Matt Lanza

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One-sentence summary

Nigel is expected to swirl out to sea through the week, while we watch the next wave off Africa as perhaps making it a little farther west, as well as a potential lower-end system off the Southeast this weekend.

Near-term: Margot & Nigel

We’ll use this week to sort of recharge after 3 weeks of Lee, which was preceded by Idalia. This patterns can really take a lot out of you, and it’s important to pace yourself during hurricane season as a resident, forecaster, or decision-maker. At present, we’ve got one system out there and a second or even third that we’ll see toward the weekend.

Nigel is not a big deal in terms of impacts. It will likely become a major hurricane as it lifts north and eventually northeast. While Nigel will likely turn out to sea before affecting any land, it will probably (again) kick up surf for Bermuda. Nigel seems to fit the theme of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

Meanwhile, Margot got the downgrade yesterday, losing tropical characteristics. It will meander in the eastern Atlantic for a few more days.

The medium range (days 6 to 10): Ophelia (?) in the Atlantic and watching the Southeast

The National Hurricane Center has tagged the next disturbance to move off Africa with about a 70 percent chance of development over the next 7 days. There’s a slight chance this could develop at the end of the near-term, but for our purposes, we’ll focus on this for the medium-range.

Anyway, this wave seems to have a decent shot at perhaps becoming a depression by about Thursday or Friday. This one has a little more uncertainty behind it in terms of track. If this thing can come out of the gate roaring and quickly develop, it will almost certainly follow Nigel or Lee or something in between and curve north quickly, avoiding the Caribbean islands again. If this disturbance struggles late this week and weekend and fails to organize, it will likely come west, with at least some chance of getting to the islands. It’s a little early to say much more about it than that, but it’s at least worth checking in on again Wednesday or Thursday to see what has happened. Really, the only thing we’ll be keeping an eye on the next couple days will be odds it develops quickly, which right now *seem* high, but you never can be too sure.

The other system to watch may or may not be a thing, but the NHC is giving it a slight chance to happen by the weekend. An upper level dip in the jet stream over the Southeast and Florida may allow a surface low to develop off the Florida coast by Friday or Saturday. If that happens, it will have a slight chance to develop into a tropical or (more likely) subtropical entity.

In all likelihood, it would probably track north, slowly, toward the Carolinas, and I would imagine that the intensity ceiling on this one would be fairly low. In other words, we’ll probably see slow, lower-end development, not rapid, high-end development. So, something to watch, but probably not something to fret much about. As of now, the vast majority of the rain associated with the upper low or potential system would be focused offshore. But any tropical system could kick the surf up again in this area, and we could see issues with beach erosion and such. We’ll keep you posted.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): No specific concerns

I don’t necessarily have an opinion today on the long range portion of the forecast. I don’t see anything scary on any modeling, but I’m not actually convinced it will be quiet. So this is a true “punt” on the forecast right now. But the key point is nothing specific stands out right now. We’ll keep you posted.

One-sentence summary

Post-tropical cyclone Lee is on its way across the Gulf of St. Lawrence and should be completely out of the picture by tomorrow morning, tracking well south of Greenland.

Post-tropical Lee: 45 mph, moving NE 22 mph

We first started talking about Lee as it was about to become Invest 95L back in the closing days of August while Idalia was readying to impact Florida. When we say hurricane season is a marathon, not a sprint, this is what we mean. Now, mercifully after nearly 3 weeks of tracking, Lee is implementing its exit strategy across the Gulf of St. Lawrence and eventually out to sea.

Lee’s center is off the coast of PEI and moving toward the Great Northern Peninsula in Newfoundland. Lingering tropical storm conditions will continue over PEI, portions of Nova Scotia, and Iles-de-la-Madeleine. Gusty winds are expected in Newfoundland, but impacts should be relatively minor. Rough surf will continue across Atlantic Canada, but any risk of damaging tidal flooding has diminished.

Rain totals were a bit spread out, but I found over 5 inches near Eastport, ME, almost 5 inches (125mm) near Fredericton in New Brunswick, and there were reports of around 100mm in Gaspe in Quebec and Grand Manan just east of Maine.

Nova Scotia power reports about 75,000 customers without power as of 11 AM (ADT), there are about 12,000 without power in New Brunswick, and about 40,000 in Maine.

That about closes the book on Lee.

Elsewhere

We’ll go into more detail on this tomorrow or Tuesday, but the rest of the Atlantic is busy but of no concern. For now. Nigel and Margot will not impact land, though Margot could brush the Azores as a remnant depression. The next wave, which the NHC gives a 40 percent chance of development over the next week is worth watching, particularly in the Caribbean, as there are questions as to exactly what the steering pattern in the Atlantic is going to look like when it gets there.

I would say the odds still favor a track north of the islands, but confidence in this is far less than it was for Lee, Margot, and Nigel.

Otherwise, there is at least reason to watch near Florida this week, as an upper low may develop in the neighborhood. While that seems unlikely to lead to a surface low developing, you never can be certain. Regardless, it means increasing rain chances for Florida and perhaps the Bahamas and Southeast. We’ll see how things evolve. More tomorrow.

One-sentence summary

Lee is on track to deliver mostly expected impacts to Atlantic Canada and Maine today, with heavy rain ongoing in Maine, a 2 foot surge so far in Canada, and wind gusts as high as hurricane-force so far in portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

Hurricane Lee (now-post-tropical): 80 mph, moving N 25 mph

Lee was determined to be post-tropical, which means it’s now essentially a gigantic nor’easter instead of a tropically-derived hurricane. It means absolutely nothing other than a classification change. Impacts are identical to forecast.

Lee is flinging very heavy rain onshore in Maine right now, with a band of torrential rain between Fredericton, NB and Acadia National Park.

Meanwhile, wind gusts have been ticking up around the region, with Grand Manan as high as 123 km/hr (77 mph), Halifax as high as 117 km/hr (73 mph), Mt. Washington, NH to 74 mph, St. John, NB to 85 km/hr (53 mph), Nantucket to 55 mph, and Eastport, ME to 62 mph.

The high tide cycle ongoing right now, as well as the next one this evening will be the highest for these areas. Yarmouth, NS is seeing about a 0.6m (2 ft) surge, Halifax 0.7m, and St. John about 0.5m. These are generally in line with expectations, maybe a smidge under. Surge of up to 1.5m (5 ft) is possible in Nova Scotia. With Lee’s center still technically south of Nova Scotia, the highest surge is yet to come. In addition, some potent waves will be coming ashore in Nova Scotia as well, with a buoy near Lee’s center at 8 AM AST reporting 30 foot waves.

So I think the takeaway here right now: Worst is over for southern New England, and it was handled pretty well as expected. Maine, particularly Downeast are in the height of the storm now, and it will wind down this afternoon. Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and PEI will be in the height of the storm shortly if not already, and it will wind down tonight.

Elsewhere

Tropical Storm Margot may turn toward the Azores next week, while weakening and becoming a post-tropical cyclone.

Tropical Depression 15 should become Nigel today, if not by the next advisory. It is expected to become a hurricane out at sea, while re-curving east of Bermuda.

Another potential Cabo Verde system may try to slowly develop later next week, but that is not a guarantee. The Gulf looks quiet, as does the Caribbean. Otherwise, things look generally quiet elsewhere too. We’ll let you know if that changes.