Flooding continues to be this summer’s story, and more of it seems likely in Louisiana by late week

In brief: More flooding, this time in New Jersey in particular, as well as Florida. The next serious flooding event may unfold thanks to Invest 93L later this week in Louisiana.

Note: Most of the data in these posts originates from NOAA and NWS. Many of the taxpayer-funded forecasting tools described below come from NOAA-led research from research institutes that will have their funding eliminated in the current proposed 2026 budget. Access to these tools to inform and protect lives and property would not be possible without NOAA’s work and continuous research efforts.

Another round of flooding

First of all, if you think this year has been busy in terms of flooding, it has. Let’s just look at the Southeast as an example, since we’re going to focus a lot there today. So far, over 650 flash flood warnings have been issued in 2025 for the Southeastern U.S. If the year ended today, it would not be near last place for most flash flood warnings in a year.

Accumulated flash flood warnings by year (for the entire year) for the Southeast. (Iowa State Mesonet)

In the South-Central part of the country, it’s not a whole lot different. We’re well over 1,000 warnings on the year for flooding.

South-Central U.S. flash flood warnings by year. (Iowa State Mesonet)

2025 is off to a crazy start in terms of flooding around the country. (Editor’s note: I wrote this last night, but Michael Lowry has a very good synopsis on the flooding warnings in context here)

We saw more of it yesterday, this time in the New York City metro area and down in Florida.

In northern New Jersey, rainfall totals probably came close to 7 inches in spots right near the Watchung Ridge up in western Union and northeast Somerset Counties.

Radar estimated rainfall bullseye of 6 to 7 inches right over Plainfield, NJ yesterday. (NOAA NSSL)

This type of rain has about a 2 to 3 percent chance of occurring in any given year in this location. Numerous reports of flooding were received in parts of New Jersey, as well as in New York City, as rainfall rates of around 2 inches or more per hour overwhelmed drainage systems. Heavy rain also fell west in Pennsylvania, west of Scranton-Wilkes Barre, with about 1 to 2 percent probabilities of those totals occurring in any given year. A secondary area occurred near Lancaster, PA as well.

South into Florida, much of the state saw rain yesterday, but the Plant City and Lakeland areas were especially hard hit. Rain totals of as much as 6 to 10 inches occurred just southwest of Lakeland, with flooding reported there as well.

Rain in Florida was widespread, but very isolated pockets saw extremely high totals, such as in Plant City. (NOAA NSSL)

Just another day in this seemingly frenetic summer.

Tropical Disturbance: Invest 93L

There’s so much to talk about today in terms of all sorts of things, but we will focus first on the potential for a tropical system in the Gulf. Currently, Invest 93L is moving onto the Florida Peninsula. If we’re really being honest, it ain’t much to look at today.

Invest 93L is moving onto the Florida Peninsula this morning. (Weathernerds.org)

Once into the Gulf it will encounter both very warm sea-surface temperatures and slightly less wind shear. This will allow it to begin to get its bearings and make an effort to organize. Currently, the NHC is giving it about a 40 percent chance of development the next couple days as it moves west across the northern Gulf. Obviously, you see something in the northern Gulf, and it’s instinctive to get a little worked up. This will probably have limited time over water, and the proximity to land is likely going to work against it some. There’s also likely to be some drier air in play here. All this to say that it would seem that the ceiling on this system is fairly low in terms of intensity.

Tropical models are generally focused on Louisiana for the track of Invest 93L. (Tropical Tidbits)

In terms of the track, it is likely to work west across the Gulf generally toward Louisiana. A weaker, more disorganized system would probably work inland west of New Orleans. A stronger system, for whatever reason, may come ashore farther east. The next name on the storm list is Dexter.

But given the low ceiling, I think it’s important to focus on the rainfall risk here.

Rainfall risk on Gulf Coast

Gulf systems this time of year typically have characteristics that make them very sloppy, very lopsided, and very wet. In other words, they’re often a flooding threat. And this appears to be the case here as well.

The 7-day rainfall forecast for Louisiana and the Gulf Coast of Mississippi shows upwards of 4 to 8 inches of rain or more possible. (Pivotal Weather)

The current rain forecasts show upward of 4 to 8 inches of rain across much of Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. Heavy rain will also extend east into coastal Alabama and the Panhandle of Florida as well. In fact, there is already a moderate risk of flash flooding (3/4) for day 4 in Louisiana (Friday).

A moderate risk of flash flooding exists for Acadiana on Friday (NOAA WPC)

The focus of the flooding risk will be on Acadiana and the Atchafalaya Basin. This includes both Baton Rouge and Lafayette. It’s still a bit early to focus on high-end risks of how much rain could fall, but I would keep a very close eye on the forecast between Beaumont and Baton Rouge from the flooding and heavy rain risk point of view.

On the east side of 93L, a very warm and humid air mass will lead to hot and uncomfortable weather later this week up the East Coast. Numerous record warm low temperatures are at risk of being broken.

Numerous record warm lows are at risk on Thursday morning. (NOAA WPC)

We’ll have more tomorrow morning or later today if anything significant changes.

A low-end tropical system may develop in the northern Gulf this week

In brief: A tropical disturbance will move into the northeastern Gulf a little less than two days from now. Thereafter it should track westward. The most probable outcome is a moderate disturbance moving into Louisiana later this week, with the potential for heavy rainfall. But we will continue to watch things closely to see how the system evolves.

This weekend brought more flooding across parts of the United States. On Saturday evening the Davenport, Iowa area dealt with several inches of rain that flooded some homes and submerged vehicles. By Sunday the flood risk returned to Texas, where a large part of the Texas Hill Country saw a second round of heavy storms, including the previously hard hit Kerrville area. This produced flash flood warnings along and east of Interstate 35, but the strongest of the storms have now moved off to the southwest. Also this weekend there was a devastating fire on the North Rim of the Grand Canyon, which destroyed the historic Grand Canyon Lodge. So all in all, not ideal.

Gulf disturbance

After all of this, we are turning our attention to the tropics this morning. We have been mentioning the possibility of a tropical system developing this week in the Northern Gulf of Mexico for several days, and the National Hurricane Center has now begun highlighting the possibility. As of 8 am ET on Monday, forecasters there give the system a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm this week.

Tropical outlook from the National Hurricane Center.

The remnants of a front, currently in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Georgia, should move across Florida over the next day or two, and into the northeastern Gulf. Once there, conditions could support the development of this area of low pressure into a depression or tropical storm that would continue moving generally to the west.

As to what happens after this, there is not great clarity in the model guidance. The background conditions, including sea surface temperatures and wind shear, are somewhat favorable for organization and intensification. But this is not an ideal situation, and the system is likely to remain fairly close to land. So we don’t expect this to explode over the deep and warm waters of the Gulf. Eventually it should move toward Louisiana.

One outlier model that appears to be most bullish on the system is the Germany based ICON, which brings a moderate tropical storm toward southern Louisiana by Thursday morning (shown below). Some people may remember that the ICON model is one of the outliers that correctly predicted Hurricane Beryl would impact Texas about a year ago, so we are not completely dismissing it. However, most of our other guidance does not develop a tropical storm, but rather keeps this at a disturbance or a depression level.

So in terms of intensification what we can say right now is that we don’t anticipate a significant wind storm. We cannot rule it out, but high winds and storm surge are not the main talking point. Rather, rainfall potential is.

Precipitation outlook

As this system tracks across the northern Gulf of Mexico, it is likely to bring increased rainfall chances to the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and Mississippi, and especially southern Louisiana. For now, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has that area, including New Orleans, under a “slight risk” of excessive rainfall next Thursday (shown below) and Friday.

Excessive rain outlook for Thursday. (NOAA)

That’s a good starting point, but depending on the evolution of this system that estimate may need to be bumped up in a day or two. The bottom line is that the second half of this week could bring a significant amount of rainfall into Louisiana. Right now we can only monitor the risk, rather than provide a definitive forecast. Hopefully that changes in a day or two.

As for areas further west, including Texas, we cannot rule out impacts at this time. However, none of our reliable guidance shows this system (or its heavy rainfall) tracking far enough to the west to bring heavy rains or winds to Texas. But it is something we will continue to watch.

More flooding, this time in Iowa, as heavy rain risk shifts back to the Southern Plains

In brief: The Davenport, Iowa area dealt with some serious flooding last night. Today’s risk shifts back to Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. The tropics remain quiet, but Florida should see a fair bit of rain next week as a tropical disturbance emerges in the Gulf. And we’ve got some good articles to share on the complexities involved in the Texas flooding tragedy.

Davenport flooding

The latest in an absolute spate of flash flood emergencies occurred yesterday in Davenport, Iowa. This was caused by a line of slow-moving thunderstorms that dumped 2 to 4 inches on the Iowa side of the Quad Cities. This brought totals for the day up to about 5 inches in spots.

Radar rainfall estimates show a wide swath of 2 to 4 inches since Friday morning across the Iowa side of the Mississippi River near Davenport. (NOAA NSSL)

Numerous instances of cars submerged in water and even some structures flooding occurred with the storms. Precipitable water, or how much moisture is actually available in the atmosphere was rather high across the Midwest yesterday evening, as shown from the European model’s output yesterday.

Precipitable water, or PWATs were quite high across much of the Midwest yesterday, with a local maximum from the Thumb of Michigan back west to Iowa. (Pivotal Weather)

Officially, south of Davenport, the near upper air sounding in Lincoln, Illinois showed a PWAT of 1.77 inches, which is in the 90th percentile of days. For Davenport, those PWATS were probably closer to the 95th percentile. In other words, another day of some ultra rich moisture that the atmosphere tapped into and produced damaging flooding. Models did an ok job on this event, though the HRRR misplaced the bullseye too far northwest, whereas the HREF model was a little too aggressive and to the east.

For those keeping track, this was the 12th reported flash flood emergency this month across the country. Most obviously occurred in Texas, but there have also been emergencies reported in New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and in Iowa (and Illinois).

Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico flooding chances

Next, we focus back on Texas and the southern Plains. Another round of scattered storms may produce locally heavy rainfall today, including for Hill Country. The area is highlighted in a slight risk (2/4) of flooding rains today. This also includes much of Oklahoma and for the burn scars in New Mexico, including Ruidoso.

A slight risk (2/4) for flooding is in place for Hill Country, much of north-central Texas, and Oklahoma today. (NOAA WPC)

Anywhere from 1 to 3 inches is possible through today, with localized “lollipop” totals of 3 to 6 inches in any given location also possible. The focus of the highest chances of those higher totals occurring seems to be in Oklahoma and north of DFW Metroplex today. However, chances are not zero between Abilene, San Angelo, and areas west of Kerrville.

HREF model probability matched mean product, highlighting the Red River Valley for potentially higher rain totals today, as well as a couple pockets from I-10 west of Kerrville through San Angelo and Abilene. (NOAA SPC)

Hopefully in any of today’s cases, flooding will be of the sub-emergency sort. The Ruidoso area doesn’t stand out in the modeling today, but given the ultra-high sensitivity of soil there, it would not take much to trigger flash flooding.

Tropics

While the Atlantic is forecast to remain quiet over the next week, I would not be shocked to see a risk area drawn over the northeast Gulf at some point this weekend. Chances are probably 10 percent right now, if that, but there’s enough noise there to at least watch for the potential of a low-end system.

The 7-day rain forecast over the northeast Gulf Coast. (Pivotal Weather)

Rain totals of 2 to 5 inches are forecast for the Florida Peninsula and Panhandle coast, back into Mississippi and Alabama. Some localized flooding is possible, but obviously we’ll continue to keep tabs on the potential for anything more organized off the coast here.

More questions in the wake of Texas flooding

I don’t have a lot to write about here today, but I do want to point you to a couple notable articles this morning. To get a good perspective on what went wrong in Texas, the emergency management piece is absolutely critical to understand. Most people know emergency management exists. Many people don’t know what it does. Everyone, however, has an opinion of FEMA it seems.

First, read this excellent article about the warning timeline and the emergency management relationship and response from my colleague and friend Alan Gerard who writes the excellent Balanced Weather Substack.

Then, read his follow up piece here.

This stuff is complicated. It’s never a black and white issue, and the gray area is gigantic and broken into various shades of gray. But I feel like Alan’s posts there give you a good understanding of the interplay between emergency managers and the weather. Alan is a former NOAA/NWS employee who knows more than his share of how the two disciplines engage operationally.

Lastly, Chron.com in Houston published an excellent piece about the debate that occurred in Kerr County back in 2021. Monday morning quarterbacking is easy, but this raises serious, serious questions about what happens when you politicize to an extreme level certain elements of disaster and mitigation. It’s a cautionary tale that a number of vulnerable communities engaged in pre-2025. I’ve learned a lot about disasters as a meteorologist, and to me it makes absolutely no sense to reject federal money for disaster mitigation projects in a world where disasters are becoming more common. That money will go elsewhere instead. Hyper-politicization can literally harm communities. It’s time to start looking at this stuff more clear-eyed.

We will probably take tomorrow off and come back with a fresh post Monday. Thanks again to all our subscribers, new and old. It helps continue to propel us forward and upwards.

An updated hurricane season forecast, heavy rains in the Midwest, and unseasonable heat in the West

In brief: Today’s update provides an overview of the dusty tropics and a look at a new seasonal forecast from Colorado State University. We also dig a little deeper into storms today in the Midwest, and the potential for excessive heat in the West.

Hi everyone, Eric Berger here. As you probably know Matt does the majority of forecasting on The Eyewall but I’m here to back him up, and so I pinch hit occasionally. This is the first time I’ve written for the site since we have moved our newsletter over to Substack, and I just wanted to thank everyone who has signed up. The response so far has been tremendous, and we are already making plans to improve The Eyewall as a result. But for now we are going to focus on hurricane season, heavy rains, and heat in today’s outlook.

The tropics

Let’s start in the tropics where, happily, everything is quiet all the way from the Central Pacific Ocean to the Eastern Atlantic. This is not all that abnormal for the first half of July, but it is nonetheless welcome. Looking ahead, due to a variety of factors including a new and fairly large plume of dust moving off the Sahara into the Atlantic, we think things will remain fairly quiet for at least a few more days—and hopefully more!

This optical thickness forecast offers a nice visualization of dust moving off Africa early next week. (Weather Bell)

In this interim period of quiescence I wanted to take a peek at the updated seasonal hurricane forecast from Phil Klotzbach and his team at Colorado State University. As you can see in the chart below, the team has slightly lowered their outlook in terms of named storms and hurricanes, and reduced the overall forecast for Accumulated Cyclone Energy by 10 percent. This is only a slight modification, and given the inherent error within seasonal forecasts such a change does not mean a whole lot. But in the main, you’d rather be trending downward in seasonal activity than upward, no?

As for why the Klotzbach team made the change, here’s what they wrote in their abstract: “We have decreased our forecast slightly and now call for a slightly above-normal 2025 Atlantic basin hurricane season. The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear. High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons.”

Midwest rains

Areas of the upper Midwest, including parts of Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Illinois will be subject to heavy rainfall on Friday and Friday night. In the big picture we see a large trough over the Central Plains that will be supportive of storms. Such complexes of thunderstorms, known as mesoscale convective systems, will be possible from late morning through the early evening hours. Most likely we will see a line of storms develop over Iowa and Wisconsin before moving southward into Missouri and Illinois.

From an impact standpoint I don’t believe these will be too serious. However, given the setup, some modest flooding is possible later today where the stronger storms set up. This forecast from the Weather Prediction Center provides an idea of where the greatest risk of heavy rainfall will come later today. By late evening the flood risk should be diminishing for the Midwest.

Yellow areas have a “slight risk” of excessive rainfall and flash flooding today and this evening. (NOAA)

Sizzling in the west

Much of the Western United States will see high temperatures this weekend above 100 degrees. For some areas in Arizona and Southern California, this is nothing new. But the highs for a broad swath of northern California, Oregon, Washington state, and elsewhere in the west will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal. This heat is due to a building dome of high pressure that will affect much of the West through Sunday. The heat should break by Monday for much of the region.

However, the forecast for the Northwest turns even more extreme next week. Areas near Portland and Seattle could see highs in the mid- to upper-90s on Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure rebounds. There is still some uncertainty in the upper-level pattern that may moderate temperatures slightly. But for these areas this is very high heat, and an Extreme Heat Watch is in place for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

Maximum temperature forecast for next Wednesday. (Pivotal Weather)

That’s all for us today. We hope everyone has a great weekend.