Between August 19 and 21 we saw the formation of a flurry of tropical storms—Gert, Emily, Franklin, and Harold. The first two storms remained at sea and did not affect any landmasses, although Emily may be resurrected later this week. Harold moved inland into South Texas, bringing largely beneficial rains to the Rio Grande Valley, and is now rapidly dissipating over Northern Mexico.
That leaves Tropical Storm Franklin, which is presently near Hispaniola and is a threat to bring heavy rainfall there and in other Caribbean locations. We’ll start with Franklin, and then look at what else might be lurking out in the Atlantic tropics.
A satellite view of the tropics as of Wednesday morning. (NOAA)
Tropical Storm Franklin
The system has improved its circulation overnight, and as of 8 am ET packed sustained winds of 50 mph. This is probably the top end of its strength for now. For the rest of today it will slowly move north, across Hispaniola, brining heavy rainfall and potentially mudslides to the Dominican Republic and Haiti. By tonight, it could also bring tropical storm conditions to Turks and Caicos.
Franklin is likely to weaken somewhat today as it interacts with the landmass of Hispaniola, and also struggles with wind shear. The intensity forecast is complicated later this week, as the system moves north of the Caribbean Sea. Sea surface temperatures are plenty hot, but wind shear could put a damper on the system. The National Hurricane Center predicts that Franklin will become a Category 1 hurricane this weekend, but my confidence in such a forecast is low.
Official forecast track for Franklin. (National Hurricane Center)
By early next week we’re going to have to watch the track of Franklin closely, as the system may come near Bermuda as it starts to meander north. Like with the intensity forecast, I would not place high confidence a in track forecast for the storm after this weekend.
Rain accumulations of 20 to 25 cm (8 to 10 inches) are possible over parts of Hispaniola today and tomorrow due to Franklin. (Weather Bell
Emily, zombie-fied
Do you remember Tropical Storm Emily? It’s OK if you don’t. The storm produced some gale force winds for several hours on Sunday, in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, and then succumbed to dry air. However, the remains of Emily have started to show signs of organizing as the storm finds more favorable conditions over the central Atlantic. It has a pretty decent chance of regenerating in the days ahead.
Nevertheless, this system is not something to get worked up about. It may noodle about the Northern Atlantic as a fish storm, but I don’t think it’s going to pass near land. Certainly, we won’t see this Emily in Paris.
What else is out there?
We’re watching a few other problematic areas, but there’s nothing that gives me too much concern. Frankly, this is a pretty good place to be in as we approach the end of August and early September.
For several days we have mentioned the possibility of a system spinning up in the Western Caribbean Sea and then moving north into the Gulf of Mexico, but there’s still not a whole lot of model support for that. In fact, my concerns are lessening there. The second watch area lies in the eastern Atlantic Ocean, where we will see new tropical waves moving off the coast of Africa. Those may eventually become a threat, but as of now there’s no concrete concerns to point to.
Tropical Storm Harold will make landfall soon near South Padre Island, TX bringing rain and storms to Texas and Mexico, while Tropical Storm Franklin is struggling in the Caribbean but still aiming to bring heavy rain to Hispaniola.
Tropical Storm Harold
Tropical Depression 9 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Harold overnight. In a twist of minor irony, Harold will make landfall about 100 miles south of the storm whose name it replaced (Harvey) on the Texas coast in about 4 to 6 hours.
Tropical Storm Harold is just a few hours from making landfall, likely near South Padre Island. (NOAA NHC)
Harold is struggling a bit this morning in terms of organization. It has 45 mph maximum sustained winds, but it is clearly dealing with a hostile environment for quick organization. There have been wind gusts as high as 46 mph in Corpus Christi and south of there, mostly in heavier showers.
Wind gusts have been as strong as 46 mph in Corpus Christi and also in Kenedy County. (NOAA)
Showers and storms are pushing across South Texas this morning and into Mexico. Steadier rain is waiting offshore and looks as if it will push into Corpus Christi and points south for the later morning. The Valley may see more intermittent rain and thunderstorms.
Numerous thunderstorms are moving ashore from Harold from Matagorda Bay south into the Valley and Mexico. The steadier rain associated with Harold will move in near Corpus Christi and just south of there for the later morning and early afternoon. (RadarScope)
Within these thunderstorms, as occasionally occurs with tropical storms, isolated tornadoes are possible. Even some of the more intermittent and isolated showers well north of the center (toward El Campo or Victoria or just south of San Antonio) could produce an isolated, brief spin up. Something to be aware of in South Texas today.
Total rainfall will be on the order of 1 to 4 inches in South Texas, with the highest amounts just west of the Lower RGV back toward Laredo and into Mexico, where totals in isolated spots will approach 6 to 10 inches. Some of the rain may be heavy enough to produce isolated landslides in the mountains of Mexico, and flash flooding is possible in northern Coahuila and northern Nuevo Leon.
Rain will be welcome in South Texas, but in portions of northern Mexico it may produce some flash flooding or isolated mountain landslides. (NOAA)
Harold will quickly move inland today and tomorrow, and it should be into the Desert Southwest, aiding in some rainfall by tomorrow evening.
Tropical Storm Franklin
We’re all having a bit of a difficult time finding the exact location of Franklin’s center this morning, as it is presumed to be drifting northwest in the Caribbean.
Tropical Storm Franklin is very disorganized this morning as it presumably drifts northwest in the Caribbean. (Tropical Tidbits)
If you look at the satellite image above, you can just see South America’s coast at the bottom and Puerto Rico at the top right. Hispaniola is in the middle near the top. The bright colors indicate deep, intense thunderstorm activity. If you look closely, you’ll notice that the main area of storms is actually being pushed south. There are also a bunch of lighter looking clouds moving left to right toward those storms. That indicates a whole lot of wind shear in the atmosphere. Tropical storms do not like wind shear, as it inhibits their development. Overall, Franklin is a moisture-laden but extremely disorganized tropical storm. It’s not clear that Franklin will get much better organized over the next couple days as it moves north toward Hispaniola.
Tropical Storm Franklin should move across the Dominican Republic tomorrow. It may find a slightly better environment for organization once it gets out into the open Atlantic. (NOAA NHC)
Overall, Franklin’s main concern for people will be heavy rainfall, capable of producing flooding over Hispaniola, particularly in the Dominican Republic. The models differ on exactly where the heaviest rain will be, but they all put it in the southern Dominican Republic. The greatest uncertainty may be in southeast Haiti, where models have waffled a bit between manageable rainfall and some higher totals closer to 10 inches.
Rain totals continue to look significant over the next 2 to 3 days in Hispaniola, with 10 inches or more possible in spots, which will lead to flash flooding and the potential for mudslides. (Weathernerds.org)
Flash flooding and mudslides are possible across the Dominican Republic as Franklin passes by. Beyond Hispaniola, Franklin’s future remains up in the air. Modeling suggests it will likely become a hurricane over the open Atlantic. Exactly how close this gets to Bermuda on its way north is to be determined. There are even a couple model solutions now suggesting that Franklin comes even a bit farther west toward the Southeast coast a bit. I don’t want to speculate too much on this, particularly given that it’s currently tough to even figure out where Franklin’s center is. Bermuda should monitor Franklin’s progress closely, and folks on the U.S. East Coast should at least keep tabs on what’s happening in a couple days.
Other Atlantic systems
Tropical Depression Gert, east of the islands should dissipate today. Tropical Storm Emily dissipated yesterday. That is still on the big board, however, with a 20 percent chance of redeveloping in the open Atlantic as it curves out to sea.
The next system, Invest 92L, continues to plod along west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development odds are down to 50 percent this morning, as a very slow organizational process may occur with this system. I think if it’s like most Atlantic systems this year, there’s something likely to act against it and who knows if it can truly get off the ground. We’ll see.
Invest 92L west of the Cabo Verde Islands will struggle to get off the ground in the next few days. (Weathernerds.org)
That covers all the noise out there right now.
Fantasyland (beyond day 10): Mired Gyre
The only other area really showing up at all on modeling as a development risk is off the Yucatan at some point on a few models (not the majority). We’ve discussed this whole gyre thing for several posts now, and maybe it comes to fruition, maybe it doesn’t. There’s enough signal in the model noise to say there’s a meaningful chance it could happen. But exactly what that looks like, I’m not sure. The overall background state of the Atlantic may actually become more hostile to tropical development in the early days of September, perhaps allowing us to catch our breath before the season finale and/or curtain call. The 2023 season to date has thus far been an example of quantity over quality which hopefully continues to be the case.
Tropical Depression 9 will move into South Texas, where tropical storm warnings are now posted, with gusty winds and heavy rain tomorrow.
TD, TD Number Nine
The National Hurricane Center upgraded Invest 91L in the Gulf to Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 this morning and since its potential has been realized, it is now Tropical Depression 9. Despite these changes, they were mostly expected, and not much has changed from our morning post in terms of expected impacts in Texas and Mexico.
Tropical Depression 9 is expected to become Tropical Storm Harold tonight before making landfall in far South Texas on Tuesday morning. (NOAA NHC)
Tropical Storm Warnings are posted along the Texas coast from the Rio Grande River north past Corpus Christi to Port O’Connor. A Tropical Storm Watch extends north from there to Sargent, TX. Looking at TD 9 on satellite this afternoon shows a whole lot of storms. I said it this morning, and I’ll say it again. We are fortunate that this thing has a limited amount of time left over water.
Tropical Depression 9 is rather well defined over the Gulf this afternoon, and slow strengthening overnight seems likely before it runs out of water to feed on. (Tropical Tidbits)
It has all the ingredients you need in place to blow up into a big storm, except the most critical thing: Time. The depression is racing west at 18 miles per hour, which means it will be ashore in Texas by Tuesday morning. Impacts will be minor to moderate in South Texas, with the potential for some gusty winds to tropical storm force, mainly south of Corpus Christi and offshore. Meanwhile, beneficial rain will fall in South Texas, where generally 1 to 3 inches will fall. There will likely be a few pockets of 4 to 5 inches in Brush Country and more into the mountains of Mexico.
Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches, with pockets of 4 or 5 inches are likely in much of far south Texas into Mexico. (NOAA)
Rainfall impacts will be minimal north of there, with Houston and San Antonio mostly missing out on anything. In fact, with a bit of a breeze in between the heat ridge to our north and TD 9 to our south, we may have a slightly enhanced risk of fire danger in parts of Texas again on Tuesday. When it fails, it fails hard.
In addition to heavy rain in South Texas, there is also a chance for isolated tornadoes, as is often the case with landfalling tropical systems. But the main issue to impact your daily life in that area will be heavy rain.
By Wednesday, TD 9 or Harold will make its way across Mexico, and a piece of its remnants may actually find its way into the monsoon flow in New Mexico and Arizona, which would bring some beneficial rain to those areas that mostly missed out on Hilary’s rainfall this past weekend. Rare is the tropical system that is mostly a net positive, but PTC 9 may very well be just that. We’ll keep an eye on rain totals tomorrow to make sure things stay under control.
Elsewhere: Franklin looks to be a big rainmaker in Hispaniola
Franklin’s forecast is mostly unchanged over the next couple days, except for rainfall. There was a bit of a healthy shift west in the highest forecast totals over the next 3 days, which brings the heaviest rainfall a little farther west in Hispaniola, closer to the Dominican Republic border with Haiti.
The heaviest rains from Franklin will fall on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic, but some model guidance has nudged the bullseye west a bit, closer to the border with Haiti. (Weathernerds.org)
Flooding is likely in the southern portion of Hispaniola. Obviously this area is occasionally susceptible to bad bouts of flooding, so hopefully preparations are being made to manage this as best as possible.
Seis horas más tarde y las corridas más recientes de los modelos de pronóstico muestran mayor consenso en cuanto a una ruta preocupante para República Dominicana. Nótese la posición inicial del centro más al sur que esta mañana, reportada por el avión caza. (via @TropicalTidbits) pic.twitter.com/m5BNUmwUz6
Franklin is still expected to come ashore as a tropical storm, though I suppose the odds of a low-end hurricane are not zero. Regardless, the impacts will be similar. As much as 10 to 15 inches of rain may fall on parts of Hispaniola, particularly in the southern Dominican Republic. There’s a good deal of uncertainty on what happens beyond Hispaniola as it lifts north into the Atlantic, something we’ll try to hone in more on in the coming days.
We’ll have more on both of these systems in the morning.
A tropical wave in the Gulf offers a slight development chance and some beneficial rains for south Texas, and of the three tropical storms in the Atlantic this morning, only Franklin needs watching for land impacts in Hispaniola.
Tying a bow around Hilary
We hope that all our new readers in California and the Southwest are doing ok this morning after Hilary’s rains yesterday. It sounds as if the mountains and some parts of the desert were particularly hard hit overnight with numerous debris flows, mudslides, and road washouts reported. A better assessment of the damage should emerge today.
Current road closures in @Caltrans9: 🚫State Route 190🚫 🚫State Route 136🚫 🚫State Route 178 from @DeathValleyNPS to Shoshone🚫 🚫State Route 58 from Towerline Road to Exit 165🚫 🚫State Route 127 from Baker to Tecopa Hot Springs🚫 🚫State Route 14 from Cal City to SR 178 W🚫 pic.twitter.com/duiOSTo1tc
While we are a tropics-focused site, we hope you’ll find our information interesting to share with your friends and family. And we may cover more than just hurricanes here eventually, in which case California would be a focus of ours. We are happy to have you here.
Gulf system & Texas rain
First up today, let’s talk about the Gulf of Mexico. We have seen no real progress toward better organization overnight from the tropical wave, Invest 91L in the eastern Gulf.
Invest 91L is not much better organized this morning, which may be a good thing given its size and the look it has on satellite. It still has a better chance than not of becoming a depression or tropical storm before reaching Texas Tuesday morning. (Weathernerds.org)
Just as a quick reminder: Invests are really just meteorological classifications given to tropical disturbances so extra data can be compiled about them; literally “an area of investigation.” There’s no strict definition, but they go from 90 to 99 and then recycle again. In the Atlantic we use “L” as an identifying abbreviation. The East Pacific is “E,” West Pacific “W,” etc.
Anyway, 91L has a broad circulation this morning but does not appear to be tightening up any as of yet. The good news is that this system has about 24 hours left over water before it comes ashore in South Texas. The most likely outcome at this point is an approach just south of Corpus Christi or north of Brownsville.
The most likely track of 91L brings it between Corpus Christi and Brownsville in South Texas, though it’s not out of the realm of possibility that it comes in south of the Rio Grande Valley in Mexico. (Tomer Burg)
Given that we have 24 hours left and given how this thing looks on satellite, my hunch is that if we see this upgraded we may skip the formalities and go right to a tropical storm. The next name on the list would be Harold. At worst, this would probably become a low-end tropical storm (45 to 55 mph maximum sustained winds, mostly in heavier rain bands and over water).
More importantly, this will be a rainmaker for Texas. The entire state desperately needs rain.
Drought is getting extreme to exceptional in much of Texas. Rainfall from a steadily moving tropical system would be mostly welcome at this point. (US Drought Monitor)
East Texas and the upper Texas coast are in extreme drought, with pockets of exceptional drought in Hill Country northwest of San Antonio. A quick moving tropical system would be virtually 100 percent positive in Texas right now. This will help. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches with higher amounts are expected for South Texas, mainly south of Corpus Christi into the Rio Grande Valley and west toward Laredo. Northern Mexico will also receive healthy rains from this.
Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches on average will be expected in South Texas, with pockets of higher amounts in parts of Brush Country and in the mountains of northern Mexico. (Pivotal Weather)
While this will not end drought for South Texas, it will greatly help. Unfortunately, the hardest hit parts of the state are expecting little to no rain this week, meaning drought and fire danger will worsen. See our companion site, Space City Weather for more on that.
Franklin to turn toward Hispaniola
Yesterday afternoon, Invest 90L in the Gulf was upgraded to Tropical Storm Franklin. Franklin is impressive looking this morning, less so for organization and more for how much moisture it is carrying.
Tropical Storm Franklin should make a hard right tonight toward Hispaniola, bringing very heavy rain to the Dominican Republic. (NOAA NHC)
Franklin is expected to turn to the north, almost like something you’d see in autumn. Why? An upper level low and a fairly deep trough for August over the western Atlantic will act to scoop it up, as high pressure over the southern Plains effectively acts as a “block” to letting this come west.
The sun rises on a moisture-laden Tropical Storm Franklin in the Caribbean (Tropical Tidbits)
So Franklin will make a hard right toward Hispaniola tonight or tomorrow. Exactly where this turn happens will determine where on Hispaniola Franklin comes ashore. This will have implications on specific rain totals for both Haiti and the Dominican Republic. As of now, the heaviest rains from Franklin are poised to hit on the Dominican Republic side of Hispaniola, where upwards of 8 to 12 inches or more will be possible, especially in the eastern part of the country.
Flooding is possible there, and some of it could be relatively significant, in addition to tropical storm conditions. For Puerto Rico, you’ll be on the eastern flank of Franklin’s circulation, which should allow for occasional bands of rain to push north into the island, and this too could lead to some more localized heavy rain or flash flooding issues with totals of 3 to 6 inches possible in the worst cases.
Franklin will likely hit Hispaniola as a moderate to strong tropical storm. The island will weaken it somewhat as it emerges to the north, but then it may find a more hospitable environment out ahead of it to gain strength. There is a good chance we could have Hurricane Franklin by the end of the week over the open Atlantic. Initially, Franklin will turn north or northeast. Except there’s a bit of a problem. Models indicate a ridge in the eastern Atlantic may try to build west enough to bump Franklin back off to the northwest, which means there is at least some chance Bermuda will be in play for this as it goes north. Eventually Franklin will turn back out to sea, but where that happens relative to Bermuda is impossible to say right now. So interests in Bermuda will want to follow Franklin’s progress closely in the coming days.
Additionally, if Franklin can get its act together in the Atlantic, there may be some rough surf and rip tide conditions possible on the U.S. East Coast next weekend.
The rest of the Atlantic
Tropical Depression 6? Now Tropical Storm Gert and soon to be history. Tropical Storm Emily formed yesterday from Invest 98L, and that should dissipate today. It is no threat to land. Behind Emily, we have Invest 92L, which has a solid chance at becoming a named storm in the next few days.
Invest 92L will gradually get its act together and has a good chance of developing while on its way out to sea in the open Atlantic. (Weathernerds.org)
It will likely also turn out to sea.
What’s next?
Looking out in time, once we unclog the Atlantic of the current logjam of systems, we can focus our attention more on two areas. One will be the potential that a system can spin off a potential “gyre” circulation over Central America, but that is looking a bit less impressive today than it did last week. The other area will be off Africa, where additional waves may emerge and threaten development in the next couple weeks. In truth, nothing looks especially concerning right now as we head into the start of September. Obviously, we’ll keep you posted.
