The Eyewall

One-sentence summary

We are all clear for the foreseeable future in the Atlantic!

Happening now: The Atlantic is sheared and the Gulf is rather dry

A one-two punch of factors in addition to climatology is inhibiting tropical development across the Atlantic basin at the moment. Across most of the ocean, you have wind shear. That is also present in the Caribbean today. Wind shear acts to minimize tropical system organization in most cases.

The Gulf? Not a ton of shear! However, the Gulf is loaded up with dry air right now, so any development would be hindered substantially by that. There will be moisture reloading into the Gulf this week, but nothing organized should come from that occurring.

These factors are helping to keep any chance at activity in the Atlantic virtually non-existent this week.

The medium-range (days 6 to 10): Shear and dry air continue

The combination of wind shear and dry air will continue to likely impede any development in the Gulf, Caribbean, or Atlantic through day 10. The Pacific will likely continue to stay a bit busy.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Slumber party?

We continue to slumber in the Atlantic. The GFS operational model, the 4-times daily deterministic guidance that often produces false alarm storms can’t even really latch on to much of anything out into fantasyland, so we’ll continue expecting a quiet outlook for now. I would not be entirely shocked to see something lower-end or close to home try to form in this period, but really, that’s me going on gut and some high-level model data. But it would seem we may be shaping up for a fairly quiet July.

July climatology & June review

Through the end of June, we have amassed a total of 9.8 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) units. ACE is a way to gauge individual storm or season intensity. Units are accumulated by summing how long a storm stays at a particular intensity. We can tally those up by storm or by season to get a number to compare to past storms or seasons. Unfortunately, ACE is not perfect, as you are merely looking at wind speed and duration of wind speed. Hurricanes and tropical storms are more complex than that alone. However, it counts for something.

9.8 units of ACE is actually pretty impressive through the end of June. We should be at about 2.5 units. However, that said, an average season has something on the order of 122 ACE units, which argues that we have about 97 to 98 percent of hurricane season still ahead of us from an intensity perspective. Junes are variable and never usually too crazy, and they don’t mean much in terms of what may be coming the rest of the season. June of 1934 was a particularly big month with 19.5 ACE units from one slow moving hurricane off Central America. That hurricane season ended up near average. 1886 was another pretty wild June with 20.6 ACE units when 3 hurricanes developed, one of them hitting Texas and the other two hitting Florida. That season was active. So again, don’t read into these numbers too much.

So what of July? Well, as you read above, we currently expect a mostly quiet month. We will see how that holds up. But, historically, July is often a quieter month in terms of landfall risks.

July is actually a bit quieter on net in parts of the Gulf of Mexico relative to June. There tends to be a little more action in the Caribbean and near the Lesser Antilles. But the main area of activity appears to be off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with storms that tend to form near the Carolinas and shoot out to sea. So if you want to know where you should be watching, there you go. It’s not really until August that things get going, and the second half of August at that. So, we still have some time. It’s as good a time as any to review your personal situation and prepare in case things do get active.

We will take tomorrow off in observance of Independence Day in the U.S., and we’ll be back with you on Wednesday morning!

One-sentence summary

We will close out June quieter than when it opened in the Atlantic, with no real sign of any meaningful tropical development ahead.

Happening now: Approaching two hurricanes in the Pacific

The Atlantic remains quiet, and it should stay that way through the U.S. holiday Monday and Tuesday.

Eastern Pacific

We continue with an active Pacific basin this morning. Expect to see Adrian begin to diminish over the next day or two as it moves westward out to sea. That said, it really popped overnight with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and a better looking structure. You can even see the eye today.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Beatriz formed yesterday from the depression off Mexico. While Beatriz is not expected to become a particularly strong hurricane, it is rapidly intensifying into one and is likely to deliver impacts to the coast of Mexico.

Hurricane warnings are posted for portions of the coast of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. Tropical Storm conditions should feature on either side of that warning band. On the current track, it will pass very close to Manzanillo, and a landfall cannot be ruled out somewhere on the coast near there. In addition to hurricane impacts on the coast of Mexico, rain totals are expected to tally up to several inches Beatriz comes northwest. Maximum totals in excess of 7 or 8 inches are possible, particularly in some of the coastal terrain between Oaxaca and Mazatlán, which could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.

While Beatriz is not a gigantic storm, it is one that should be taken seriously on the coast of Mexico.

The medium-range (days 6-10): Wetting the Gulf

We have two areas of storminess that should develop later next week, but neither looks to be a particularly serious threat to develop. The first will be in the Gulf, where weakening high pressure over Texas will allow for moisture to increase and more frequent showers and storms to develop.

Again, no development is expected, but it’s always a good idea to keep tabs on the Gulf. Meanwhile, the second area continues to come in the far northern Atlantic, where a handful of ensemble members (individual runs of the models that help form a spread of possible outcomes) from the models show some potential development of something, be it extratropical or subtropical in nature. Nothing to worry about, but a curiosity to perhaps look for next week.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): All’s quiet

As of now, we don’t see anything of note in the Atlantic basin for the day 10 or later period. July will likely do normal July things.

One-sentence summary

The Atlantic looks to remain mostly quiet, while the Pacific heats up over the next week or so.

Happening now: Dust in the wind

The Atlantic remains under the influence of a good bit of dust. Honestly, this doesn’t look terribly impressive. But it is more than we’ve had for much of the nascent season to date.

Dust will move into the Caribbean into the weekend. It may eventually make it to portions of far South Florida and the Gulf by Monday or Tuesday and then eventually the northern Gulf Coast later next week. Dust should be at its worst in the Caribbean before thinning out as it comes west. Dust will continue to impact most of the Caribbean islands well into next week, with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola really seeing a fair bit in the air. Additional dust may emerge off Africa later next week.

Aside from the dust, the Atlantic remains quiet, with just an area of thunderstorms south of Bermuda that has a very low probability of developing. No significant impacts are currently expected on the island.

Pacific

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Americas, the Pacific is heating up.

Hurricane Adrian strengthened, as expected yesterday. It’s now a category 1 hurricane with 85 mph maximum sustained winds. It is headed out to sea and will not impact land as it weakens in the coming days.

Behind Adrian, Tropical Depression Two-E developed late yesterday. It is expected to graze the coast of Mexico as it moves northwest. As a result, tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for the west coast of Mexico from north of Manzanillo southeast to Punta Maldonado.

The exact center may maneuver some over the coming day or two, which could impact just how close this gets to the coast of Mexico, but it will probably become a strong tropical storm or hurricane as long as it stays over the water. However, it will run out of runway for strengthening by the end of the weekend and should weaken before getting to Cabo.

There may be a third system sometime later next week as well. As you’d expect in an El Niño year, the Pacific should be revving up some.

The medium-range (days 6-10): Nothing of note

All looks quiet for now in the medium range. If there is some place to watch, it would be the Gulf of Mexico, as some tropical moisture may work in there next week. As of now, it seems highly unlikely that anything of note would come of that, but as always, we’ll keep tabs on things.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Not much to worry over!

At risk of sounding like a broken record, the longer-range looks quiet right now as well. If we want to dig, I do see some ensemble members doing some funky things in the far north Atlantic, away from any land. Remember, we have operational models, which are single, deterministic model runs, and ensemble models, which are those models tweaked a little bit and run 30 to 50 different times to give us a spread of possible outcomes. The European model just underwent a significant upgrade in the ensemble model resolution that should improve its performance in tropical systems. We’ll be watching that intently this season. Anyway, there are some ensemble members on both the American (GFS) and European models that try to form something between Atlantic Canada and Bermuda late, but other than that, we see nothing of note out there in fantasyland.

More tomorrow!

One-sentence summary

The Atlantic is beginning to ease into more of a typical, somewhat quieter pattern for now, while the Pacific wakes up from slumber.

Happening now: Yo Adrian!

Not a whole lot to discuss in the Atlantic today, as shear and dust dominate things. Cindy’s remnants are done. We’re now watching a second disturbance east of there that has a very low chance at development. The chances of that have fallen since the weekend though.

We’re not always going to talk about the Pacific, but hey, it’s the first storm of the season for that basin, so let’s take a look at Adrian.

Adrian has 65 mph winds, and it is in an environment conducive for more intensification. The storm is likely to push west over the next several days, strengthening into a hurricane later today. By later this weekend, it will likely begin to weaken over the open Pacific, as it encounters more wind shear and cooler waters.

So, no harm no foul. Behind Adrian, there is a second system that has high odds of developing in the coming days. That would acquire the name Beatriz. It’s been a slow start in the Pacific this season, which is very abnormal for an El Niño year. With the Atlantic calming and the Pacific picking up, this is more of what we’d expect in late June and early July.

The medium-range (days 6-10): Noise but no substance

The medium-range period looks a bit more interesting in that there should be a bit more thunderstorm activity in the Gulf and Caribbean next week. However, that seems unlikely (at this point) to translate into any meaningful development. Wind shear looks to be a bit above average most of next week in the key areas where moisture will begin to pool. So, given that, probably a period where the chance of development is not zero — but it’s fairly close to zero.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Nothing of note in the Atlantic

The good news is that we aren’t seeing a whole lot of signal for organization to anything late. The GFS operational model continues periodically throwing a spurious storm our way in the Gulf or Caribbean, but it has been doing that off and on for weeks now. So, we’ll anticipate a quiet period into mid-July for now!