Matt Lanza

One-sentence summary

We continue to see the potential of a system developing in the open Atlantic heading into next week, but it will likely struggle through Monday or Tuesday and no land is threatened by this system.

Happening now: Tropical wave in the Atlantic no better organized today

Today’s National Hurricane Center outlook shows the wave in the Atlantic as having 60 percent odds of developing now, up from 40 percent yesterday.

We are still a couple days away from this happening. If you look at satellite this morning, well, it’s not exactly organized, although it’s a lot more active looking than it has been the last couple days.

Over the next 2 to 3 days, this wave should slowly organize. It will continue west-northwest and eventually turn more northwest and then north before getting to the islands. One very significant inhibiting factor for this system will likely be wind shear, which is extremely strong ahead of the wave and is expected to remain strong into this weekend.

Wind shear will probably act to limit the system’s initial development through Monday. By the time the shear relaxes, the disturbance should be comfortably out at sea and away from land.

In summary, very, very slow organization is possible through Monday, but the wave will also begin to turn out to sea so that when it does have breathing room to possibly organize further it will be safely away from land.

Elsewhere, the NHC did re-tag the old Invest 95L in the far western Caribbean (heading toward the Pacific) and the upper level disturbance near Florida again this morning, but odds of any development are near zero at this time.

The medium range (days 6 to 10): Nothing new

For now, everything seems quiet looking next week. We’ll watch to see that open Atlantic wave likely turn north and northeast out to sea. Aside from that one system, there’s nothing we see on our radar that has much potential. We’re likely entering a brief period of calm now.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): The calm before the storms, maybe

We start to scour the ensemble members this time of year for hints of activity. Remember that ensembles are just models run roughly 30 (GFS) to 50 (Euro) different times with initialization tweaks to give us a realistic spread in outcomes. As a meteorologist, you’re looking for any sort of hint of activity within that spread to try to hone in on something. We see nothing notable right now. As noted in yesterday’s post, we do expect things to pick up some around the 10th or so of August. That thinking has not changed.

We may post briefly to update the Atlantic system this weekend. On Monday, we’ll update the status of the season to date and talk more about early August.

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One-sentence summary

The odds of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave developing have increased to 40 percent today, but while it’s worth watching (especially in Bermuda), for now it seems most likely to turn away from the Caribbean and America.

Happening now: We’re still a few days away from the next Atlantic wave’s development window

If I showed you a satellite image of the Atlantic this morning, and I asked you to identify the area you would be most interested in monitoring for tropical development, I would assume that you’d pick the one near Florida.

While that is certainly beefy looking, it’s being entirely driven by an upper-level low, not a surface-based system. Tropical development is unlikely to nil in that case. Though, this will hopefully do something to temper the outrageously warm water temperatures surrounding Florida right now. That said, modeling is actually latching onto the tropical wave located this morning around 30°W longitude. If we look at that on satellite, we’re probably all giving it the Larry David treatment.

But! As we go through the next few days, this area is expected to consolidate some and become a little better organized. It will track generally west or west-northwest. Modeling insists it could develop. There is actually very good agreement between the GFS and European operational models and their ensembles (which are 30 to 50 different runs of the model with various initial tweaks) that this will develop, albeit not in a huge way. That aside, this is arguably the best agreement we’ve seen since Don formed. In my estimation, models have tended to be rather aggressive with development in the main development region (MDR) and Caribbean this year. So, while odds of development are on the increase and there’s good model agreement on this, we’ll see. Model odds of development over the next week are probably closer to 80 or 90 percent, but given recent struggles, the NHC estimate of 40 percent seems much more realistic to me.

Anyway, development of this system will likely be slow as it comes westward over the next 3 to 5 days.

The medium range (days 6 to 10): That tropical wave (should) swim with the fishes

One other thing that the models are in good agreement on right now is that whatever happens with this tropical wave, it is likely to turn northwest and north and eventually out to sea, missing the Caribbean and the U.S. Never say never, but that’s comforting for now. I would argue that there’s good reason to watch this if you are in Bermuda though just in case.

Beyond this wave, there’s nothing terribly exciting to focus on in the tropics through day ten.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): All good for now

Quite frankly, it’s almost disturbingly quiet on the models right now out in the extended range. It does seem like we’re entering a briefly hostile background period in the Atlantic beginning around the first day of August. This is due to background activity associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and convectively coupled Kelvin waves. I won’t get into the heavy details here, but you can read and learn about the MJO and hurricanes and convectively coupled Kelvin waves here. Eric Blake at the NHC is a great forecaster, and this presentation that the WMO has online is really useful. All that to say that I would suspect that things pick back up again after August 10th or so.

One-sentence summary

Invest 95L is running out of time to do much, but in addition to future waves off Africa, we are keeping an eye on another feature northeast of the Bahamas that got outlined for possible development late yesterday by the National Hurricane Center.

Happening now: Southwest Atlantic is the hot spot

Just to tie a ribbon on Invest 95L (for now at least), the NHC has dropped 7-day odds of development to 10 percent. Surely not zero, but getting closer. This morning, 95L is producing showers and thunderstorms in the Lesser Antilles. The Caribbean is loaded with wind shear right now, so it seems fair to say that 95L has a steep uphill battle ahead.

Meanwhile, northeast of the Bahamas, there’s a rather beefy area of thunderstorms.

While the NHC only gives it about a 20 percent chance of development over the next 5 to 7 days, it certainly is worth keeping an eye on as it comes west. Right now, it has no real surface reflection, so despite looking a bit menacing on satellite, this is nowhere near ready to go. Wind shear may be a serious mitigating factor that keeps this thing from getting going, but dry air should not be a serious factor.

It’s moving across a region of warm water temperatures, right around 85 to 86 degrees, which will get warmer closer to the U.S. coast. So, it has an opportunity here. Not to say that this has a great chance to develop significantly (and you can see from the model images above that neither the GFS or the Euro really tighten this one up at all), but it’s an item that stands out more today than previously. Regardless, it appears showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase Friday or this weekend in Florida. There is some chance this could make it into the Gulf, but that also remains to be seen. So we’ll keep an eye on it into the end of the week.

The medium range (days 6 to 10): Still watching off Africa

Our main medium range area to watch continues to be off Africa, as we watch waves emerge off the continent. I still think the next emergent wave has the best chance to emerge from the morass as the system to watch.

But exactly what comes of this stuff remains to be seen. The overall background state of the Atlantic should begin to become a good bit more hospitable to systems this weekend and next week. In other words, there should be a general reduction in shear and dry air. This guarantees nothing, but it does seem to suggest that something out of these emerging waves is possible. Modeling continues to bounce around and tells us nothing of much value right now, except that chances of development from this area are not zero.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Just keep watching

We’ve covered most of the bases today in the first couple sections. Anything beyond day 10 would likely come from those items, so we’ll keep watch and keep you posted.

One-sentence summary

Invest 95L had a moment where it looked like it might become an interesting feature, but that has since faded so our attention will focus to the next wave to emerge off Africa.

Happening now: Invest 95L struggles & Don finally exits

At one point by Friday evening, the 7-day odds of Invest 95L developing had bumped up to as high as I think 70 percent? The odds were considered “high.” That is down to 20 percent this morning. Why? Invest 95L was unable to hold thunderstorms together enough to stay shielded from the dry air and shear that surround it. Back in Friday’s post, we mentioned that 95L would basically have to insulate itself from dry air to have a chance. The 30 knots of shear around it aren’t helping either.

Modeling has pulled back a ton on development chances with 95L since last week, and given the hurdles noted above, it will be tough for 95L to get its act together. That said, it will still deliver areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms to the Lesser Antilles, especially south of about Dominica and Martinique. But as far as organized tropical activity is concerned, it does not appear that 95L will be the one to make it so.

Meanwhile, to the north, Tropical Storm Don briefly became the season’s first hurricane over the weekend. It has since fizzled, and it will become an “extratropical” storm later today. Basically, it’s driven by cooler weather processes and looks more like a nor’easter than a tropical storm.

Don is the type of storm we hope we see much of this season: Out at sea, mostly harmless to any land, and working to cool ocean waters a bit. Fare thee well, Don.

The medium range (days 6 to 10): More action off Africa to come

So what’s next? For that, let us again look at Africa.

Right now, the next wave up does not appear to have much to it, and model support is also lacking as it comes west. But the wave over Africa this morning will emerge into the Atlantic by midweek. Both the GFS and European models suggest this one has a chance to develop, with the GFS being extremely bullish and the Euro being extremely modest, a trend the Euro has won more often than not this season thus far. Ensemble support is moderate for this as well, with the European ensemble actually a little more excited about development odds than the GFS ensemble, a trend that the GFS ensemble seems to have won more often than not so far this season. Remember, ensembles differ from operational models because they are run 30 to 50 different times with small tweaks in their initial snapshots to help produce more “spread” to give us a better view on possible outcomes.

Regardless of what the models specifically say, it appears this will be the next area to watch heading into the weekend and next week. It seems that steering currents would suggest that anything developing would stay out at sea, but it’s far too early to say so with any conviction. For now, we will watch and wait.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Babysitter’s club

We currently don’t see any real specific concerns in the long range, with the exception of this wave emerging off Africa, as discussed above. The main theme heading into early August will likely just be to keep babysitting this stuff. We aren’t overly impressed with anything right now, but given the time of year and water temperatures out there, it makes a lot of sense to keep tabs on everything.