August 4, 2023 Outlook: Any calm weekend you get in August is a good one

One-sentence summary

While there are a few things to keep tabs on heading into later next week, there is nothing currently expected to develop over the next three to five days.

Happening now: Central & Eastern Atlantic popping off

One look at satellite over the Atlantic, and you’ll probably ask how many storms we may see develop over the next few days. The answer is probably none.

The bright colors on the satellite image above indicate various areas of thunderstorms and tropical waves coming west across the Atlantic. While they look menacing, there is little to no organization expected from these waves over the next several days. (Weathernerds.org)

Yes, we have several beefy looking tropical waves out there, but the combination of shear and dry air will probably inhibit these waves from developing. That doesn’t mean they can’t develop. Stranger things have happened, but over the next five days or so, there is evidence enough to believe they will not develop. So let’s enjoy a quiet August weekend in the tropics!

The medium range (days 6 to 10): What will that wave do?

Where things get a bit more interesting is the medium range. What will these waves do? As they comes west, they’ll eventually run into the Caribbean. From there there are some options. We could see something go into the Caribbean, in which case it may struggle due to wind shear. It could go across the islands, in which case it may struggle due to land interaction. Less likely but possible, it could track just north of the islands, which, who knows. Either way, none of these scenarios is likely to lead to a significant storm developing at this point. But, if it can maintain coherence through the period, then maybe it threatens to develop in the “fantasyland” portion of the forecast.

Just to emphasize what we’re talking about, here is the GFS model forecast on day 9, which show three distinctive areas of possible development, ranging from the Gulf to the southwest Atlantic. None of these are likely to develop by this point, but they are worth watching.

There are a few things to watch, but nothing that is necessarily likely to develop in the medium range. (Tropical Tidbits)

Any of these is a development candidate beyond day 10. Maybe.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Behind this wave is _____?

The bulk of our fantasyland period will be dictated by the wave in the medium range as noted above. Aside from that, it actually looks kind of quiet beyond day 10, which is somewhat surprising. There seems to be a fair bit of wind shear and dry air still holding court across the Atlantic, which may keep further development in check. The best “forcing” for tropical development may remain in the Pacific, which is actually pretty standard for El Niño. We will see how it all shakes out in the days ahead.

August 3, 2023 Outlook: Eastern Atlantic tropical wave is the next area to watch

One-sentence summary

No tropical development is expected over the next few days, but there is some chance that a tropical wave coming west across the Atlantic will make an attempt heading through next week.

Happening now: All noise, no substance for now

Looking out over the Atlantic’s main development region (MDR) this morning, there is definitely some thunderstorm action but there is nothing near organization.

No organization to anything right now in the Atlantic, but thunderstorm activity continues. (Weathernerds.org)

I’m not sure that I would assign a zero percent chance to this developing, but over the next 2 to 4 days or so, there is surely nothing imminent from the slop out there. Either way, look for storms to gradually work west or west-northwest across the Atlantic basin.

The medium range (days 6 to 10): Same story, same places

As we watch the Atlantic’s MDR over the next several days with these emergent waves, I don’t think the medium range will offer a whole heck of a lot different: Keep watching the MDR. There are no signs right now of anything close to home, and the north Atlantic looks quiet at this point. So we’ll keep watching between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Caribbean. If anything were to really get going from this stuff, it would probably wait until it got closer to the islands or the Americas.

Let’s briefly talk about what is expected out around day 7 or so. If we look at the forecast upper level map from the European ensemble mean (an average of about 50 different European model runs), we can see two areas of high pressure. One is over Texas and Mexico; another is over the Atlantic, southeast of Bermuda.

With a tropical wave near the Lesser Antilles on day 7, it should progress west into the Caribbean or islands, bringing additional rain chances to that region. It will probably still struggle to develop. (Tropical Tidbits)

What this setup should do is take the tropical wave, assuming it doesn’t develop, and steer it west toward the Caribbean islands. So I would anticipate some better rain chances in that region by midweek next week. Beyond that, the pattern should allow for the wave to continue west toward the Gulf, unlikely to develop still by late in the period.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Nothing coherent, but stay tuned

If you believe the GFS operational model, the wave discussed above will develop at some point in the Gulf. I’m skeptical that will happen, surely as shown by the GFS, but given this is 10 days or more out there’s enough reason to keep watching the progress of this wave.

Overall, there is certainly more persistent “noise” in the extended forecast right now, but beyond monitoring that one wave, there is little else specific for us to really latch onto. So the moral of the story at this point is to just keep watching. We’ll almost certainly have something to talk about before the end of the month.

August 2, 2023 Outlook: A warning from the UK Met Office on the forthcoming season

One-sentence summary

There is one area in the Central Atlantic that we’re tracking, but we don’t expect it to develop; otherwise things are blissfully quiet for early August.

Approaching “go” time for the Atlantic season

The start of August means that we’re now just a couple of weeks from when activity in the Atlantic Ocean often starts to pick up. The outlook this season is complicated because of several factors. One is that sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin are absolutely sizzling. During the last month the “main development region,” a stretch of tropical water between Africa and the Caribbean Sea where most major Atlantic hurricanes develop, the sea surface temperature averaged 82.4° Fahrenheit, a full degree above any previous July. This trend will certainly continue into the heart of hurricane season, and is very concerning.

Overall, British forecasters anticipate about twice as much tropical activity as normal. (Met Office)

At the same time, with El Niño active in the Pacific Ocean, we’re seeing somewhat higher wind shear and sinking air over the Atlantic Ocean. So far, this has helped to dampen activity in the deep tropics. But we’re about to get to the point in the season where the African wave train rumbles to life, and it’s not clear to me that there will be enough shear to overpower the formation of some very strong and threatening hurricanes. To that end, the United Kingdom’s Met Office released an updated seasonal forecast that calls for a very busy season with 19 named storms and, worryingly, 6 major hurricanes. Overall, based on the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, the British forecasters anticipate about twice as much activity as normal.

Seasonal forecasts are just a guide, of course. But we’re going to need to keep a close eye on the tropics for the next 10 to 12 weeks.

Happening now: A disorganized wave

The only system of note in the Atlantic tropics right now is a tropical wave several hundred miles east of Bermuda. It’s struggling at the moment, but has a slight chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next week. As its contending against dust and shear, I’d guess the end is near. But we’ll see. Regardless, it’s not a threat to land anywhere so we can pretty much ignore it. (Well, that is, we could ignore it if we weren’t a website dedicated to covering tropical activity in the Atlantic basin).

Is the end nigh for this little guy? (National Hurricane Center)

The medium range (days 6 to 10): Off the coast of Africa

As Matt noted on Tuesday, a tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa at present could be something to watch in a week or so as it slowly plods across the Atlantic Ocean. If this becomes a tropical depression, due to steering currents in the Atlantic, it probably would move toward the Caribbean Sea. Still, this is no sure thing, and probably not something we should be too concerned about at the moment.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): All quiet on the Western front?

In the overnight runs we’re not seeing the global models get too excited about anything in the next two weeks. That doesn’t mean nothing will happen, it’s just that right now there is nothing obvious out there that will become a problem. The tropics are unpredictable like that.

August 1, 2023 Outlook: Welcome to August, when hurricane season gets more complex

One-sentence summary

There are a couple things down the road to monitor, but in the near-term Invest 96L is beginning to run short on time, as generally dry air and wind shear hinder it from organizing.

Happening now: Invest 96L struggling

One of the things that has stood out to me personally this hurricane season so far (and granted, it’s still early) is that modeling has been very hellbent on at least 3 or 4 systems developing that have never gotten past the invest or depression stage. It indicates to me that there is some sort of disconnect between what makes meteorological sense (what the models would depict) and reality. It’s clear that there has been some sort of inhibiting factor that is limiting storm development this season. So far.

Invest 96L is another feather in that cap, as it is struggling this morning, despite odds as high as 80 percent for development yesterday.

Invest 96L looks no better organized today than it did yesterday, as it continues to lift northward. Development chances are roughly 50/50 now. (Weathernerds.org)

Those odds are down to 50 percent this morning, and quite frankly, we’re going to run out of time. 96L has been dealing with a lot of wind shear of late, and that surely is not helping matters. It seems to also be embedded within a residual Saharan air layer pocket, which means it’s also struggling with some dust and drier air.

Some residual Saharan dust indicating dry air may be helping to inhibit 96L, as tropical systems cannot thrive in dry air masses. (Tropical Tidbits)

Whatever the case, if 96L develops or not, its future is pretty clear that it will turn out to sea and run out of time to develop by about Thursday or Friday. It will not impact land.

Elsewhere, the next few days look quiet.

The medium range (days 6 to 10): A wave to watch, maybe

If we squint, maybe the tropical wave emerging off Africa today and tomorrow has a chance to do something. This will plod west over the next several days, unlikely to develop, initially. If we look at the day 9 forecast for the upper air pattern over the Atlantic, a sprawling area of high pressure is expected to focus near and just south of Bermuda.

Any tropical wave that tries to develop in the Atlantic heading into next week should be directed around the southern periphery of high pressure near Bermuda and toward the Caribbean initially. (Tropical Tidbits)

This will likely force any tropical wave to initially go south and west toward the Caribbean. Thereafter, there are many questions. You can see another high over Texas on this European ensemble forecast above. Options would include the wave staying in the Caribbean if either high pressure can check in stronger or something “splitting the gap” between the two high pressure centers as explicitly shown above. Or something else. It’s early. So we’ll keep an eye on things and see if this becomes actually something to watch or just another tropical wave that fails to find a home in the Atlantic.

Fantasyland (beyond day 10): GFS going wild

Yesterday, the 12z GFS model brought a healthy storm into the Southeast U.S. after developing it from some sort of shenanigans off the Southeast coast. Interestingly, it repeated that overnight and brought a storm into the Gulf. That won’t happen as shown, but I am wondering if some of this is just the models failing to “resolve” the tropical wave shown above. Any ensemble support for development in Fantasyland seems to be connected to that wave. So the activity showing up here may be linked to what we see in the medium range. Either way, it appears things may get at least a little more active here, though how much so remains to be seen. Admittedly, I am a bit more intrigued by <waves hands> all this than I have been by much this season. We’ll keep watch.