Tropical Storm Cindy degenerated into an open wave yesterday, but there is at least a little chance the storm tries to give it another go near Bermuda on its way out to sea.
Happening now: Cindy slumps
Cindy was downgraded to an open wave last night, ending the current chapter of the storm. You can still see the remnant circulation this morning, virtually achieving “naked swirl” status.
Cindy’s remnants lack any real thunderstorm activity, while the system tracks off to the north and west, passing well north of the Caribbean islands. (Tropical Tidbits)
That said, there is some chance we are not done with Cindy just yet. The remnants are in a very high shear environment right now, so that’s what has helped shred it up. But as it tracks northwest, that shear may relax some, allowing for the system to regenerate thunderstorms and possibly reorganize. Why does this even matter over the open Atlantic, you ask? Because this would happen not very far from Bermuda. Not that we’re expecting a major storm for Bermuda. But it at least keeps Cindy alive and worth discussing over the next few days. The National Hurricane Center is assigning a 30 percent chance that this occurs.
Cindy’s remnants may attempt to redevelop as the system passes Bermuda later this week. (NOAA)
Whatever the case, seeing a storm in this part of the Atlantic in June remains odd and speaks to just how warm the waters are. We will keep an eye on this as it meanders north, but again for Bermuda, while it’s good to keep tabs on things, it’s not too serious a threat.
The medium-range (days 6-10): Caribbean incoherence
I would expect to see some more storms (Editor’s note: Disorganized showers & thunderstorms, not organized storms!) developing in the Caribbean as we head toward next week. Right now, it does not appear anything meaningful is going to come of it, but we will see showers and storms likely recharging in parts of the Caribbean. There will likely be dust and wind shear around to keep a lid on any sort of development. But that won’t stop some models from showing spuriously strong systems in the Gulf or Caribbean at times. For now, nothing to worry about.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): The GFS doing it again
As noted above, the GFS continues to fire off systems with a lack of any real consistency in terms of time or place, much as it did earlier the month. With the Caribbean likely to see some moisture around this time, you always have to at least watch. But a lack of any real meaningful ensemble support from models (meaning when we run the models 30 to 50 different times we get no real consistent outcomes) leads me to believe we won’t see anything too big here. More tomorrow!
Bret’s center has cleared the islands, but heavy rain remains behind it, as Tropical Storm Cindy scurries about over the open Atlantic.
Happening now: Bret about to enter the Caribbean graveyard, Cindy doing its own thing
Tropical Storm Bret
Bret is not the first storm, nor will it be the last storm to enter the eastern Caribbean and be devoured by wind shear. We call this part of the Atlantic a hurricane graveyard. And that’s actually rooted in science. Many storms enter this part of the basin and fizzle out. It has to do with a low level jet (strong winds about 5,000 feet up) and wind shear that is particularly enhanced during El Niño summers such as this one. Bret is feeling that now, and the feeling will grow in the coming days.
Bret has a lot of storms associated with it, but it looks very disheveled at the moment.
Bret is marching through the Caribbean now, but heavy rain and storms trail the center back across the islands south of Guadeloupe. (Tropical Tidbits)
But, just looking at that satellite loop above, you aren’t thinking 60 mph tropical storm. For all intents and purpose, Bret will be lucky to survive into tomorrow.
Bret’s forecast shows weakening into an open wave by the time it gets south of Jamaica this weekend. (NOAA)
Bret will continue due west until it degenerates into an open tropical wave sometime before it gets south of Jamaica.
Impacts from Bret will be in the form of rainfall and choppy seas, neither of which look especially serious at this time. Another 1 to 3 inches of rain are possible from Dominica south through St. Vincent and the Grenadines or Grenada. Some downpours may even clip Bonaire, Curacao, or Aruba on the way out, but nothing serious is expected there.
Otherwise, we can say bye to Bret.
Tropical Storm Cindy
To the east of the islands, Tropical Depression 4 developed into Tropical Storm Cindy late last night, our third named storm and fourth overall of 2023. Thankfully, Cindy is not a threat to land, and it will experience a relatively quick demise in the days ahead.
Tropical Storm Cindy will strengthen a bit more before it succumbs to shear or dry air in the Atlantic early next week. (NOAA)
Cindy looks like a blob this morning, clearly fighting wind shear. The thunderstorms are displaced to the south and west of the center.
Cindy’s thunderstorms are almost entirely displaced south and west of the center of circulation. It’s a tropical storm but not a healthy one. (Tropical Tidbits)
Over the next couple days, Cindy will gradually turn northwest, likely struggling a bit the whole way. Shear and dry air will take a toll, and Cindy will degenerate into an open wave next week, north and east of the islands. It is no threat to land at this time.
The medium-range (days 6-10): Quieting down
Cindy’s remnants will turn northward and probably remain disorganized in some capacity possibly near Bermuda at some point. But it could bring a bout of unsettled weather to the island. That third tropical wave behind Cindy is unlikely to develop. Elsewhere, there’s nothing to speak of, and we should enter July on a quiet note.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Nothing expected
At this time, nothing is expected to cause issues through July 10th or so. I do think we’ll begin to see moisture return to the western Gulf as high pressure that’s been baking Texas and Mexico begins to shift away. But from this distance at least, it does not appear anything will develop.
Tropical Storm Bret is a feisty fellow this morning. It’s about as strong as you can get for a tropical storm before becoming a hurricane. Again, keep in mind that these 70 mph winds are in a small area, not over the entirety of the storm. Hazards such as heavy rain and rough surf will be bigger issues for most of the impacted islands. The good news is that Bret will likely peak in intensity soon before beginning a weakening trend leading to its demise this weekend. Behind Bret, Invest 93L was upgraded to Tropical Depression 4 overnight. It is currently no threat to land.
One-sentence summary
While the Atlantic is bustling with action, the main item to watch is Tropical Storm Bret which will impact the Lesser Antilles with heavy rain, rough seas, and gusty winds today before exiting into the Caribbean and dissipating this weekend.
Tropical Storm Bret won’t win any awards for appearance, but it is trying its hardest to fight off the shear that is inhibiting its organization. (Tropical Tidbits)
Happening now: An August-like Atlantic with TS Bret and TD 4
It’s not often we have two Atlantic storms in June, let alone simultaneous ones, but these are not normal times. Here’s the latest.
TS Bret
Per the National Hurricane Center (NHC) discussion this morning, there were some pretty healthy winds measured overnight in Bret, but they were pretty isolated. Bret is trying to form an eye, but because of shear, that eye feature is displaced east of the surface center. In plain language: Bret is trying hard to fight the shear but it can only do so much. Here is a more annotated look at Bret’s structure this morning.
Tropical Storm Bret is clearly battling shear as it struggles to organize with a low-level center displaced from a mid-level eye feature, as well as raggedness that allows you to “see” the shear. (Tropical Tidbits)
Anyway, the NHC has set the intensity to 70 mph, which again is in a small area. Bret’s biggest impacts to the islands will be via heavy rain and rough seas.
Bret continues to move due west and will pass through the central islands of the Lesser Antilles tonight before dissipating in the Caribbean this weekend. (NOAA)
As of the 5 AM AST advisory:
Tropical Storm Warning (TS conditions likely within 36 hours): St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica Hurricane Watch (Hurricane conditions possible within 48 hours): St. Lucia Tropical Storm Watch (TS conditions possible within 48 hours): Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Expect Bret to pass near or make landfall on St. Lucia tonight. In terms of wind, the strongest winds will be along and north of where the center tracks, so St. Lucia and Martinique are likely to see the most gusty conditions and the best chance at sustained tropical storm force winds. The higher terrain of some of these islands will be most exposed to strong winds. Given Bret’s size, tropical storm force winds and gusts could extend from Barbados and St. Vincent north to Dominica. Most places will not see the 70 mph winds, however.
Rough seas will be the most widespread concern. They will continue to build today, with 8 to 11 foot seas expected as the storm approaches and passes in much of the central part of the island chain.
Rain totals will vary, but as much as 6 to 10 inches is possible, especially across the higher terrain of St. Lucia and St. Vincent. Generally 3 to 6 inches surrounds that. Flash flooding will be possible. (Weathernerds.org)
Rainfall may be the most serious concern with as much as 6 to 10 inches of rain, especially at higher terrain. The most likely islands to experience those higher end totals would be St. Lucia and St. Vincent. But I would not be shocked to see some higher end totals on Dominica, Barbados, or Martinique also. In general, 3 to 6 inches of rain will fall, but totals will ultimately vary.
Why are we confident that Bret will dissipate in the Caribbean? It will run into a face-ripping amount of wind shear. That’s never good for tropical systems, and Bret will be the next in a long line of storms to enter the Caribbean and not survive the trip.
Bret will run into a potent amount of wind shear head on in the Caribbean, which should essentially rip it to shreds. (Tropical Tidbits)
So to summarize: We are mainly watching rough seas and heavy rain with Bret from Dominica south to Grenada, although a few areas will see some considerable winds, as Bret is a strong tropical storm.
Tropical Depression 4
Looking east of Bret, we have TD 4. This system does not look especially well-organized this morning, but it may do just enough in the next day or two to attain tropical storm status. The next name is Cindy.
TD 4 is a little one, also fighting off wind shear. It may strengthen to Tropical Storm Cindy over the next day or two. (Weathernerds.org)
The forecast for TD 4 is pretty straightforward. It will be more apt to turn northwest into a weakness between high pressure systems in the Atlantic, which should allow it to run head on into wind shear by Sunday or Monday.
Tropical Depression 4 is expected to become TS Cindy, but it will work northwest into shear and eventually dissipate early next week. (NOAA)
Whatever the case, this system is currently no real threat to land.
The medium range (days 6-10): Beginning to settle down a bit
There is another wave trailing TD 4, but as of right now support for that to develop seems to have dropped off some. So at this point, we don’t expect anything meaningful in days six through ten.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Nothing of note
There is nothing of note out in the long-range. Hopefully after TD 4 (or Cindy) we get a couple weeks of quiet.
Tropical Storm Bret has had a good day for itself, strengthening a bit and taking on a more aesthetically pleasing look on satellite.
The sun sets on Bret on Wednesday evening. Bret is a formidable tropical storm with 65 mph winds. (Tropical Tidbits)
Bret has some good thunderstorms near its center, but it is still clearly fighting some shear. Most of the forecast has not changed for that reason, so we will take a quick look at what to expect in the islands over the next few days.
One-sentence summary
Bret is a moderate to strong tropical storm that will bring waves, some gusty winds, and locally heavy rain to central portions of the Lesser Antilles tomorrow and Friday.
Bret’s impacts
Wind shear is expected to keep Bret from further intensifying much. Yes, there is a chance that Bret could become a top-end tropical storm or category one hurricane briefly tonight or tomorrow. But given the environment around the storm, this is not the most likely scenario. Bret will maintain a due west or west-northwest course, which brings it on track to enter the Caribbean probably near Barbados or St. Lucia. Since Bret is a rather large storm (tropical storm force winds extend out 105 miles from the center), impacts will be felt far from Bret’s center.
Bret is still expected to plow west across the islands in the vicinity of Barbados, St. Lucia, or Martinique, with impacts felt a couple islands away on either side of those goalposts. (NOAA)
As of early Wednesday evening, here’s a rundown of watches and warnings:
Tropical Storm Warning (TS conditions likely within 36 hours): St. Lucia, Martinique Tropical Storm Watch (TS conditions possible within 48 hours): Barbados, Dominica, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines
The strongest winds will probably be on the north side of the storm, so places like Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica will likely see the strongest gusts. While there could be some locally strong winds south of there, Bret will likely be a bit lopsided. Stronger winds may impact the Windward Islands from St. Vincent and the Grenadines south to Grenada on the backside of the storm Friday into early Saturday. Overall, while wind impacts are something to prepare for in the islands, they are not considered too serious at this point.
Some fairly substantial swells will be possible on the coast of the central and southern islands. Waves may be as high as 8 to 12 feet per forecasts from the Barbados Meteorological Services. This will lead to erosion, rip currents, and dangerous surf.
Rainfall will also be an issue as Bret pushes through. Thankfully, it continues to move at a healthy clip, so that limits just how much rain may fall, but that does not mean it won’t come with some issues. Roughly 3 to 6 inches will be possible, especially along and north of the track. Isolated amounts of up to 7 or 8 inches are certainly possible.
Updated forecast rain totals from the ECMWF model show a band of 4 to 6 inches from Barbados through St. Lucia and St. Vincent. Isolated higher amounts will be possible, with a general 1 to 3 inches on either side of that band. (Weathernerds.org)
Some flash flooding is possible, but again, we’re fortunate that this is moving along quickly.
Bret is still expected to degenerate into an open wave once in the Caribbean as it encounters some extremely potent wind shear. Confidence in that outcome should be considered above average.
We will have another update for you around 7 AM CDT Thursday morning.
