Hurricane Lee continues on its path toward New England and Atlantic Canada

One-sentence summary

Hurricane Lee is on track to impact New England and Atlantic Canada this weekend, a significant storm capable of a serious storm surge and widespread winds.

Hurricane Lee’s forecast track continues to narrow some, with a path into the Bay of Fundy or Nova Scotia most likely at this point, although impacts will spread very, very far from the center. (Tomer Burg)

Hurricane Lee: 100 mph, moving N 9 mph

What’s changed since Wednesday evening?

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for portions of extreme southwestern New Brunswick, as well as southwestern Nova Scotia. Tropical Storm Watches connect the two Hurricane Watches and also extend east across Nova Scotia past Halifax.

The rainfall forecast was nudged up a little for southeast Maine, southern New Brunswick, and southwest Nova Scotia.

Lee’s forecast track

For the most part, the track forecast is now baked in up to landfall. There may be some wobbles in terms of exactly where Lee ends up, but it’s narrowed to most likely between Eastport, ME and about Cape Sable Island.

Atlantic Canada surge impacts update

For Canada, we continue to worry most about surge, particularly with a storm that would come right into the Bay of Fundy, without making landfall on Nova Scotia. Essentially, large amounts of water would be funneled into the Bay. Saturday’s low tide in the bay is around 7:30 local time, with the subsequent high tide at 1:45 AM Sunday. That high tide may be the worst tide of the event for the Fundy coast of New Brunswick. Surge will extend far to the east of the center though, and a substantial surge may occur along much of Nova Scotia’s coast as Lee comes in.

The most significant waves will come into the southwest portion of Nova Scotia and perhaps into the Bay of Fundy, with considerable storm surge impacts on the Fundy coast of New Brunswick and in Nova Scotia (Weather Bell)

Again, it’s important to note that the most significant hazards will differ from those of Fiona last year, which tracked into eastern Nova Scotia. And the surge impact from this storm and the wind field of this storm will be broader and wider spread than most storms. This is a serious storm and should be treated as such.

Massachusetts outlook

Yesterday we noted that the one primary area of uncertainty may have been Cape Cod and the Islands, as the approach of Lee from the southeast would determine how much wind, rain, and surge we saw there. Lee is now expected to pass about 100 miles or so east of the Cape and Nantucket. This should offer up tropical storm force wind gusts, as well as at least some heavy rainfall to those areas.

The wind gust forecast for southern New England shows gusts of up to 60 mph possible on Cape Cod and the Islands, as well as south of Boston. (NWS Boston)

The strongest winds should stay offshore, and aside from the 2 to 4 foot surge and moderate coastal flooding, this will likely behave more like a strong nor’easter than anything for southern New England.

The tide forecast for Nantucket shows minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding possible by Saturday. (NOAA)

Still, folks in these areas should continue to monitor forecast changes, particularly around the surge forecast to ensure that they’re up to speed on the latest. We’ll have a little more detail on the Maine and coastal New Hampshire outlook later this afternoon.

Lee’s wind and rainfall outlook

Changes to the wind and rainfall sections of our post yesterday were minimal. We are still expecting broadly the same outcomes from those regardless of whether Lee is a hurricane, tropical storm, or post-tropical. The rainfall forecast was nudged up a bit, however, with some areas now seeing more like 4 to 6 inches of rain.

Rain totals have been nudged up just a little across Maine, southern New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia with up over 4 inches possible in some of those areas. Flash flooding will be a concern. (NOAA)

We will have another post with the latest on any changes late this afternoon or evening.

Elsewhere in the tropics

Hurricane Margot has had a bit too much Sauvignon blanc and is basically doing loops southwest of the Azores. It remains no real threat to land for some time, though at some point I suppose it could approach the Azores.

Margot is confused. (NOAA NHC)

Invest 97L continues to look poised to soon develop and track out over the open ocean. Perhaps eventually Bermuda will need to watch this one, but that’s a long way off yet.

There are no other concerns beyond those systems.

Wednesday PM Lee Update: Watches issued for New England as Lee’s track gradually comes into focus

One-sentence summary

Hurricane Lee will pass west of Bermuda tomorrow and into Atlantic Canada or Downeast Maine on Saturday, bringing widespread wind and potentially severe storm surge impacts to portions of New England and (especially) Atlantic Canada.

The NHC forecast for Lee brings it toward the Bay of Fundy by Saturday evening. (Tomer Burg)

Hurricane Lee: 105 mph, moving NNW 10 mph

What’s changed since this morning?

Hurricane Watches have been posted for Downeast Maine from Stonington to the Canadian border, including Acadia National Park and Bar Harbor.

Tropical Storm Watches have been posted from Watch Hill, RI to Stonington, ME, including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket.

Storm Surge Watches have been posted for Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket.

These watches will shift and be upgraded to warnings as Lee approaches closer.

Lee’s track forecast is coming into better agreement this afternoon, with an expected wobble toward but not into Massachusetts before an eventual landfall in either Downeast Maine, New Brunswick, or far western Nova Scotia.

Lee right now: Approaching Bermuda

Lee is still about 375 miles from Bermuda and will pass to the west later tomorrow. (Weathernerds.org)

Lee’s intensity is at 105 mph, making it a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. However, because Lee’s hurricane-force winds extend out 115 miles and tropical-storm force winds extend out 265 miles, Lee is in rarefied air in terms of sizeable storms. It will likely bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda tomorrow.

Lee’s forecast track: Getting closer to resolution

Yesterday saw a pretty severe lurch back toward the southern New England coast on modeling, and while that continues to a lesser extent today, we’re starting to narrow the track of Lee a bit. Lee will probably wobble back to the west as it approaches the latitude of Nantucket and southeast Massachusetts. But the mantra will be “bend, don’t break.” Lee’s track will bend west, but then it should wobble back northward or north-northeastward as it passes Cape Cod. In other words, it will get close but the core will probably stay east of Cape Cod and Boston.

Lee’s track will take it north-northeast, then bend it back west some near Cape Cod before taking it back off to the northeast toward Maine, New Brunswick, or western Nova Scotia. (Tomer Burg)

Lee’s impacts: Wind

Given the size of Lee’s wind field, the specific track matters very little for wind impacts from Lee (with one notable exception in Cape Cod). They will spread over a broad area extending from coastal Rhode Island through western Newfoundland. I mean, the expanse of likely tropical storm force winds from Lee is mammoth.

Tropical storm force winds are likely to impact the coast from Rhode Island through Maine (as well as some of the White Mountains in NH and interior Maine mountains). Most of Nova Scotia and southeast New Brunswick will see these winds as well. Hurricane-force winds can’t be ruled out on the coast of Maine or Nova Scotia. (Weather Bell)

The map above shows the forecast wind swath from today’s European operational model. Don’t focus on specifics here. I’ve tried to draw attention to how wide the wind field is with tropical storm force winds of 40 to 60 mph or stronger possible and likely. For portions of coastal Nova Scotia or even Downeast Maine, there may be the potential for hurricane-force wind gusts as well.

Even Cape Cod *may* get into the stronger winds depending on exactly how close Lee’s core gets to the coast on Saturday. Lee will still be a firm hurricane we think at that point, so if the core can approach the Cape, a period of 60 to 80 mph wind gusts will be possible. If Lee’s core stays far enough away, you probably will still gust to maybe 60 or so there, but the more damaging winds would stay offshore. Either way, we’re looking at widespread wind impacts from Lee, likely leading to numerous power outages, especially in Maine and Canada.

Lee’s impacts: Surge, an extremely serious concern in Nova Scotia, the Bay of Fundy, and portions of Maine

I am very, very concerned about the storm surge from Lee. Lee will behave far beyond what is “normal” or expected from a tropical storm or category 1 hurricane. For all intents and purposes, the equivalent of at least a category 2 or 3 surge will come ashore near and east of Lee’s track. Comparable analogs to Lee in terms of surge are Hurricane Ike in 2008 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Couple that by bringing Lee smack into the Bay of Fundy with the highest tides in the world and a new moon (with elevated tides already) and you have a potential problem brewing.

Lee’s surge in the U.S. may be worst in Cape Cod Bay, unless it makes landfall in Maine (in which case, the worst would be in Downeast Maine). The surge will be much worse than this in Canada. (NOAA NHC)

There is nuance, and the exact track will matter in terms of who sees how much surge. But for folks on Cape Cod and in Maine, you should prepare for a healthy coastal flooding/surge event. In Atlantic Canada on the coast, you should be preparing for serious flooding risks. In terms of analog tracks. Hurricane Ginny from 1963 may be the best fit here for Canada. I plotted Ginny, Juan, and Fiona on the map below just for comparison to Lee’s forecast track.

Lee’s forecast track plotted alongside Ginny, Juan, and Fiona. (NOAA)

Juan and Fiona were too far east to be considered adequate analogs to Lee in terms of surge or even wind impacts. Ginny was a little stronger than Lee will be, but I am assuming Lee’s wind field is larger.

Front page of the Bangor Daily News from October 30, 1963 after Hurricane Ginny passed by Maine and into Nova Scotia.

Whatever the case, I think it’s important to recognize the risk of serious surge here. Per the Canadian Hurricane Centre, the Bay of Fundy and coastal mainland Nova Scotia should see the worst surge impacts. We’ll provide more information once surge forecasts start populating.

In addition to surge, high waves and beach erosion will be an issue from the Southeast U.S. into Canada, along with rip currents.

Rain totals of 2 to 4 inches are generally expected from Lee as it moves into Canada. Isolated higher amounts will be possible, especially in higher terrain and/or portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. (NOAA)

Lee’s impacts: Rain

Rain is not the most serious or concerning impact of Lee. However, there will be the potential for areas of heavy rain and flooding in portions of eastern New England, especially as those areas have seen a fair bit of rain lately. The heavy rain risk in Canada is primarily confined to Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Rain should thin out some over Prince Edward Island.

We’ll stop there for this evening. Our next update will be as usual on Thursday morning.

September 13, 2023 Outlook: Lee starting to make its turn north toward New England and Nova Scotia

One-sentence summary

Hurricane Lee is slowly starting to weaken, but remains a large and powerful hurricane as it turns northward on Wednesday morning and it will eventually bring significant impacts to parts of eastern New England and Atlantic Canada this weekend.

Current status of Lee

As of 8 am ET on Wednesday morning, Lee has sustained winds of 115 mph and is moving to the northwest at 6 mph. In terms of timing, it will bring impacts to Bermuda starting late tonight through Friday, and then into New England and Atlantic Canada by later on Friday and Saturday. By that time Lee will be weakening, but should still pack a punch given its large size.

Lee track forecast

Our confidence in where Lee will go over the next couple of days is high. After turning today it should move more or less north, passing to the west of Bermuda. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the island due to the threat of heavy rainfall and strong waves. However, Bermuda thankfully should be spared the worst effects of Lee along this track.

Super-ensemble forecast for Hurricane Lee, with annotation. (Tomer Burg)

After days of uncertainty, we should finally start to get some clarity today on Lee’s track at the end of this week, and its implications for residents of New England and Atlantic Canada. At this point I’m leaning toward a northward track until Friday, at which point the storm should make a dogleg to the left. Our main forecast question, in regard to track, is how significant will this westward bend be? It depends on the strength of a trough of low pressure over the Pennsylvania and New York region.

Our best hurricane and global models indicate that this turn will bring the center of Lee fairly close to the Cape Cod region of Massachusetts early on Saturday morning, although the storm is still expected to remain largely offshore. The center would then move into coastal Maine by Saturday night or Sunday morning. The center would subsequently move through Atlantic Canada and make its exit to the northeast. Again, we should get a better handle on the details of this dogleg over the next 24 hours, and we’ll have an update for you late this afternoon.

Lee intensity forecast and impacts

Lee now faces a number of factors that should lead to a gradual diminishment in strength, including increasing wind shear and a track that will bring it over cooler seas. However, this process should be slow, and it is likely that Lee will approach Cape Cod and Maine this weekend as a broad, Category 1 hurricane. As it likely will be starting to transition into an extratropical storm, you can probably expect the storm to behave more or less like a very large nor’easter.

Forecast for maximum wind gusts from Hurricane Lee this weekend. (Weather Bell)

After bringing tropical storm impacts to Bermuda, Lee could start to bring Tropical Storm-force winds to the Cape Cod area of Massachusetts by Friday night, and into Maine and Nova Scotia by Saturday morning. How strong will these winds be? That will depend ultimately on the storm’s track and how much its intensity wanes, but the following wind gust forecast from the European model offers a decent representation of risk. Note that wind gusts are short bursts of wind, and that sustained winds will be lower.

Rainfall totals are likely even less predictable than winds, because they’re not only dependent on track but also more localized conditions that will determine where thunderstorms train. The heaviest totals are likely accumulate in Maine and Nova Scotia, where some areas may see 3 to 6 inches of rainfall in a fairly short period from Lee.

Hurricane Lee rainfall totals. (Weather Bell)

There will, of course, be myriad other effects from this storm. One of them is storm surge. We have seen in the past the larger hurricanes tend to produce a more significant surge of water, and it appears as though Lee could bring a pretty significant coastal surge event into Maine and parts of Canada. The details of this will be worked out in the next day or two as we fine-tune the track forecast. Accordingly, Beach erosion, rough surf, and rip currents are a lock for the East Coast and Atlantic Canada. Not a good beach weekend, to be sure. Areas that see stronger winds and rainfall will likely see downed trees, which could in turn knock down power lines. So be prepared for some disruptions of that kind, as well.

Hurricane Margot and the rest of the gang

Margot is a hurricane at sea. Fortunately there is nothing to see. After spinning and going whee. In a few days, it should cease to be.

Beyond Margot there is another system that is very likely to develop into hurricane over the next several days. This system is probably not a concern for the continental United States or Caribbean islands, but could definitely be something for Bermuda to watch. If so, impacts would occur about a week from now, or maybe a bit longer. But we have a lot of questions to answer before getting into a specific forecast for a storm that would be called Nigel, should it form.

Nigel-to-be will split the uprights between Lee and Margot, most likely. (National Hurricane Center)

Look for our next update on Lee late this afternoon.

Tuesday PM Lee Update: Bermuda under a Tropical Storm Watch, as Lee’s wind field grows larger

One-sentence summary

Hurricane Lee will impact Bermuda with tropical storm conditions in a couple days, as Lee’s wind field now extends out nearly 250 miles from the center.

Lee will turn northward tomorrow or Thursday, passing west of Bermuda and tracking toward eastern New England or Atlantic Canada. (NOAA NHC)

Hurricane Lee: 115 mph, moving NW 7 mph

What’s changed since this morning?

Bermuda is now under a Tropical Storm Watch, with Lee expected to bring some impacts to the island in a couple days.

The forecast track this weekend continues to wobble a bit between Maine and Nova Scotia. While impacts will extend far from the center of Lee, the actual track does matter in terms of what to expect from storm surge. This will need further fine tuning.

Lee is growing in size, with tropical storm force winds extending out nearly 250 miles from the center.

Bermuda impacts

Expect very rough surf, a period or periods of rain, and gusty tropical storm force winds on Bermuda. Tropical storm force winds should arrive Thursday afternoon at the latest I’d think with rain reaching Bermuda by late Thursday morning or early Thursday afternoon.

Lee’s forecast focus: Rain

Let’s talk a little about rain. The good news with Lee is that it will be moving quickly. There have been and will continue to be some rains in Maine and portions of eastern New England this week, as well as in New Brunswick. When Lee marches into Maine or Nova Scotia, there will be rain spread all over, but there will be a core of rain that could be a bit troublesome. The GFS, which tracks Lee into Nova Scotia brings that 4 to 8 inch (100-200 mm) core of rain mostly toward Nova Scotia or into the Bay of Fundy. The European model, which tracks Lee into Downeast Maine brings it toward Acadia National Park and Bar Harbor. Also notice on the maps below that there are significantly different rainfall forecasts between the Euro and GFS for Massachusetts as well. The Cape, Islands, and Boston see heavier rain from the Euro, while the GFS delivers only some rain to the Cape. New Hampshire also sees differences here too.

Click to enlarge the rainfall forecast (from Lee, not including rain this week) for Maine and New Brunswick which shows the differences between two operational models in terms of where the heaviest rain may fall, relative to track. (Weather Bell)

This trend actually holds up within the model ensembles right now as well. The European model tends to bend back to the west a bit toward Maine and New Brunswick, while the GFS ensembles are placed more to the east, aiming at Nova Scotia.

Click to enlarge a map showing the spread between the European and GFS ensemble model members. The red hues on the left indicate that the European model ensemble has more members suggesting a track that could lurch toward Maine or New Brunswick, while the GFS is focused more on Nova Scotia. (Tomer Burg)

Interestingly, the European model has the support of the new HAFS-B hurricane model, which does currently show the storm clipping Massachusetts before coming in over Bar Harbor. The HWRF, our previous top hurricane model shows the storm coming in near Yarmouth, NS. So to say we’re confident in which camp is right would be lying. However, the HAFS-B has had a bit of a hot hand lately, and when I see the Euro and a top hurricane model on the same page, it makes me believe a track closer to Maine may be slightly more likely than the alternative. We’ll see.

The bottom line in all this remains that folks on Cape Cod, Nantucket, Downeast Maine, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia should be preparing for heavy rain, wind, and tidal impacts from a hurricane this weekend. Please, again, don’t assume that just because Lee is weakening on approach that that makes it worth downplaying. As I noted this morning: Lee will punch well above its weight class when it comes ashore. The size of Lee means that it will be bringing a significant amount of water north with it, and that will cause surge/coastal marine impacts equivalent to a much stronger storm than Lee may be classified as.

We’ll have more in the morning.