August 18, 2023 Outlook: Atlantic potpourri, Texas rain chances, Hilary to soak the desert

One-sentence summary

The tropics are busy, with Hurricane Hilary likely to become a severe rain and flooding threat in the low deserts of California, while the Gulf will watch a tropical wave progress toward South Texas early next week.

Happening now: All the things

I’ve always found that it’s helpful to orient myself with a map, so let’s get oriented on what’s happening by looking at a satellite image of the East Pacific and Atlantic Oceans.

It’s a busy time in the tropics with multiple areas to watch. (College of DuPage)

What we’ll do today is work mostly left to right from that map above and discuss Hilary, the Gulf disturbance, Invest 98L, Invest 99L, and the “wild card” area below.

Hurricane Hilary: An exceptionally rare flooding threat for the SoCal deserts

I’m going to keep this section brief this morning. We discussed Hilary’s forecast in depth in our special post yesterday evening. We will have another one for you later this afternoon. Hilary has absolutely exploded into a category 4 hurricane with 145 mph maximum sustained winds.

Hilary has gone beast mode since inception, from a tropical storm to a category 4 storm in short order. (Weathernerds.org)

The general idea on Hilary is unchanged today, likely to come north into or just off the coast of central and northern Baja and eventually into California as a remnant tropical storm or depression. This leads to all sorts of potential issues in SoCal, but the primary one? Flooding.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has issued a “high risk” of excessive rain on Sunday for Palm Springs, the Coachella Valley, and low desert regions of southern California for the first time on record. (Pivotal Weather)

The Weather Prediction Center already has a high risk of excessive rainfall posted for Sunday for Palm Springs and the Coachella Valley. This is the first time on record that they’ve issued a high risk in the low deserts east of the mountains in California. High risks from the WPC are very well correlated to bad outcomes. Over 80 percent of all flooding-related damage has occurred during high risk days and near 40 percent of all flood-related deaths have occurred on high risk days. In other words: High risks mean business.

Much of Southern California is expecting 2 to 4 inches of rain. The deserts will see 2 to 6 inches, with amounts of 6 to 10 inches in the mountains. (NOAA)

Rain totals will be exceptional for some of these areas on the east side of the SoCal mountains. This will cause significant flooding and potential damage, in addition to mudslides in some mountain areas. We’ll talk more about this later today, but as I said last night: Eric and I are quite familiar with flooding here in Houston. We encourage anyone in Hilary’s path, particularly in the deserts of California and Nevada to take this thing very, very seriously.

Gulf Wave: South Texas rains & potential development

The forecast for the upcoming Gulf system has not changed a whole heck of a lot unless you take the operational European model as gospel. Again, this thing will be hauling west. Look for it to emerge off Florida’s west coast on Sunday and make land in Texas on Tuesday. This limits how much time it will spend over the Gulf, and it’s likely why the NHC is still only giving it about a 30 percent chance of developing.

The big story since yesterday is that the operational European model has shifted to get more in line with the GFS and the Euro ensemble mean, which aims the bulk of the precipitation toward South Texas.

Rainfall from the Gulf wave is expected to occur primarily over the open water of the Gulf of Mexico, (sarcasm warning) an area not currently experiencing drought. There is a chance for higher amounts of rain between the Victoria Crossroads and RGV. (Pivotal Weather)

The good news? South Texas needs rain. The bad news? So does East Texas and Houston. So it appears this will help ease things a bit for Corpus and perhaps the Valley, with isolated 2 to 4 inch totals, depending on how well organized it is, exact track, etc. Eric has more over at our Houston-focused site, Space City Weather.

In terms of tropical development, this continues to look as if the speed will hinder it a bit. That being said, some modeling has shifted a bit toward this thing trying to make a last minute effort to organize. And it may be that this is what occurs. It blobs its way across the Gulf, and then in the 18 hours prior to arriving in Texas it makes a go at depression or tropical storm status. Interests along the Texas coast should continue to monitor the progress of this, just to be safe. We’ll keep you posted throughout the weekend on any forecast developments.

Invests 99L and 98L: Most likely for the fish

Both Invest 99L and Invest 98L are expected to probably remain out at sea over the next 4 or 5 days, with slow development possible from either or both area. The NHC has given 99L a 40 percent chance to develop and 98L a 70 percent chance. Invest 98L has the better chance to get a name, but Invest 99L is probably the more important of the two to watch, as it has a chance to at least graze the northeast Caribbean islands as it comes west. So should it organize, impacts would be possible in, say, the Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. That is not the likely case however.

Although several models track Invest 99L toward the northeast Caribbean islands, virtually all of these models barely organize 99L into a depression. (Tropical Tidbits)

So interests in Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands should monitor 99L, but this doesn’t seem as if it will be a serious threat.

The medium range (days 6 to 10): The wild card wave

During the 6 to 10 day period, we’ll take Hilary and the Gulf wave off the board. Invest 98L and 99L, whatever they become should both be heading out to sea. That leaves us with the “wild card” area. Why am I calling it that? Because it has low odds of developing, but it is growing some model support. What is expected to happen is a piece of the monsoon trough, which Invest 99L is attempting to break from now may break off and sneak into the southern Caribbean. For the Windward Islands, this probably will just bring an increased chance of showers this weekend or early next week.

There are a couple options here. If it starts to organize, it will begin to feel the tug of a deep trough over the western Atlantic and get yanked north across the Greater Antilles and into the open waters, maybe grazing Bermuda on the way out. If it struggles, it may just sort of percolate in the southern Caribbean and/or dissipate.

Any tropical system in the Caribbean *should* get yanked north by a rather deep trough for August off the East Coast of the U.S. (Tropical Tidbits)

Either way, I wouldn’t expect serious impacts from this system, should it develop. For now. However, given the time of year, warm water, etc., you should continue to monitor the progress of this through next week.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): The western Caribbean may gyrate

We’ll keep this brief a.) because this post is long enough and b.) we really can’t say with any confidence what will happen here. But, it continues to look as if a Central American gyre may develop and that will be worth watching. There is some chance for Gulf or Caribbean development in that pattern, but any details or specifics are impossible to pinpoint right now. But the final days of August will probably not be exceptionally quiet ones.

We’ll be with you all weekend, so if anything changes, you’ll know.

Hurricane Hilary poised to bring potentially extreme rainfall to the Southwest U.S.

Although we are branded as an Atlantic hurricane site, we here at The Eyewall feel Hurricane Hilary deserves special attention, given that it could produce some very significant impacts to parts of the Southwest U.S., where many of our readers have friends or family. Thus, we will be covering Hilary extensively into next week. Feel free to spread the word.

One-sentence summary

Major Hurricane Hilary is rapidly intensifying off the coast of Mexico, and although it will weaken as it comes north, it is setting up to bring a potentially extreme rain and flooding event to parts of the deserts and/or mountains in California and Nevada.

Happening now

Hurricane Hilary has exploded since yesterday, now classified as a major, category 3 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.

The sun sets on a rapidly intensifying Hurricane Hilary, south of Baja. (Tropical Tidbits)

Additional strengthening is likely, and Hilary is expected to become a category 4 storm by tomorrow. Hilary has been able to tap into an exceptionally favorable environment for rapid intensification, and that will allow the storm to peak at a high end. Warm water and low shear will do that.

Hilary’s trek toward Baja

Tropical storm watches and warnings are posted for Baja, including Cabo with tropical storm conditions beginning at Cabo tomorrow night. If you know anyone visiting Cabo (or any southern Baja locations), my guess is that they are well prepared to handle a tropical storm type impact. Models are in high confidence that Hilary will pass safely offshore to keep impacts moderate there. The main threat may be heavy rain that causes flash flooding, as well as very rough surf at the coast.

Rain totals will vary across Baja, but in general, the heaviest rain is expected in the north, as well as near Cabo, with flash flooding possible. (Weathernerds.org)

Hilary will begin to weaken as it encounters cooler waters off Baja, and it is expected to make landfall in the north or just scrape the northern coast of Baja before coming ashore in California. Hurricane force winds are possible in northern Baja but they may come up just short.

Hilary will come close to making landfall along the northern coast of Baja, though it may just scrape the coast and come ashore in California. Either way, the impacts will be (mostly) similar. (NOAA NHC)

That being said, interests along the Baja Peninsula should continue to monitor Hilary’s progress as it comes north.

The main event: Rain and flooding in the desert

For those of you living in the Desert Southwest, particularly interior California, you hear “hurricane” and you may think wind. Yes, winds may be part of the issue, particularly along eastern facing slopes of the mountains in SoCal. But take it from someone who lives in Houston and helped get people through Hurricane Harvey: Heed the warnings about rainfall.

The current rainfall forecast for the Southwest shows anywhere from 2 to 6″ over a broad area, with locally higher amounts, perhaps up to 10″ or even more in parts of California and Nevada.

The desert is in for an absolute soaking. While there will be heavy rain and flooding concerns in the coastal cities between San Diego and Ventura pending the exact final track of Hilary, the primary risk of severe flooding is in the mountains and deserts inland from the coast. (NOAA)

How much rain is this? Death Valley averages a bit over 2″ of rain a year, and they’re currently forecast to receive anywhere from 2 to 5 inches with Hilary. You can do the math. Rain like this comes down harder than usual and can quickly lead to flash flooding, arroyo flooding, and potentially longer-term issues in some spots from too much rain.

Put simply: This has the potential, if not the likelihood of being one of the most significant rain events in recent years in the deserts of southeast California and southern Nevada. For folks in Phoenix, this probably is not your storm. But for folks in Vegas and over the passes from LA and San Diego, this has potential to cause significant and severe disruption Sunday and Monday into early next week.

In addition to the rain, there will be significant marine issues along the coast from swells and rough seas. Tropical storm force winds are possible down to lower elevations in spots and along the coast, and stronger winds are likely in the mountains. We’ll get a better read on specifics of that once Hilary’s final track comes into view.

Anyone with interests in SoCal, Nevada, along the Colorado River in western Arizona and even north into parts of Idaho and Montana will want to be ready for Hilary’s arrival and plan to deal with some disruptions, if not significant ones Sunday and Monday. Folks just west of these locations, into the Central Valley and Central Coast of California and the Sierra will want to monitor forecast progress as well. A shift west could change impacts from Tahoe down through Santa Barbara.

All in all, this is looking like a high impact storm. We’ll keep you posted.

August 17, 2023 Outlook: Gulf and California love

One-sentence summary

Atlantic action stays out at sea, a Gulf system remains a possibility next week, and <checks notes> California will be impacted by Hurricane Hilary.

Happening now: Still waiting

We’re not ones to tempt fate here at The Eyewall. We legitimately want everyone to have a peaceful hurricane season with minimal stress and anxiety. So, while we are still waiting for something to come of the “noise” in the tropics this week, we’re not complaining either.

Two waves in the Atlantic have a 60 percent chance each to develop in the coming days. They have been dubbed Invest 98L (east) and Invest 99L (west). Both are expected to remain out at sea, thankfully, but you can see them on satellite this morning.

The two Atlantic tropical waves on satellite this morning don’t look especially close to organizing yet, but they’re getting there. Both are expected to remain out at sea. (Weathernerds.org)

Earlier this week, I said the trailing wave might have a better shot to do something. As of today, I think it’s really a toss-up. Either invest could be “the one,” but neither looks exactly superb as of yet. We still anticipate that the upper level pattern will safely steer both disturbances out to sea.

Both invests are expected to remain out at sea per most model guidance (the Euro ensemble members shown here), but even if it weren’t to turn out to sea entirely, any development is expected to be slow and lower end. (Weathernerds.org)

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should make sure this doesn’t change, so keep an eye on things the next couple days just to be safe. Meanwhile, let’s look closer at the northern Caribbean and southwest Atlantic this morning, where the ingredients for our more meaningful Gulf disturbance will slowly come together over the next few days.

Unsettled weather off the coast of Florida and north of Hispaniola should come together in the eastern Gulf this weekend to provide a slight chance for tropical development. (Tropical Tidbits)

The primary impetus for this disturbance is currently just north of Hispaniola. This will race off to the west-northwest and merge with some additional activity in the eastern Gulf and we’ll have our disturbance. The NHC gives it a 30 percent chance of developing next week. The general spirit of things: “A disturbance with a low ceiling potential for development will race west across the Gulf next week toward Texas” seems to remain the story here. A good idea to keep tabs on this one, but there’s a very good chance this will not cause any significant problems.

What of the rain? The hope was (and still is) that this disturbance can drag enough Gulf moisture into drought-plagued Texas and/or Louisiana to help deliver some rainfall and provide some relief from drought. If you look at the forecast rain totals next week from the deterministic and operational GFS (left) and Euro (right), you can see some substantial differences. The GFS suppresses diffuse rain to the south, while the Euro is like “Heck yeah, brother!”

Click to enlarge forecast maps of the GFS & European model rainfall through next Thursday. (Pivotal Weather)

Well, let’s look specifically at the Euro. If you unpack the Euro ensemble, which is an average of 50 different European model runs with different tweaks at initialization, the picture that’s painted is a bit different than that of the operational model shown above. The map below shows the European ensemble probability of 1″ or more of rain. Not high!

Probabilities of 1″ or more of rain next week are highest offshore and south of I-10 in Texas, meaning any serious drought relief inland seems unlikely from this disturbance. (Weather Bell)

Ensembles help us a lot in these situations because they can validate or invalidate critical deterministic guidance. In this case, it puts an awful lot of doubt on that European operational model that brings 1 to 4 inches of rain to Texas and southwest Louisiana. It has the placement farther south and west and probably with lower odds.

Bottom line: While some rain is likely in drought-stricken Texas, this may not be the droid you’re looking for.

Interlude: Californication

Our site is intended to primarily cover Atlantic tropics, but every so often, something interesting and worth discussing happens on the Pacific side too. Today we focus on California.

Rare as it is, California can get impacted by tropical storms, although it takes a heck of a lot of things to come together to get that to happen. The last time this officially happened was in 1939 when a tropical storm made landfall near San Pedro (between the Port of Long Beach and Rancho Palos Verdes). As recently as last year, Hurricane Kay brought remnant impacts to California that were rather significant. Suffice to say though, it’s unusual. Hurricane Hilary just formed in the Pacific, and the official forecast track will raise an eyebrow or two.

Hilary has exploded into a category 1 hurricane and should become a major hurricane before weakening as it approaches Baja or Southern California late this weekend and Monday. (NOAA NHC)

This has support from modeling. As Hilary comes north, it will be steered by a trough to its north and the insanely sprawling, near-record ridge over the Midwest and Plains. Hilary should come north, roughly parallel to Baja but offshore initially. It will then likely get drawn inland somewhere between Point Conception (west of Santa Barbara) and the central coast of Baja in Mexico. The most likely outcome right now is a Baja landfall north of Cabo and San Carlos. Anyone in Cabo, tropical storm conditions are possible, but hurricane conditions are currently expected to stay offshore.

Hilary will be drawn north in the alley between the so-called “heat dome” over the Plains and an upper low off the Central Coast of California. Exactly where that sets up will determine where Hilary tracks, but model agreement strongly points to a Baja landfall right now (Tropical Tidbits)

Since yesterday, modeling seems to have coalesced around another storm not making official landfall in California, and as shown by the NHC above, it will probably make land in Baja. However, the general theme of things, bringing Hilary north will bring the remnant moisture northward too.

In general, you should expect a good chance of heavy rain in SoCal, especially in the desert and up into Nevada and for portions of western Arizona and southwest Utah beginning Sunday into Monday, but specifics will be tough to nail down. Additionally, strong winds in passes and at higher elevations will be an issue.

Heavy rain from Hilary will potentially cause significant flooding issues in interior southern California and western Arizona up through Nevada. (Pivotal Weather)

That type of rain (3 to 6 inches) in the desert can cause severe flooding issues, so folks between Phoenix and San Diego northward (as well as on Baja obviously) should be monitoring Hilary’s progress. Check out your local National Weather Service office for more localized details.

The medium range (days 6 to 10): A bit of an interlude period

I think the medium range period right now looks like a quieter one with the potential of lingering open Atlantic activity and then a bridge to extended period development in the Gulf, Caribbean, or southwest Atlantic. There are no specific concerns at this time beyond Hilary in California and babysitting the Gulf wave next week.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): More to come

The system (meaning the atmosphere) remains cranky and noisy beyond day 10 I think. There are several things that might happen, but there is nothing we necessarily feel convicted about that will happen.

For one, as both Eric and I have alluded to in recent days, we could see a gyre setup over Central America, which could spice things up a bit, especially in the Caribbean or eastern Gulf. Some modeling is suggesting that stuff could creep north toward the Bahamas or off the Southeast U.S. coast. The eastern Atlantic may settle down a bit here.

What will ultimately dictate things in the extended range will be the upper pattern. Do we have another ridge over Texas? Will it have nudged back to the Southwest? Will the Bermuda high remain mostly at bay in the Atlantic, keeping the exit door open north and northeast? A lot of things to answer here. We can only speak in broad, vague terms right now. Our advice: Stay tuned.

August 16, 2023 Outlook: Is the Atlantic Ocean waking from its mid-summer slumber?

One-sentence summary

There are several tropical systems to track but the most intriguing area to focus on lies in the Gulf of Mexico, where a tropical wave may bring beneficial rains to some lucky area early next week.

Happening now: Three waves to watch

Let’s start out with this morning’s tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center. These are published every six hours during the Atlantic hurricane season, and provide a good overview of where the experts at the Miami-based center expect action over the next seven days.

Seven-day tropical outlook. (National Hurricane Center)

Those orange-blob tropical disturbances in the eastern Atlantic are certainly eye-catching, and this is definitely the time of year when we start to worry about waves moving off of Africa, and traversing the Atlantic Ocean to threaten the United States, Caribbean islands, and Mexico. But I don’t think we’re going to have to worry too much about either of these waves.

The easternmost disturbance has a 40 percent chance of developing, the hurricane center says. I say have at it, because this system is very likely to get pulled northward into the central Atlantic Ocean. The system probably has about five days to become something before conditions become marginal to sustain a tropical storm or hurricane. So a fish storm, maybe.

The closer tropical wave has a 50 percent chance of developing, according to the hurricane center. As Matt noted yesterday, if the wave tracks more westward than northwestward, it will eventually run into some drier air as it approaches the Caribbean. Still, given its potential to get closer to the Caribbean islands, this is a wave probably worth watching a little more closely over the next week. Fortunately, it faces an uphill climb to become anything of note.

The medium range (days 6 to 10): The Gulf wave

Finally, the National Hurricane Center has highlighted a tropical wave forming in the Gulf of Mexico next week, giving it a 20 percent chance of developing. The Gulf is blazing hot, and the old adage I always stick to is that you never want to see a low pressure system there in August or September. However, in this case there are a lot of factors working against the tropical low, including its fairly rapid forward speed. So there are probably a fair number of Gulf coast residents eying the tropical system as a potential salve to drought conditions. Texas, in particular, could use a good soaking.

Whether that happens is going to depend on a rather stout high pressure system over the Central United States. The map below shows a rather intense high developing over Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska and Kansas next week. If the high is too strong, it will force the Gulf system south of the Upper Texas coast and Louisiana. If the high is further south than that, then again, it will force the wave south, toward South Texas. If the high is weaker or further north, it would allow the wave to come to the Upper Texas coast or Louisiana.

It will probably be a day or two before the forecast provides some clarity on where the low will go. (Weather Bell/The Eyewall)

Beyond the Gulf wave, and the two aforementioned systems in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean, there’s not too much else to track in the medium-term.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): No more Mr. Nice Gyre

There is also not much to grab on to in the models right now as we get toward the final few days of August. I do think there’s the potential for some action in the Western Caribbean Sea about 10 days from now, probably related to the Central American Gyre, which is basically a broad monsoonal low-pressure system over Central America. (A more detailed discussion can be found here). There’s no specific threat to point to, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that a tropical low could develop here and lift north into the Gulf of Mexico by late August. As this is super speculative, it’s not something I’m losing sleep about.

Nor should you.