We continue to expect a fairly quiet 10 days ahead.
Happening now: Gulf busy, but not organized
Late yesterday, the Gulf of Mexico started to do some Gulf of Mexico things with a weak circulation trying to show up off the coast of Mexico or South Texas. Today that remains disorganized, albeit agitated.
Disorganized tropical moisture is making an appearance in the western Gulf of Mexico, bringing rain to parts of Texas. (Weathernerds.org)
Some eagle-eyed readers may recall the GFS operational model insisting that something would develop in the Gulf about 10 days ago. As is often the case, it was incorrect but had some ideas you could take from what it showed.
I’m mainly writing about this because there is not much else to discuss today. But it’s illustrative! Nothing has come of this one, of course. There has not been any real risk anything would. It will continue to produce scattered thunderstorms over coastal Mexico and Texas today and shift northward tomorrow. But it does underscore how we always like to watch the Gulf during hurricane season. All it takes is one batch of poorly forecast thunderstorms to lead to a surprise outcome. Thankfully, this won’t be it. But if we say “Still, it’s a good idea to keep tabs on the Gulf,” we aren’t just doing it to entertain ourselves!
The medium-range (days 6-10): Nothing
It’s quiet.
It won’t stay this quiet forever, so let’s enjoy the calm.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Nothing, but in purple
It looks as if this pattern of high shear, dry air, and minimal activity will continue deep into July. Right now, we don’t see anything of note out there in the models.
Modeling is on board with a mainly quiet stretch over the next two weeks. A lack of many lines or “L’s” in the tropics on this map indicates that the models are not bullish on any organized systems. (Weathernerds.org)
If we look at the GFS ensemble, which is a tweaked version of the GFS model run over 30 times, it seems quiet for the next two weeks. We can’t even really buy many rogue ensemble members right now that spit out anything of significance. That’s good news for us all.
Tomorrow, we’ll fill the void with a few nuggets about July history in the Atlantic basin.
As we went through the Fourth of July holiday all of the fireworks were in the sky, rather than in the tropics.
Happening now: Nothing in the Atlantic
The Atlantic remains quiet, and it should stay that way for at least the remainder of this week if not beyond.
The Eastern Pacific has also quieted down with the dissipation of two hurricanes, Adrian and Beatriz, in recent days. The potential remains for some additional development this week to the south of the Western coast of Mexico, but nothing that appears to be an imminent threat to land. This is something we’ll be tracking later this week, however.
Tropical Outlook for the Eastern Pacific Basin over the next seven days. (National Hurricane Center)
I also want to call attention to an excellent post published this week on Michael Lowry’s Substack that is tracking the influence of El Niño on Atlantic hurricane activity so far. This summer we’ve seen a strong El Niño develop in the tropical Pacific, where sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal. Typically this pattern is associated with higher wind shear in the Atlantic. The bottom line is that wind shear does appear to be ramping up across the Atlantic basin as we get deeper into July, and this is likely to tamp down on tropical activity at least into the near term.
Current wind shear levels in the Atlantic. (CIMSS/The Eyewall)
I am hopeful that this wind shear will generally persist into August and September, when it would counteract the effect of extremely warm seas in the Atlantic that will otherwise be favorable to tropical storm activity.
The medium-range (days 6-10): Moisture but no swirls
Much of the immediate Gulf coast will see rain showers this week as tropical moisture surges inland, but this low pressure is unlikely to develop into anything of note. Another area to watch, potentially, is the southern extremity of the Caribbean Sea. But this is nothing to get too excited about, either.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): All remains quiet
As of now, there doesn’t seem to be anything of note in the Atlantic basin for the day 10 or later period. July often sees a lull in activity, and that appears to be what is happening now. I’m happy to have it.
We are all clear for the foreseeable future in the Atlantic!
Happening now: The Atlantic is sheared and the Gulf is rather dry
A one-two punch of factors in addition to climatology is inhibiting tropical development across the Atlantic basin at the moment. Across most of the ocean, you have wind shear. That is also present in the Caribbean today. Wind shear acts to minimize tropical system organization in most cases.
Wind shear is pretty widespread across the Atlantic basin today, with the exception of maybe the Gulf, though even there it’s not minimal. (Tropical Tidbits)
The Gulf? Not a ton of shear! However, the Gulf is loaded up with dry air right now, so any development would be hindered substantially by that. There will be moisture reloading into the Gulf this week, but nothing organized should come from that occurring.
Dry air is prevalent in the Gulf right now, though that will shift this week. But it is also widespread across the Atlantic. (Tropical Tidbits)
These factors are helping to keep any chance at activity in the Atlantic virtually non-existent this week.
The medium-range (days 6 to 10): Shear and dry air continue
The combination of wind shear and dry air will continue to likely impede any development in the Gulf, Caribbean, or Atlantic through day 10. The Pacific will likely continue to stay a bit busy.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Slumber party?
We continue to slumber in the Atlantic. The GFS operational model, the 4-times daily deterministic guidance that often produces false alarm storms can’t even really latch on to much of anything out into fantasyland, so we’ll continue expecting a quiet outlook for now. I would not be entirely shocked to see something lower-end or close to home try to form in this period, but really, that’s me going on gut and some high-level model data. But it would seem we may be shaping up for a fairly quiet July.
July climatology & June review
Through the end of June, we have amassed a total of 9.8 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) units. ACE is a way to gauge individual storm or season intensity. Units are accumulated by summing how long a storm stays at a particular intensity. We can tally those up by storm or by season to get a number to compare to past storms or seasons. Unfortunately, ACE is not perfect, as you are merely looking at wind speed and duration of wind speed. Hurricanes and tropical storms are more complex than that alone. However, it counts for something.
ACE is the highest to this point in the season since 2012. With 98 percent of the season still in front of us (from an intensity standpoint), that does not mean much. (Data from NOAA)
9.8 units of ACE is actually pretty impressive through the end of June. We should be at about 2.5 units. However, that said, an average season has something on the order of 122 ACE units, which argues that we have about 97 to 98 percent of hurricane season still ahead of us from an intensity perspective. Junes are variable and never usually too crazy, and they don’t mean much in terms of what may be coming the rest of the season. June of 1934 was a particularly big month with 19.5 ACE units from one slow moving hurricane off Central America. That hurricane season ended up near average. 1886 was another pretty wild June with 20.6 ACE units when 3 hurricanes developed, one of them hitting Texas and the other two hitting Florida. That season was active. So again, don’t read into these numbers too much.
So what of July? Well, as you read above, we currently expect a mostly quiet month. We will see how that holds up. But, historically, July is often a quieter month in terms of landfall risks.
The highest density of July storms occurs off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, with tracks generally out to sea (NOAA NHC)
July is actually a bit quieter on net in parts of the Gulf of Mexico relative to June. There tends to be a little more action in the Caribbean and near the Lesser Antilles. But the main area of activity appears to be off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with storms that tend to form near the Carolinas and shoot out to sea. So if you want to know where you should be watching, there you go. It’s not really until August that things get going, and the second half of August at that. So, we still have some time. It’s as good a time as any to review your personal situation and prepare in case things do get active.
We will take tomorrow off in observance of Independence Day in the U.S., and we’ll be back with you on Wednesday morning!
We will close out June quieter than when it opened in the Atlantic, with no real sign of any meaningful tropical development ahead.
Happening now: Approaching two hurricanes in the Pacific
The Atlantic remains quiet, and it should stay that way through the U.S. holiday Monday and Tuesday.
Eastern Pacific
We continue with an active Pacific basin this morning. Expect to see Adrian begin to diminish over the next day or two as it moves westward out to sea. That said, it really popped overnight with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and a better looking structure. You can even see the eye today.
Adrian is moving out to sea, while Beatriz is gradually organizing near the coast of Mexico. (Weathernerds.org)
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Beatriz formed yesterday from the depression off Mexico. While Beatriz is not expected to become a particularly strong hurricane, it is rapidly intensifying into one and is likely to deliver impacts to the coast of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Beatriz should become a hurricane later today, and it will pass extremely close to the Mexican coast near Manzanillo. (NOAA NHC)
Hurricane warnings are posted for portions of the coast of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. Tropical Storm conditions should feature on either side of that warning band. On the current track, it will pass very close to Manzanillo, and a landfall cannot be ruled out somewhere on the coast near there. In addition to hurricane impacts on the coast of Mexico, rain totals are expected to tally up to several inches Beatriz comes northwest. Maximum totals in excess of 7 or 8 inches are possible, particularly in some of the coastal terrain between Oaxaca and Mazatlán, which could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
While Beatriz is not a gigantic storm, it is one that should be taken seriously on the coast of Mexico.
The medium-range (days 6-10): Wetting the Gulf
We have two areas of storminess that should develop later next week, but neither looks to be a particularly serious threat to develop. The first will be in the Gulf, where weakening high pressure over Texas will allow for moisture to increase and more frequent showers and storms to develop.
Rainfall totals through Friday of next week will likely increase in the western Gulf and for portions of Texas, Louisiana, and the Southeast as tropical moisture has an opportunity to return for a bit. (Pivotal Weather)
Again, no development is expected, but it’s always a good idea to keep tabs on the Gulf. Meanwhile, the second area continues to come in the far northern Atlantic, where a handful of ensemble members (individual runs of the models that help form a spread of possible outcomes) from the models show some potential development of something, be it extratropical or subtropical in nature. Nothing to worry about, but a curiosity to perhaps look for next week.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): All’s quiet
As of now, we don’t see anything of note in the Atlantic basin for the day 10 or later period. July will likely do normal July things.
