropical storm or better. Beyond the islands, 94L would probably turn north and eventually out to sea, assuming it organizes. We’ll keep an eye on it this week.
Elsewhere, Sean finally met its demise late last night. Sean tied for the 6th least amount of generated ACE this season in the Atlantic meaning it was not much of a storm. There are no current signs of any further activity behind Sean’s remnants and Invest 94L at this time.
Pacific outlook
The most interesting of the potential tropical systems in the Atlantic or Pacific is probably in the Pacific. Invest 90E seems likely to develop over the next couple days as it meanders over the open Pacific. Steering currents do suggest that this one will shift back north and eventually east toward the coast of Mexico at some point, so this bears close watching there.
From the Euro ensemble overnight, you can see a pretty basic calculus for Invest 90E. If it develops with some potency, it will likely turn north or northeast back toward Mexico. If it struggles, it may meander south of Baja offshore. (Weathernerds.org)
Much like in the Atlantic, a weaker storm would probably plod farther out to sea, whereas one that organizes more quickly would be apt to turn north and eventually northeast. Right now, given that 90E has pretty robust thunderstorm activity, the money may be on the latter outcome. We’ll see what we’ve got here over the next few days.
U.S. Weather update: Quiet but warming
We will have a pretty quiet week across the country this week, with no real serious weather to speak of. We will likely have some warm temperatures building out of the West, with some record highs and a number of record warm minimum temperatures later in the week.
Temperatures will begin the week cool in the East, but building warmth in the Western U.S. is likely to spread eastward as the week goes on. (Weather Bell)
Otherwise, it looks pretty quiet for most of this week across the country!
Decent viewing is expected for this weekend’s solar eclipse, with a few exceptions, while we have a few days to check on Invest 94L before it develops and potentially becomes a troublemaker in the Atlantic.
Tropics: Invest 94L emerges as a potential troublesome late season pest in the Atlantic
Tropical Storm Sean regrouped yesterday, but it is expected to gradually fade away as it turns northwest over the next few days.
Behind Sean, however, lurks our next system. I was hoping we might have a couple days to chill out before we started really following this one, but here we are. Invest 94L is nothing to look at right now, and it only has a very low chance to develop into anything over the weekend. But as we go into next week, the odds are beginning to increase that something will come of this.
Over the next 7 to 10 days, Invest 94L is expected to trek west or just north of due west while only slowly developing. (Tomer Burg)
While we’re a long way from having to actually worry about this, there’s enough potential there to say this is going to be worth watching. As Sean exits, the central Atlantic is going to fill up with a pretty beefy ridge of high pressure. Winds turn clockwise around high pressure, which means, 94L will be generally directed due west with minimal latitude gain over the next several days. Wind shear may or may not begin to lighten up a bit on its track as well, and that will help determine what upside there is to this system.
High pressure over the central Atlantic will steer 94L due west or just north of due west for much of next week. (Tropical Tidbits)
What is troublesome is that the odd lack of latitude gain and the oddly far south for October placement makes this a candidate to potentially run into the Caribbean islands. And if it can find a hospitable environment to strengthen in before that point, well we may actually have a storm to watch in the Caribbean in 8 to 10 days or so. For now, any talk of 94L’s end game is speculative at best, but this will merit watching in the days ahead.
Much of Texas will have good viewing, but cloud cover looks a little more prevalent in portions of the Panhandle and Rio Grande Valley. (Weather Bell)
Per the NWS outlook, Texas looks mostly good. As you get into the Rio Grande Valley, there will be cloud cover, particularly between McAllen and Del Rio. There will likely be at least some cloud cover in Brownsville, San Antonio, and Corpus Christi. The Panhandle will also see clouds, as should southeastern New Mexico, though hopefully not a total overcast.
Some patchy cloud cover may spoil viewing a little in northern Utah, but southern Utah looks mostly good, as does northwest New Mexico. Anyone hoping to view in Monument Valley, the Grand Canyon, or southern Utah parks should be good. (Weather Bell)
Utah will have at least some cloud cover in most spots, but it does not seem like enough to obscure the eclipse, especially near the path of total annularity. Coastal Oregon looks clouded in, with gradual improvement as you head east across the state and into Nevada, which should just have patchy clouds here or there.
Coastal Oregon will probably have the sun obscured by clouds, and conditions may struggle a bit farther inland but conditions improve in Nevada. (Weather Bell)
Overall, the only two places that I think will have real problems are coastal Oregon and portions of the Rio Grande Valley. Hopefully you’re able to see it where you are if in the path, and please remember to use eye protection!
Elsewhere, we should hopefully see the beginnings of calmer weather this weekend nationally after some heavy rain of 1 to 3 inches today for Chicago, Milwaukee, Madison, and Minneapolis. An inch or two will fall tomorrow in the Mid-Atlantic as well. More for you Monday!
Strong winds will bring some risk of localized power outages across the Central U.S. and increased fire danger in the Southern Plains as a fall storm winds up today.
Tropical update: Nada
With Sean back down to tropical depression status, there’s not a whole lot else to discuss for the next few days. I would not be shocked to see the low pressure system develop that’s presently bringing rain and locally gusty winds to the coastal Southeast. A couple tornadoes were reported earlier this morning near Tampa, and there are a couple tornado warnings ongoing as of this writing. All this will race east across the Atlantic, however, and poses no further risk to land as it exits.
Rain will exit the Southeast today, but not before leading to some severe weather in Florida. (College of DuPage)
There is some potential for another lower-end Cabo Verde type system in 5 to 7 days, but at this point between that and a likely quiet Caribbean for a bit, there’s no reason to sweat anything out on land.
A wind-ripped Thursday in the Central U.S. brings some fire danger and severe weather
Wind is the story today for the U.S., with a deepening low pressure system over the center of the country driving a pretty healthy wind event. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph or higher are likely from about South Dakota into western Nebraska, northeast Colorado, much of Kansas, northeast New Mexico, and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.
Wind gusts over 50 mph are possible anywhere you see orange on the map above, from eastern South Dakota south into parts of New Mexico and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. (Weather Bell)
We get a handful of these events per fall, winter, or spring so it’s not too unusual. But it may have impacts ranging from localized power outages to tree damage to wildfire risk. The “critical” area of fire danger risk today is from southwest Kansas, across the Panhandles into northeast New Mexico. The combination of drought, low humidity, and winds will combine to enhance that risk.
“Critical” fire weather danger is forecast today from northeast New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and up into Kansas. (NOAA SPC)
Wind advisories, high wind warnings, and red flag warnings are posted in many of these regions for today.
With a storm like this, you usually get some severe weather, and this may be the case today in Nebraska and Kansas in particular. There’s a modest tornado risk today but more likely, we’ll see hail or damaging winds take prime billing later today as the low pressure area works east. Tornado risks are highest in Nebraska.
A slight risk (level 2/5) for severe weather exists today across most of eastern Nebraska. (NOAA SPC)
A slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe weather is posted today. Heavy rain will also be possible, especially across South Dakota, where as much as 3 or 4 inches of rain may fall between Pierre and Sioux Falls. Enhanced precip may also occur in the Rapid City area and Black Hills, though a chunk of that will fall as snow.
As much as a foot or so of snow could fall in the Black Hills of South Dakota from this storm, but as the NWS graphic above notes, it’s complicated! (NWS Rapid City)
Maximum snow is expected northwest of Mt. Rushmore in the Black Hills, where as much as a foot or so is possible. Snow will also occur in the mountains of Colorado and Wyoming and in parts of northwest Nebraska.
The flood risk will shift east tomorrow, when Chicago, Milwaukee, and Madison all fall into a slight risk of excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4), as 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected. More on that tomorrow.
Hurricane Lidia will make landfall near Puerto Vallarta late this evening as a moderate hurricane before weakening and merging in with a bunch of other tropical moisture that will quickly transit the Gulf toward Florida.
Tropics: Lidia makes landfall in Mexico tonight, combines with other systems to bring rain to the Gulf & South
Hurricane Lidia will approach Mexico later this evening as it intensifies, likely making landfall on the coast very near Puerto Vallarta.
A complex pattern in the Pacific and Gulf will feature Invest 93L (unlikely to develop) lifting north and then northeast, the remnants of Tropical Storm Max combining with that, and eventually Hurricane Lidia’s remnants streaking in a similar direction, close behind. (Weathernerds.org)
Lidia will bring heavy rain in Jalisco, southern Sinaloa, and Nayarit in Mexico and storm surge to areas south of where it comes ashore. Hurricane Warnings are in effect on the coast of Mexico from Playa Perula to Escuinapa. The hurricane-force winds only extend out about 25 miles, so the worst wind will be felt near the eventual landfall point not far from Puerto Vallarta. Lidia will rapidly weaken once inland in Mexico, but its remnant circulation and moisture will get drawn into a conglomerate of systems in the western Gulf of Mexico that will rocket east toward Florida.
Hurricane Lidia will make landfall near Puerto Vallarta before rapidly weakening once inland. (NOAA NHC)
This mashup includes Invest 93L in the Bay of Campeche and the remnants of Tropical Storm Max which made landfall yesterday. As this family of outcasts speeds east across the Gulf Wednesday, it will bring a burst of rainfall from South Texas, into the open Gulf, and across extreme southeast Louisiana and Florida.
Rainfall from the tropical trio through Friday morning will be highest offshore, but 1-3″ will be likely in North Florida, South Georgia, southeast Louisiana, and perhaps on the coast of Alabama or Mississippi (Pivotal Weather)
This rain looks fairly manageable overall, with about 1 to 3 inches in the Rio Grande Valley and Corpus Christi areas, New Orleans, much of the Florida Panhandle, and the southern half of Georgia. Isolated areas will see more. There will also likely be a pretty sharp gradient on the northern fringe of this precipitation that perhaps limits amounts a bit in San Antonio, Houston, Baton Rouge, Montgomery, and Atlanta.
Rain totals in Texas will be highest south of Corpus Christi. (Pivotal Weather)
Aside from this sloppiness, the Atlantic tropics are quiet in terms of land impacts. Invest 92L continues to look like a late season Cabo Verde system, likely to develop over the next few days. But it will not impact land. There’s a little bit of model percolation in the Caribbean in about 10 to 12 days, but I am not ready to jump aboard that train just yet.
Central & Eastern U.S. storm to bring heavy rain and a whole lotta wind late this week
I presume most of the country’s attention with respect to weather late this week will be on the significant storm that is going to develop tomorrow night into Thursday over the Central Plains. This storm will bring a variety of weather to much of the northern half of the country.
Rainfall/flooding
In terms of rain, we’re looking at a slight chance of flash flooding on Thursday from northern Nebraska and southeast South Dakota into northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. On Friday, that expands east to include Chicago, Madison, and Milwaukee east to western Michigan.
Thursday and Friday will see a slight chance (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall in the Plains and Midwest, which will expand into Pennsylvania and New Jersey on Saturday. (NOAA WPC)
By Saturday, that will move toward the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England, including, again, New York City.
7-day national rain totals show 1 to 4 inches from the tropical moisture in the Gulf and another 1 to 4 inches from Nebraska and South Dakota to Michigan, as well as centered on New Jersey. (Pivotal Weather)
Expect about 1 to 4 inches from western Michigan west through Nebraska and South Dakota. Another 1 to 3 inches is possible in portions of eastern Pennsylvania and the New York City metro. Much of this region only needs an inch or two of rain over 6 to 12 hours to get flash flooding started. So I would expect to see flood watches get posted at some point in many areas.
Severe weather
With a powerful area of low pressure developing on the Plains, you almost always get some kind of severe weather. For Thursday that will probably be in Kansas and southeast Nebraska. On Friday that potential may moderate some as the storm comes east, but I still wouldn’t be shocked to see some reports of severe weather.
Thursday’s severe weather forecast calls for a slight (level 2 of 5) risk from about Kansas City north and west, with hail and strong winds being the main concerns. (NOAA SPC)
Strong winds and large hail are probably the main concerns, along with a non-zero tornado risk. There will be only a moderate amount of warm, moist Gulf air available so that may cap this event a little bit. Either way, expect to see (and hear) rumblings about that this week.
Strong winds
Expect to see a wide swath of 30 to 50 mph wind gusts across Wyoming, the Central Plains, and the Midwest as this storm marches east. The strongest winds will probably be in the Texas Panhandle, western Kansas and Nebraska, and portions of South Dakota.
Forecast wind gusts may exceed 40 or 50 mph with this storm over a wide swath of the Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. (Weather Bell)
Strong winds will march east as well, but they will probably ease up a bit once to the Ohio Valley and East.
Snow
Lest we ignore the powder! Snow will likely fall in Colorado and Wyoming (and perhaps Utah) as this system unfolds. Some snow may even fall in the Black Hills as well. Winter Storm Watches are already posted for a number of higher elevation spots from Wyoming into western South Dakota.
It’s getting to be that time of year! We’ll have more on this for you through the rest of the week.
