August 22, 2023 Outlook: Tropical Storm Harold arrives in Texas, while Franklin struggles in the Caribbean

One-sentence summary

Tropical Storm Harold will make landfall soon near South Padre Island, TX bringing rain and storms to Texas and Mexico, while Tropical Storm Franklin is struggling in the Caribbean but still aiming to bring heavy rain to Hispaniola.

Tropical Storm Harold

Tropical Depression 9 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Harold overnight. In a twist of minor irony, Harold will make landfall about 100 miles south of the storm whose name it replaced (Harvey) on the Texas coast in about 4 to 6 hours.

Tropical Storm Harold is just a few hours from making landfall, likely near South Padre Island. (NOAA NHC)

Harold is struggling a bit this morning in terms of organization. It has 45 mph maximum sustained winds, but it is clearly dealing with a hostile environment for quick organization. There have been wind gusts as high as 46 mph in Corpus Christi and south of there, mostly in heavier showers.

Wind gusts have been as strong as 46 mph in Corpus Christi and also in Kenedy County. (NOAA)

Showers and storms are pushing across South Texas this morning and into Mexico. Steadier rain is waiting offshore and looks as if it will push into Corpus Christi and points south for the later morning. The Valley may see more intermittent rain and thunderstorms.

Numerous thunderstorms are moving ashore from Harold from Matagorda Bay south into the Valley and Mexico. The steadier rain associated with Harold will move in near Corpus Christi and just south of there for the later morning and early afternoon. (RadarScope)

Within these thunderstorms, as occasionally occurs with tropical storms, isolated tornadoes are possible. Even some of the more intermittent and isolated showers well north of the center (toward El Campo or Victoria or just south of San Antonio) could produce an isolated, brief spin up. Something to be aware of in South Texas today.

Total rainfall will be on the order of 1 to 4 inches in South Texas, with the highest amounts just west of the Lower RGV back toward Laredo and into Mexico, where totals in isolated spots will approach 6 to 10 inches. Some of the rain may be heavy enough to produce isolated landslides in the mountains of Mexico, and flash flooding is possible in northern Coahuila and northern Nuevo Leon.

Rain will be welcome in South Texas, but in portions of northern Mexico it may produce some flash flooding or isolated mountain landslides. (NOAA)

Harold will quickly move inland today and tomorrow, and it should be into the Desert Southwest, aiding in some rainfall by tomorrow evening.

Tropical Storm Franklin

We’re all having a bit of a difficult time finding the exact location of Franklin’s center this morning, as it is presumed to be drifting northwest in the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Franklin is very disorganized this morning as it presumably drifts northwest in the Caribbean. (Tropical Tidbits)

If you look at the satellite image above, you can just see South America’s coast at the bottom and Puerto Rico at the top right. Hispaniola is in the middle near the top. The bright colors indicate deep, intense thunderstorm activity. If you look closely, you’ll notice that the main area of storms is actually being pushed south. There are also a bunch of lighter looking clouds moving left to right toward those storms. That indicates a whole lot of wind shear in the atmosphere. Tropical storms do not like wind shear, as it inhibits their development. Overall, Franklin is a moisture-laden but extremely disorganized tropical storm. It’s not clear that Franklin will get much better organized over the next couple days as it moves north toward Hispaniola.

Tropical Storm Franklin should move across the Dominican Republic tomorrow. It may find a slightly better environment for organization once it gets out into the open Atlantic. (NOAA NHC)

Overall, Franklin’s main concern for people will be heavy rainfall, capable of producing flooding over Hispaniola, particularly in the Dominican Republic. The models differ on exactly where the heaviest rain will be, but they all put it in the southern Dominican Republic. The greatest uncertainty may be in southeast Haiti, where models have waffled a bit between manageable rainfall and some higher totals closer to 10 inches.

Rain totals continue to look significant over the next 2 to 3 days in Hispaniola, with 10 inches or more possible in spots, which will lead to flash flooding and the potential for mudslides. (Weathernerds.org)

Flash flooding and mudslides are possible across the Dominican Republic as Franklin passes by. Beyond Hispaniola, Franklin’s future remains up in the air. Modeling suggests it will likely become a hurricane over the open Atlantic. Exactly how close this gets to Bermuda on its way north is to be determined. There are even a couple model solutions now suggesting that Franklin comes even a bit farther west toward the Southeast coast a bit. I don’t want to speculate too much on this, particularly given that it’s currently tough to even figure out where Franklin’s center is. Bermuda should monitor Franklin’s progress closely, and folks on the U.S. East Coast should at least keep tabs on what’s happening in a couple days.

Other Atlantic systems

Tropical Depression Gert, east of the islands should dissipate today. Tropical Storm Emily dissipated yesterday. That is still on the big board, however, with a 20 percent chance of redeveloping in the open Atlantic as it curves out to sea.

The next system, Invest 92L, continues to plod along west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development odds are down to 50 percent this morning, as a very slow organizational process may occur with this system. I think if it’s like most Atlantic systems this year, there’s something likely to act against it and who knows if it can truly get off the ground. We’ll see.

Invest 92L west of the Cabo Verde Islands will struggle to get off the ground in the next few days. (Weathernerds.org)

That covers all the noise out there right now.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Mired Gyre

The only other area really showing up at all on modeling as a development risk is off the Yucatan at some point on a few models (not the majority). We’ve discussed this whole gyre thing for several posts now, and maybe it comes to fruition, maybe it doesn’t. There’s enough signal in the model noise to say there’s a meaningful chance it could happen. But exactly what that looks like, I’m not sure. The overall background state of the Atlantic may actually become more hostile to tropical development in the early days of September, perhaps allowing us to catch our breath before the season finale and/or curtain call. The 2023 season to date has thus far been an example of quantity over quality which hopefully continues to be the case.

Tropical Depression 9 heading to Texas; Franklin a flood threat in Hispaniola

One-sentence summary

Tropical Depression 9 will move into South Texas, where tropical storm warnings are now posted, with gusty winds and heavy rain tomorrow.

TD, TD Number Nine

The National Hurricane Center upgraded Invest 91L in the Gulf to Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 this morning and since its potential has been realized, it is now Tropical Depression 9. Despite these changes, they were mostly expected, and not much has changed from our morning post in terms of expected impacts in Texas and Mexico.

Tropical Depression 9 is expected to become Tropical Storm Harold tonight before making landfall in far South Texas on Tuesday morning. (NOAA NHC)

Tropical Storm Warnings are posted along the Texas coast from the Rio Grande River north past Corpus Christi to Port O’Connor. A Tropical Storm Watch extends north from there to Sargent, TX. Looking at TD 9 on satellite this afternoon shows a whole lot of storms. I said it this morning, and I’ll say it again. We are fortunate that this thing has a limited amount of time left over water.

Tropical Depression 9 is rather well defined over the Gulf this afternoon, and slow strengthening overnight seems likely before it runs out of water to feed on. (Tropical Tidbits)

It has all the ingredients you need in place to blow up into a big storm, except the most critical thing: Time. The depression is racing west at 18 miles per hour, which means it will be ashore in Texas by Tuesday morning. Impacts will be minor to moderate in South Texas, with the potential for some gusty winds to tropical storm force, mainly south of Corpus Christi and offshore. Meanwhile, beneficial rain will fall in South Texas, where generally 1 to 3 inches will fall. There will likely be a few pockets of 4 to 5 inches in Brush Country and more into the mountains of Mexico.

Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches, with pockets of 4 or 5 inches are likely in much of far south Texas into Mexico. (NOAA)

Rainfall impacts will be minimal north of there, with Houston and San Antonio mostly missing out on anything. In fact, with a bit of a breeze in between the heat ridge to our north and TD 9 to our south, we may have a slightly enhanced risk of fire danger in parts of Texas again on Tuesday. When it fails, it fails hard.

In addition to heavy rain in South Texas, there is also a chance for isolated tornadoes, as is often the case with landfalling tropical systems. But the main issue to impact your daily life in that area will be heavy rain.

By Wednesday, TD 9 or Harold will make its way across Mexico, and a piece of its remnants may actually find its way into the monsoon flow in New Mexico and Arizona, which would bring some beneficial rain to those areas that mostly missed out on Hilary’s rainfall this past weekend. Rare is the tropical system that is mostly a net positive, but PTC 9 may very well be just that. We’ll keep an eye on rain totals tomorrow to make sure things stay under control.

Elsewhere: Franklin looks to be a big rainmaker in Hispaniola

Franklin’s forecast is mostly unchanged over the next couple days, except for rainfall. There was a bit of a healthy shift west in the highest forecast totals over the next 3 days, which brings the heaviest rainfall a little farther west in Hispaniola, closer to the Dominican Republic border with Haiti.

The heaviest rains from Franklin will fall on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic, but some model guidance has nudged the bullseye west a bit, closer to the border with Haiti. (Weathernerds.org)

Flooding is likely in the southern portion of Hispaniola. Obviously this area is occasionally susceptible to bad bouts of flooding, so hopefully preparations are being made to manage this as best as possible.

Franklin is still expected to come ashore as a tropical storm, though I suppose the odds of a low-end hurricane are not zero. Regardless, the impacts will be similar. As much as 10 to 15 inches of rain may fall on parts of Hispaniola, particularly in the southern Dominican Republic. There’s a good deal of uncertainty on what happens beyond Hispaniola as it lifts north into the Atlantic, something we’ll try to hone in more on in the coming days.

We’ll have more on both of these systems in the morning.

August 21, 2023 Outlook: Gulf tropical wave chugs west toward South Texas; TS Franklin to drench parts of the Dominican Republic

One-sentence summary

A tropical wave in the Gulf offers a slight development chance and some beneficial rains for south Texas, and of the three tropical storms in the Atlantic this morning, only Franklin needs watching for land impacts in Hispaniola.

Tying a bow around Hilary

We hope that all our new readers in California and the Southwest are doing ok this morning after Hilary’s rains yesterday. It sounds as if the mountains and some parts of the desert were particularly hard hit overnight with numerous debris flows, mudslides, and road washouts reported. A better assessment of the damage should emerge today.

While we are a tropics-focused site, we hope you’ll find our information interesting to share with your friends and family. And we may cover more than just hurricanes here eventually, in which case California would be a focus of ours. We are happy to have you here.

Gulf system & Texas rain

First up today, let’s talk about the Gulf of Mexico. We have seen no real progress toward better organization overnight from the tropical wave, Invest 91L in the eastern Gulf.

Invest 91L is not much better organized this morning, which may be a good thing given its size and the look it has on satellite. It still has a better chance than not of becoming a depression or tropical storm before reaching Texas Tuesday morning. (Weathernerds.org)

Just as a quick reminder: Invests are really just meteorological classifications given to tropical disturbances so extra data can be compiled about them; literally “an area of investigation.” There’s no strict definition, but they go from 90 to 99 and then recycle again. In the Atlantic we use “L” as an identifying abbreviation. The East Pacific is “E,” West Pacific “W,” etc.

Anyway, 91L has a broad circulation this morning but does not appear to be tightening up any as of yet. The good news is that this system has about 24 hours left over water before it comes ashore in South Texas. The most likely outcome at this point is an approach just south of Corpus Christi or north of Brownsville.

The most likely track of 91L brings it between Corpus Christi and Brownsville in South Texas, though it’s not out of the realm of possibility that it comes in south of the Rio Grande Valley in Mexico. (Tomer Burg)

Given that we have 24 hours left and given how this thing looks on satellite, my hunch is that if we see this upgraded we may skip the formalities and go right to a tropical storm. The next name on the list would be Harold. At worst, this would probably become a low-end tropical storm (45 to 55 mph maximum sustained winds, mostly in heavier rain bands and over water).

More importantly, this will be a rainmaker for Texas. The entire state desperately needs rain.

Drought is getting extreme to exceptional in much of Texas. Rainfall from a steadily moving tropical system would be mostly welcome at this point. (US Drought Monitor)

East Texas and the upper Texas coast are in extreme drought, with pockets of exceptional drought in Hill Country northwest of San Antonio. A quick moving tropical system would be virtually 100 percent positive in Texas right now. This will help. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches with higher amounts are expected for South Texas, mainly south of Corpus Christi into the Rio Grande Valley and west toward Laredo. Northern Mexico will also receive healthy rains from this.

Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches on average will be expected in South Texas, with pockets of higher amounts in parts of Brush Country and in the mountains of northern Mexico. (Pivotal Weather)

While this will not end drought for South Texas, it will greatly help. Unfortunately, the hardest hit parts of the state are expecting little to no rain this week, meaning drought and fire danger will worsen. See our companion site, Space City Weather for more on that.

Franklin to turn toward Hispaniola

Yesterday afternoon, Invest 90L in the Gulf was upgraded to Tropical Storm Franklin. Franklin is impressive looking this morning, less so for organization and more for how much moisture it is carrying.

Tropical Storm Franklin should make a hard right tonight toward Hispaniola, bringing very heavy rain to the Dominican Republic. (NOAA NHC)

Franklin is expected to turn to the north, almost like something you’d see in autumn. Why? An upper level low and a fairly deep trough for August over the western Atlantic will act to scoop it up, as high pressure over the southern Plains effectively acts as a “block” to letting this come west.

The sun rises on a moisture-laden Tropical Storm Franklin in the Caribbean (Tropical Tidbits)

So Franklin will make a hard right toward Hispaniola tonight or tomorrow. Exactly where this turn happens will determine where on Hispaniola Franklin comes ashore. This will have implications on specific rain totals for both Haiti and the Dominican Republic. As of now, the heaviest rains from Franklin are poised to hit on the Dominican Republic side of Hispaniola, where upwards of 8 to 12 inches or more will be possible, especially in the eastern part of the country.

Flooding is possible there, and some of it could be relatively significant, in addition to tropical storm conditions. For Puerto Rico, you’ll be on the eastern flank of Franklin’s circulation, which should allow for occasional bands of rain to push north into the island, and this too could lead to some more localized heavy rain or flash flooding issues with totals of 3 to 6 inches possible in the worst cases.

Franklin will likely hit Hispaniola as a moderate to strong tropical storm. The island will weaken it somewhat as it emerges to the north, but then it may find a more hospitable environment out ahead of it to gain strength. There is a good chance we could have Hurricane Franklin by the end of the week over the open Atlantic. Initially, Franklin will turn north or northeast. Except there’s a bit of a problem. Models indicate a ridge in the eastern Atlantic may try to build west enough to bump Franklin back off to the northwest, which means there is at least some chance Bermuda will be in play for this as it goes north. Eventually Franklin will turn back out to sea, but where that happens relative to Bermuda is impossible to say right now. So interests in Bermuda will want to follow Franklin’s progress closely in the coming days.

Additionally, if Franklin can get its act together in the Atlantic, there may be some rough surf and rip tide conditions possible on the U.S. East Coast next weekend.

The rest of the Atlantic

Tropical Depression 6? Now Tropical Storm Gert and soon to be history. Tropical Storm Emily formed yesterday from Invest 98L, and that should dissipate today. It is no threat to land. Behind Emily, we have Invest 92L, which has a solid chance at becoming a named storm in the next few days.

Invest 92L will gradually get its act together and has a good chance of developing while on its way out to sea in the open Atlantic. (Weathernerds.org)

It will likely also turn out to sea.

What’s next?

Looking out in time, once we unclog the Atlantic of the current logjam of systems, we can focus our attention more on two areas. One will be the potential that a system can spin off a potential “gyre” circulation over Central America, but that is looking a bit less impressive today than it did last week. The other area will be off Africa, where additional waves may emerge and threaten development in the next couple weeks. In truth, nothing looks especially concerning right now as we head into the start of September. Obviously, we’ll keep you posted.

Hilary’s rains and winds arrive in the Southwest today as the Atlantic churns out a lot of noise

For those of you just interested in the Atlantic & Gulf activity, scroll down. We will begin again today with Hurricane Hilary. For folks in California, charge your phones, as power outage risks will increase today with Hilary coming north.

Some people will be apt to call this a “bust” already. As those of us in Houston know all too well, when round one of rain ended and the sun even came out for a time, a lot of people were caught off-guard by Harvey’s main event that night. Hope for the best, but the forecast data has not markedly changed and severe impacts remain a likely outcome, especially in the desert.

One-sentence summary

Hurricane Hilary is expected to impact the Desert Southwest today with extremely heavy rain and a high risk of significant flooding, while South Texas eyes beneficial rains from a tropical wave this week, one of several Atlantic disturbances right now.

Hurricane Hilary: Still likely to bring severe rain & flooding to the desert

The majority of the forecast is on track, with a few noteworthy changes today, mainly in the form of higher wind forecasts in southeast California, Nevada, and southwest Arizona. Hilary is approaching the coast of Baja this morning with its 85 mph winds, mostly as expected.

Hilary should make landfall somewhere in northern Baja later this morning or this afternoon. Moisture extends well out ahead of it, and tropical moisture will arrive in the Southwest today. (Weathernerds.org)

Very little has broadly changed in terms of the track, but a few nuances lead to a little more wind for the Southwest U.S. Hilary should come north as a tropical storm into California, transitioning to a depression near Death Valley, and then getting absorbed into the U.S. weather pattern over Nevada.

Hilary will maintain tropical characteristics deep into the Southwest U.S., before becoming “post-tropical” over the Great Basin. (National Hurricane Center)

Let’s walk through impacts again today.

Coastal SoCal Metros (Santa Barbara-Ventura-LA-OC-San Diego)

For most in these areas, Hilary will be a considerable inconvenience. However, there will be issues with flooding in spots. There will also be concerns about mudslides and debris flows in the foothills and near burn scars. While the majority of valley and coastal locations will see 1 to 3 inches of rain, that will be enough to cause flash flooding of roads, and travel later today may become a little difficult. Urban flooding is always a concern when you get rain rates of an inch an hour possible, which may be what occurs in spots.

Wind gusts will peak in coastal SoCal later this morning and this afternoon into evening as Hilary comes north. Power outages are likely in spots. (NWS San Diego)

Flood watches are posted, and honestly if you don’t need to be out later today, it’s best to stay put.

While winds may not look dramatic on the map above (with 30 to 40 mph wind gusts on the coast), there will be stronger winds in spots and likely some power outages.

Conditions from Santa Barbara through San Diego will improve tomorrow.

Rainfall will range from 1-3″ between Ventura County and San Diego. Higher totals are likely in the mountains and deserts and in localized spots.

Inland SoCal Metro Valleys and Mountains

The impacts inland from the coast will vary. North and east-facing mountain slopes will likely see the heaviest rainfall with 3 to 10 inches likely and higher amounts not out of the question. Rate rates will be intense, and in those particular mountains, we may see mudslides, rock slides, and the potential for significant, rapid-onset flooding. This will include the mountains east of San Diego, the north side of the San Gabriels, San Bernardinos, and Ventura County mountains. The Antelope Valley north of LA may be very susceptible to flooding due to rain in the mountains upstream.

A “high” risk of excessive rainfall and flooding is in place today for the eastern half of San Diego County into Palm Springs, the Antelope Valley, Morongo Basin (including Joshua Tree), much of the Mojave Desert, Death Valley, into Nye County, NV/the Amargosa Desert. (Pivotal Weather)

Flash flooding or debris flows will be likely in some of the foothills and mountains, and travel, particularly into the mountains or across the Antelope Valley will be discouraged later today.

Winds will mimic patterns that we usually see in these regions during Santa Ana wind events, with gusts locally up to 50, 60, or 70 mph possible. This isn’t a Santa Ana, but because the wind direction of an approaching tropical storm is similar to how winds setup in Santa Anas, you’ll get that pattern. Prepare for power outages in some of these areas.

California Deserts

As noted above, the Antelope Valley will be particularly susceptible to heavy rainfall, but the Mojave Desert as a whole will be as well. That high risk from the NWS Weather Prediction Center remains in effect today, as it has since a few days ago. Confidence is high in major, damaging flooding impacts in these areas, which may see the equivalent of a year or more worth of rain today. Areas from the Imperial Valley and Salton Sea north to Death Valley are at highest risk for poor outcomes today. Locally, mountain peaks will enhance rainfall some, including the Panamints near Death Valley. Travel is discouraged today in the deserts and between the coast and interior.

Winds will also be an issue here, with 40 to 60 mph gusts widespread and risk for higher in spots. Prepare for power outages in these areas.

Tropical storm and high wind warnings are in effect for most of Southern California, including the deserts, with gusts of 40 to 60 mph and higher likely in some of the interior areas. (Pivotal Weather)

Arizona

Conditions tend to lessen some in Arizona, but there will still be issues with flooding and strong winds in the western part of the state.

Strong winds are likely in southwest Arizona, and power outages are a possibility in these spots. Rain totals (right) don’t look impressive, but there will be pockets of heavier rain and flash flooding possible, perhaps in some of the mountains north of Phoenix or in and around the Colorado River above Lake Havasu City. (Pivotal Weather)

Rain totals were dropped a good bit near Yuma today, as it appears a “dry slot,” or an area of dry air in between rainy bands may set up near Yuma.

Nevada

For Las Vegas, the threat of flash flooding is real, even if the highest risks are to the west of there. Urbanized desert is especially susceptible to flooding, so if a cell or band of heavy rain just happens to set up over the Las Vegas Valley, you will have a recipe for significant urban flooding. Be aware and prepared today in Vegas.

Heavy rains will be likely in Nye County in particular from Hilary. Significant flash flooding is possible there. Strong winds will extend well north into the Great Basin as well. (Pivotal Weather)

The heaviest rain may occur near Mount Charleston. As the NWS in Las Vegas noted this morning, the Nevada 24 hour state rainfall record previously occurred there. The 7.78 inch total on Mt. Charleston may get challenged today.

In addition to the rain, strong winds will be an issue here as well and power outages are possible in southern Nevada.

Conditions should improve from south to north tomorrow.

Lots of Atlantic nuisance and noise

Shifting into the Atlantic basin now. The NHC’s outlook map looks more like a leaked flag football playbook or something.

There are a lot of items on the outlook map today, but none of them look particularly serious in terms of impacts. (NOAA NHC)

Right out of the gate, let me just say that none of these systems look particularly menacing or troublesome for any areas. Busy as it may be, we’ll call this a nuisance setup. Let’s walk through these things.

Gulf wave: A rainmaker in South Texas

The tropical wave we’ve been talking about for several days is finally in the Gulf of Mexico this morning, and based on satellite imagery, it is not terrible looking. Organized, no, but vigorous, yes.

A tropical wave in the Gulf with a 50% chance of developing over the next couple days is robust looking but disorganized for now. (Weathernerds.org)

This will continue due west across the Gulf and make it into Texas by Tuesday morning. This has a 50/50 shot of becoming a depression or low-end tropical storm as it approaches Texas, but it is unlikely to surpass that level. The main impact from this system will be rainfall in Texas, a needed commodity. Sadly, for Houston and drought-stricken east Texas, this will do next to nothing. However, South Texas needs the rain too, and they will get some as this system moves in.

1 to 3 inches of beneficial rain is expected for South Texas, including Corpus Christi into Laredo and across northern Mexico. (Pivotal Weather)

Look for about 1 to 3 inches of rain for areas south of Matagorda Bay and lesser amounts north of there, to near 0 rain for the I-10 corridor in Houston and SE Texas.

Invest 90L: May develop today, rain for Hispaniola, Bermuda in the future?

The next wave to discuss is Invest 90L, which is located in the southeast Caribbean. It is beginning to attempt to develop there, and there’s some chance this becomes a depression or even Tropical Storm Emily today.

A robust tropical wave in the southeast Caribbean has a good chance at becoming a depression or storm in the next 24 hours. (Tropical Tidbits)

If you look at the NHC map above, you can see how 90L’s potential development takes on an “L” shape. The good news is that 90L should be drawn up north and out to sea rather quickly. The bad news is that it could impact Hispaniola, particularly with heavy rainfall. Bermuda may also want to keep an eye on 90L’s progress over the coming days. We will watch this closely for those areas this week.

Tropical Depression 6: Heads for the exits today

Invest 99L turned into TD 6 yesterday, and it will degenerate back into a wave today. Thanks for joining us.

Invest 98L & Africa waves

We expect development of Invest 98L in the next day or so, at least to a depression, maybe a tropical storm. But it will stay out at sea. Subsequent waves off Africa will likely behave similarly in the coming days.